UFC Fight Night 171 Post-Fight Analysis
Another great UFC event in the books, and another one where I got reasonably good results. Break has not left me rusty at all (though I guess it might just be luck).
Of course the pace his corner hyped him up to keep was non-sustainable for his physiology and when the movement waned, Texeira started landing more and to devastating effect. Sadly we again saw disgusting cornerwork as Smith was sent out for the fifth round despite not being remotely competitive any more. Honestly if they even asked "how you feel bro?" or something like that and got very firm answer from Smith that he wants to go on, I would give them a pass for sending him out there, but Smith's energy was awful and he really had no business going back to the fight for final round. Seriously what is up with these corners and their disregard to their fighter's safety?
Personally, I probably would have stopped the fight already in the 3rd when Smith got initially hurt, but I probably would be a hated and jumpy referee.
In the co-main Ben Rothwell and Ovince St. Preux fought a surprisingly close fight. It seemed to be going the way I predicted initially, with Rothwell seemingly being too big and durable and just walking Ovince down while he did nothing except circle away. Overall Rothwell did much more, but despite landing a lot of shots, St. Preux never seemed really rocked, whereas Rothwell got caught a few times and was on a little bit shaky legs.
Drew Dober turned out to be bad matchup to throw a prospect into and Hernandez took a lot more damage than guy of his talent at his age should be taking. Hopefully they start slowplaying him going forward instead of throwing him to the sharks nonstop, otherwise his growth will be stunted. Herb saved him from getting completely flatlined.
Ricky Simon and Ray Borg had a funky fight which would be something you expect. Borg really fought well, having the best moments of the fight, but they were overall just too few and far in between to get the decision.
Andrei Arlovski showed that he is not yet done as a top-level heavyweight. Lins was competitive with him, but in the end Arlovski never was too troubled and put in much more volume than the younger fighter. He can still take a shot and fights sharply, he will be around.
Sijara Eubanks was also clearly better than Sarah Moras and cruised to a decision despite having much the smaller frame. Sijara looked improved from last showing, but I am not convinced she can make a great run at 135.
Omar Morales and Gabriel Benitez went to war and we saw probably the worst cut I have ever seen in MMA match (mind you I have not watched that many years) as Benitez kept kicking Morales' knees. He split open his shin so that the bone was showing and ultimately lost a tight decision.
Brian Kelleher was another experienced veteran on the card that everyone was overlooking, so another underdog cashed when he put Azure's lights out after starting to take over the fight the longer it continued. I doubt Kelleher can make a title run, but he is very close to the very elite of the division.
Chase Sherman has improved a lot in his stint outside the UFC. He has the skills and physical tools to be really top level fighter in this UFC heavyweight division. Villanueva found himself completely outgunned both in size and technique so it was no wonder he got finished early on in the 2nd round.
Worst bet is bit trickier to pick. I guess Lins put really disappointing performance. Suppose it shows that winning PFL heavyweight division is not that big of an achivement as the competition there is no the sternest.
I finally updated my spreadsheets to see where I stand in the long run. Since starting writing previews for every fight in September, I have won 180 out of 289 bets, getting a correct pick rate of 62,28 %. I am almost 40 average betsizes up - so if I was a real baller and making on average 1000 dollar bets, I would have made close to handsome 40k this year. Not bad for something you really enjoy doing. Of course, I am not an actual baller so my betsizes are much smaller.
If I keep getting picks right though, who knows how big I will start betting.
There won't be much respite for me from MMA as this weekend is yet another event. Until then...
Main Card
Both Main Event fighters outperformed at least my expectations and they ended up putting together a memorable war. Glover Texeira turned back the clock by showing sharp boxing, devastating top control and very good durability. It was always gonna take absorbing some hard shots to survive against Anthony Smith, but Smith also looked very sharp early on.Of course the pace his corner hyped him up to keep was non-sustainable for his physiology and when the movement waned, Texeira started landing more and to devastating effect. Sadly we again saw disgusting cornerwork as Smith was sent out for the fifth round despite not being remotely competitive any more. Honestly if they even asked "how you feel bro?" or something like that and got very firm answer from Smith that he wants to go on, I would give them a pass for sending him out there, but Smith's energy was awful and he really had no business going back to the fight for final round. Seriously what is up with these corners and their disregard to their fighter's safety?
Personally, I probably would have stopped the fight already in the 3rd when Smith got initially hurt, but I probably would be a hated and jumpy referee.
In the co-main Ben Rothwell and Ovince St. Preux fought a surprisingly close fight. It seemed to be going the way I predicted initially, with Rothwell seemingly being too big and durable and just walking Ovince down while he did nothing except circle away. Overall Rothwell did much more, but despite landing a lot of shots, St. Preux never seemed really rocked, whereas Rothwell got caught a few times and was on a little bit shaky legs.
Drew Dober turned out to be bad matchup to throw a prospect into and Hernandez took a lot more damage than guy of his talent at his age should be taking. Hopefully they start slowplaying him going forward instead of throwing him to the sharks nonstop, otherwise his growth will be stunted. Herb saved him from getting completely flatlined.
Ricky Simon and Ray Borg had a funky fight which would be something you expect. Borg really fought well, having the best moments of the fight, but they were overall just too few and far in between to get the decision.
Andrei Arlovski showed that he is not yet done as a top-level heavyweight. Lins was competitive with him, but in the end Arlovski never was too troubled and put in much more volume than the younger fighter. He can still take a shot and fights sharply, he will be around.
Prelims
Michael Johnson had everything under control. He was leagues above Moises on the feet, just putting on a clinic. Then the most Michael Johnson thing that could have happened, happened. Moises that seemed to not have any chance was on alert to start the round two with shot that just showed how desperate he was to get the fight to the mat. That was exactly what he did and then promptly leglocked Johnson for a tap. Seriously, how often do we see leglocks work in MMA? It's funny how it has to be Johnson it happens to.Sijara Eubanks was also clearly better than Sarah Moras and cruised to a decision despite having much the smaller frame. Sijara looked improved from last showing, but I am not convinced she can make a great run at 135.
Omar Morales and Gabriel Benitez went to war and we saw probably the worst cut I have ever seen in MMA match (mind you I have not watched that many years) as Benitez kept kicking Morales' knees. He split open his shin so that the bone was showing and ultimately lost a tight decision.
Brian Kelleher was another experienced veteran on the card that everyone was overlooking, so another underdog cashed when he put Azure's lights out after starting to take over the fight the longer it continued. I doubt Kelleher can make a title run, but he is very close to the very elite of the division.
Chase Sherman has improved a lot in his stint outside the UFC. He has the skills and physical tools to be really top level fighter in this UFC heavyweight division. Villanueva found himself completely outgunned both in size and technique so it was no wonder he got finished early on in the 2nd round.
My picks
6 out of 10 right does not sound that great, but it is not about how many you get right, it is about how difficult picks you pull off. Today was a night of underdogs and thus I ended up getting a bigger win than in the UFC 249 earlier. On both co-main and main event I cashed with the underdogs with my two biggest bets of the night. Picking Texeira was my best pick as he did not look badly troubled at any point and was clearly the better fighter compared to Smith, despite being a big underdog.Worst bet is bit trickier to pick. I guess Lins put really disappointing performance. Suppose it shows that winning PFL heavyweight division is not that big of an achivement as the competition there is no the sternest.
I finally updated my spreadsheets to see where I stand in the long run. Since starting writing previews for every fight in September, I have won 180 out of 289 bets, getting a correct pick rate of 62,28 %. I am almost 40 average betsizes up - so if I was a real baller and making on average 1000 dollar bets, I would have made close to handsome 40k this year. Not bad for something you really enjoy doing. Of course, I am not an actual baller so my betsizes are much smaller.
If I keep getting picks right though, who knows how big I will start betting.
There won't be much respite for me from MMA as this weekend is yet another event. Until then...
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