UFC on ESPN 9 Previews & Predictions
Thanks to Covid-19 slowing everything down, my main computer is still not in use, hence the less researched previews have to continue. Results so far have not been too bad, but the longer this goes on, the less reliable my predictions become. Still, I should be able to get half right at least on a night of pretty clear match-ups.
His performance against Usman was absolutely abysmal though. It is not that he was second best that really surprised anyone, but the fact he lost every second of that fight and did not even have that flash of power. When you combine that with the fact that he has been away for 14 months and is already 38 years old... It becomes really hard to pick him.
So it all comes down to how well Woodley has recovered mentally from the loss, and how much has he lost physically in the meantime for aging. His wrestling should still be good enough to keep the fight standing, and even if he does end up on the ground, he should be able to hang in there with Burns despite the grappling credentials the guy has.
Both guys have good power to stop the other guy, but both of them are tough to finish as well, each having only been finished once in their career.
All in all I don't think we will see a submission here since neither has really the pace the wear the other guy out. So I lean towards it being a cautious kickboxing fight with not a lot of volume. We saw against Wonderboy that Tyron should be able to edge that. If there is a finish, it would most likely be Woodley via KO, but I am leaning towards this being a decision.
Tyron Woodley via Unanimous Decision.
Ivanov via UD.
Daniel Rodriguez vs. Gabriel Green
If I recall correctly, Rodriguez is the biggest moneymaker for me so far since I started doing these carefully researched and fully previewed bets. Him beating Tim Means in his UFC debut was something not a lot of people expected, and to be fair it is not like I had him as a favorite either, but sometimes you gotta play the odds.
This time he welcomes an UFC newcomer Green into the Octagon. Green has not fought in over a year, but is riding a 6 fight winning streak and at 27, is still very much an improving fighter. Problem for him is that he has already been KOd twice, which is an issue when facing a relatively powerful and crafty guy like Rodriguez.
Green is a good grappler, and he is hittable cause he fights with the kind of pressuring style that drowns people. Still, I am not convinced he will be able to take it if Rodriguez starts landing on him.
Daniel Rodriguez via 2nd round KO.
Roosevelt Roberts vs. Brok Weaver
Man I just hate to see Weaver back in there so soon. Sure, in the record books his last fight was a win, but it was a win through disqualification and he took a bad knockout in that one, and now he is already back against a rangy, talented prospect in Roosevelt Roberts? I just don't see this going well for Weaver, who is as game as they come, tough and full of energy, but physically at a clear disadvantage here.
With his chin so recently cracked, I just cant rely on him to grind out some sort of a decision victory, he will likely be finished early.
Roosevelt Robers via 2nd round KO.
Hannah Cifers vs. Mackenzie Dern
After taking her first loss, Dern returns to face Cifers and just like always with great jiujitsu practitioners, the key point of the fight will be Dern's offensive wrestling against Cifers takedown defence. If Cifers can reliably stop the takedowns, it becomes a kickboxing fight.
Truth is though that Cifers has been subbed by worse girls and Dern and although this probably would be 50/50 on the feet, Cifers is also hittable and Dern can hit hard, so I don't see it going well. Obviously UFC wants this to be a bounceback fight for Dern.
Dern via 2nd round submission.
Katlyn Chookagian vs. Antonina Shevchenko
Chookagian took a loss against Valentina after being thoroughly humbled, but now finds herself in a much more winnable matchup against Valentina's sister, Antonina. She is by far the inferior one of the Shevchenko sisters, but in a wasteland of a division Antonina just might soon start staking claim to being the second best fighter.
Of course being 35 you can hardly call her a prospect any more, but either way Chookagian will be a good test to see if she has any chance of becoming a title contender and if she has learned anything from her Modafferi loss.
Antonina Shevchenko via SD.
Spike Carlyle vs. Billy Quarantillo
Carlyle made me a good sum of money in his debut, so I like the guy already! Carlyle is hard to takedown and carries some serious power in his hand, as is evident from him having three straight first round KOs. I would not be surprised if we see another here.
Carlyle via 1st round KO.
Klidson Abreu vs. Jamahal Hill
I like Abreu, the guy looks a bit like a guy I fought in my Muay Thai debut, and he is tough with decent skills everywhere. His 1-2 record in the UFC makes him seem worse than he really is, after all he had to face Ankalaev who is one of the top prospects of the division, as well taking a close split decision loss in the latest fight. As for how good Hill is, that is something of a question mark still. He is unbeaten and obviously has talents physically, but the fight against Stosic hardly proves that he is UFC level.
Jamahal Hill via UD.
Tim Elliott vs. Brandon Royval
This one is tough cause Elliott seems past his best, but Royval is bit of an unknown quantity. He is riding high though with couple of fast submissions in his last few fights, so maybe he can pull that off against Elliott too? Regardless it is a big step-up in competition and although Elliott has ugly record, he has really only lost against top guys.
Tim Elliot via UD.
Casey Kenney vs. Louis Smolka
Smolka has been on the periphery of contention in the flyweight division for a while but has been unable to mount a real title challenge. Of course both guys are now fighting in 135 pound division. Kenney took a loss last time around against Merab Dvalishvili, but no shame in losing to that guy, he is one of the best prospects of the division and puts an absolutely relentless pace.
Smolka is unlikely to do that. He might pose some problems with his submission game but I think Kenney can survive whatever Smolka throws and then figure out where is the best chance for him to win the fight. As the better wrestler, he can then keep the fight there.
Kenney via UD.
Chris Gutierrez vs. Vince Morales
Not much that I recall from these guys, Gutierrez is a solid guy everywhere at least and Morales seems like decent too, both are peripherally UFC level guys at 135. Might go either way, kind of a meh fight for me, I lean towards Gutierrez but if the odds are lopsided I will switch my pick.
Chris Gutierrez via UD.
Main Event: Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns
This is a tough one to crack. Burns has improved, but he does not seem quite title caliber in my view. Prime Woodley should beat him at least 4 times out of 5. What kind of Woodley are we gonna see though? The guy has fought only 7 times since start of 2015, having perhaps the most lackluster string of title defences in the process. Not really criticism per se, to even have tight and boring fights with likes of Wonderboy and Maia you have to be world class.His performance against Usman was absolutely abysmal though. It is not that he was second best that really surprised anyone, but the fact he lost every second of that fight and did not even have that flash of power. When you combine that with the fact that he has been away for 14 months and is already 38 years old... It becomes really hard to pick him.
So it all comes down to how well Woodley has recovered mentally from the loss, and how much has he lost physically in the meantime for aging. His wrestling should still be good enough to keep the fight standing, and even if he does end up on the ground, he should be able to hang in there with Burns despite the grappling credentials the guy has.
Both guys have good power to stop the other guy, but both of them are tough to finish as well, each having only been finished once in their career.
All in all I don't think we will see a submission here since neither has really the pace the wear the other guy out. So I lean towards it being a cautious kickboxing fight with not a lot of volume. We saw against Wonderboy that Tyron should be able to edge that. If there is a finish, it would most likely be Woodley via KO, but I am leaning towards this being a decision.
Tyron Woodley via Unanimous Decision.
Co-Main Event: Blagoy Ivanov vs. Augusto Sakai
Big step up in competition for Sakai, who has been knocking guys out left and right, but for some reason still leaves me unconvinced. If Sakai KOs Ivanov, I will have to concede that Sakai is the real deal. In the meantime though, Ivanov is durable as hell and has only lost against the very elite of the division. I expect him to clinchgrind this fight into a decision victory, but it might be another close decision to piss into my cereal.Ivanov via UD.
Daniel Rodriguez vs. Gabriel Green
If I recall correctly, Rodriguez is the biggest moneymaker for me so far since I started doing these carefully researched and fully previewed bets. Him beating Tim Means in his UFC debut was something not a lot of people expected, and to be fair it is not like I had him as a favorite either, but sometimes you gotta play the odds.
This time he welcomes an UFC newcomer Green into the Octagon. Green has not fought in over a year, but is riding a 6 fight winning streak and at 27, is still very much an improving fighter. Problem for him is that he has already been KOd twice, which is an issue when facing a relatively powerful and crafty guy like Rodriguez.
Green is a good grappler, and he is hittable cause he fights with the kind of pressuring style that drowns people. Still, I am not convinced he will be able to take it if Rodriguez starts landing on him.
Daniel Rodriguez via 2nd round KO.
Roosevelt Roberts vs. Brok Weaver
Man I just hate to see Weaver back in there so soon. Sure, in the record books his last fight was a win, but it was a win through disqualification and he took a bad knockout in that one, and now he is already back against a rangy, talented prospect in Roosevelt Roberts? I just don't see this going well for Weaver, who is as game as they come, tough and full of energy, but physically at a clear disadvantage here.
With his chin so recently cracked, I just cant rely on him to grind out some sort of a decision victory, he will likely be finished early.
Roosevelt Robers via 2nd round KO.
Hannah Cifers vs. Mackenzie Dern
After taking her first loss, Dern returns to face Cifers and just like always with great jiujitsu practitioners, the key point of the fight will be Dern's offensive wrestling against Cifers takedown defence. If Cifers can reliably stop the takedowns, it becomes a kickboxing fight.
Truth is though that Cifers has been subbed by worse girls and Dern and although this probably would be 50/50 on the feet, Cifers is also hittable and Dern can hit hard, so I don't see it going well. Obviously UFC wants this to be a bounceback fight for Dern.
Dern via 2nd round submission.
Katlyn Chookagian vs. Antonina Shevchenko
Chookagian took a loss against Valentina after being thoroughly humbled, but now finds herself in a much more winnable matchup against Valentina's sister, Antonina. She is by far the inferior one of the Shevchenko sisters, but in a wasteland of a division Antonina just might soon start staking claim to being the second best fighter.
Of course being 35 you can hardly call her a prospect any more, but either way Chookagian will be a good test to see if she has any chance of becoming a title contender and if she has learned anything from her Modafferi loss.
Antonina Shevchenko via SD.
Spike Carlyle vs. Billy Quarantillo
Carlyle made me a good sum of money in his debut, so I like the guy already! Carlyle is hard to takedown and carries some serious power in his hand, as is evident from him having three straight first round KOs. I would not be surprised if we see another here.
Carlyle via 1st round KO.
Klidson Abreu vs. Jamahal Hill
I like Abreu, the guy looks a bit like a guy I fought in my Muay Thai debut, and he is tough with decent skills everywhere. His 1-2 record in the UFC makes him seem worse than he really is, after all he had to face Ankalaev who is one of the top prospects of the division, as well taking a close split decision loss in the latest fight. As for how good Hill is, that is something of a question mark still. He is unbeaten and obviously has talents physically, but the fight against Stosic hardly proves that he is UFC level.
Jamahal Hill via UD.
Tim Elliott vs. Brandon Royval
This one is tough cause Elliott seems past his best, but Royval is bit of an unknown quantity. He is riding high though with couple of fast submissions in his last few fights, so maybe he can pull that off against Elliott too? Regardless it is a big step-up in competition and although Elliott has ugly record, he has really only lost against top guys.
Tim Elliot via UD.
Casey Kenney vs. Louis Smolka
Smolka has been on the periphery of contention in the flyweight division for a while but has been unable to mount a real title challenge. Of course both guys are now fighting in 135 pound division. Kenney took a loss last time around against Merab Dvalishvili, but no shame in losing to that guy, he is one of the best prospects of the division and puts an absolutely relentless pace.
Smolka is unlikely to do that. He might pose some problems with his submission game but I think Kenney can survive whatever Smolka throws and then figure out where is the best chance for him to win the fight. As the better wrestler, he can then keep the fight there.
Kenney via UD.
Chris Gutierrez vs. Vince Morales
Not much that I recall from these guys, Gutierrez is a solid guy everywhere at least and Morales seems like decent too, both are peripherally UFC level guys at 135. Might go either way, kind of a meh fight for me, I lean towards Gutierrez but if the odds are lopsided I will switch my pick.
Chris Gutierrez via UD.
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