UFC 250 Preview & Predictions
I wrote so confidently last week that I would get proper previews done for this week's event, but corona strikes again - or something - and my computer parts STILL haven't shipped so I could not do proper research. I did watch some clips from past fights but mostly this is going by feel again, therefore expect lower success rate than usually in my previews.
So all in all Spencer should be outgunned everywhere here and I am worried she just eats one too many of those ridiculously powerful Nunes punches and gets knocked out. If it goes deep, it could get interesting, but Nunes has gone deep in her fights and showed no signs of gassing, so while earlier on her career long fights were an issue, Nunes seems to have found a solution that manages to combine both incredible power and being conditioned for a long fight.
Amanda Nunes via 2nd round KO.
Cody is too young to have his chin cracked completely yet, despite being constantly KOd I still think he can take a shot as long as he stays responsible defensively. His resume against very high level competition is not that wide yet though. He got his title shot pretty fast and when he was very young. His title-winning performance was great, but his 4 high-level fights have 1-3 record.
As for Assuncao, he is also coming off of back-to-back losses, but has much wider resume at the highest level of the division. Losing to Sandhagen and Moraes is nothing to be ashamed of, and he is now 1-1 overall against Moraes (as well as against Dillashaw) and has wins over the likes of Font and Sterling too. He is right up there at the top of the rankings.
So that makes me kinda lean toward him being more likely to keep it together for 3 rounds and just find enough openings to pick off Cody. Perhaps get him emotional and find that opening for heavy shot, or simply controlling performance through takedowns. On the other hand, Cody can definitely hurt Assuncao and should be the faster fighter closer to their prime. It's really question of if you believe Cody to have learned anything from those KO losses he has suffered.
Raphael Assuncao via UD.
Cory Sandhagen vs. Aljamain Sterling
Sandhagen looked really tremendous in his last fight against Assuncao. However, Sterling has been looking great as well lately, putting together a 4-fight win streak since that KO loss to Moraes. Another pair of guys who is right up there for contention in the division, ironically I think whoever wins this fight has much more claim for #1 contender spot than the guys fighting after them.
As for who that is, it is really hard to say. I think Aljo can hang in the stand-up with Sandhagen, but his grappling could be the real difference maker here. It took me a while to get fully convinced about Sandhagen, and I am convinced now as far stand-up goes - although Sterling can hang with him, he will get outstruck, but I am not yet sure if he can stop wrestling attack from a highest level fighter. This fight will show what is the case in that regard.
Cory Sandhagen via SD.
Neil Magny vs. Anthony Rocco Martin
This is a great, interesting match-up. Magny came back from a long layoff and looked absolutely great in his last fight. It should be extremely close fight too, cause while technically Martin is probably ahead in the standup, Magny can but the pressure and volume on him, and he can always just force it into a more of a clinch affair, which I believe Magny will have advantage in.
Martin showed against Maia that he can keep it tight and survive in the grappling as well, but Magny might just elect to control the fight against the fence. This might go either way, expect a very tight match-up.
Tony Martin via SD.
Sean O'Malley vs. Eddie Wineland
O'Malley has always been flashy fighter but I was not entirely sold on him until his last performance. Now I am, and he should get past Wineland pretty easily. O'Malley is for real and has been improving with every performance in the octagon. Wineland is a tough veteran, but he has taken 3 KO losses already in his career and his recent wins have been against fading guys who are barely UFC level.
So I do not expect this to be a close fight. Sure, Eddie can use his experience and force the technical outside fighter O'Malley into a grinding matchup, but I just don't think he has enough chin to keep eating the damage he will face from the counters.
Sean O'Malley via 1st round KO.
Chase Hooper vs. Alex Caceres
Hooper is young but I hope to lord he fixes his striking, or rather has fixed it already, cause he absorbs so much damage per fight that that he will wash out of fighting by 25 if he keeps it going like that. He definitely has a way to win against Caceres but man if it isn't a big step-up in competition. Like I really worry Caceres can make it a massacre if he just fights smart, keeps it on the outside and stays patient. Of course it is Caceres so it is also just like him to just goof the whole fight off.
In a way it is similar to the Kron Gracie matchup that Caceres had, but Kron is physically stronger than Hooper and I would also say better in the standup. Plus you would hope Caceres has learned something from that.
Caceres is not heavy-handed guy so while I do think he will test Hooper's chin a lot, I do not expect him to one-shot him to oblivion - if KO happens, it will be due to accumulation of damage.
Alex Caceres via 3rd round TKO.
Ian Heinisch vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Heinisch should have this. Meerschaert has improved his striking and probably can keep it close, but he will accept losing rounds too easily and I don't see him managing to force the grappling against Heinisch. So it will come down to the striking and Heinisch is the better one in that regard.
Ian Heinisch via UD.
Cody Stamann vs. Brian Kelleher
Quickest turnaround we have seen in a while for Brian Kelleher. Kelleher is a crafty veteran and has showed that he can still take a shot, but Stamann is entering his prime and just overall should be the better fighter. Expect it to be very competitive, but Stamann should pull away in the end.
Stamann via UD.
Charles Byrd vs. Maki Pitolo
Byrd has taken back-to-back TKO losses and has to face Coconut Bombz now? Surely it will not end well, particularly if Pitolo learns from the mistakes he did in his last fight. He was the better fighter in that fight, just did not perform to his skill.
Maki Pitolo via 2nd round KO.
Jussier Formiga vs. Alex Perez
Perez has great skills and massive potential, but really has not faced the level of competition that Formiga has. Still, I would rate these two guys very evenly matched in terms of skill. Perez is approaching his prime, whereas Formiga probably is already hitting the point where the best performances have already been seen.
It definitely is not an easy fight to predict in that regard, but the fact Formiga has taken back-to-back losses seems to suggest he is on a decline. 35 is old in flyweight division.
Alex Perez via SD.
Alonzo Menifield vs. Devin Clark
I am big on this Menifield kid. The guy is 9-0 and no one has survived longer than 5.5 minutes with him. Eventually there will come someone who will be able to take him to deep waters, but I really don't think Devin Clark will be that guy. Menifield has incredible power, is very offensively potent, and Clark just... isn't very good. He is barely good enough to remain in the UFC, and not much better than the opposition Menifield dispatched already.
Lot of guys that Clark beat by decision are already out of UFC, and it might be that so is Clark soon.
Menifield via 1st round KO.
Evan Dunham vs. Herbert Burns
Dunham is a blast from the past, quite literally since the guy has not won a fight since 2016. That is a long time ago, and it has been almost 2 years since he last fought. There will be plenty of ring rust, and at 38 you have to really doubt if he is gonna have much durability left. After all, he has been KOd in his last two fights.
Herbert Burns is not the biggest power guy of course, so that might actually work for Dunham's favor, the more experienced fighter might be able to hang with the grappler on the ground and take the fight deep, and then who knows what will happen? I can't trust for the to happen though.
Herbert Burns via 2nd round submission.
Main Event: Amanda Nunes vs. Felicia Spencer
Well, Spencer showed against Cyborg that she can take a shot, but can she take the kind of shot Nunes puts out? Is Nunes really more powerful than Cyborg? Some signs seem to suggest that she is, either way it is not hard to hit Spencer so I expect her to absorb some hellacious shots in this fight. She has some ways to make it competitive through clinch and grappling I suppose, but that is more to beat Nunes via attrition, since Nunes is a good grappler as well, something Cyborg wasn't.So all in all Spencer should be outgunned everywhere here and I am worried she just eats one too many of those ridiculously powerful Nunes punches and gets knocked out. If it goes deep, it could get interesting, but Nunes has gone deep in her fights and showed no signs of gassing, so while earlier on her career long fights were an issue, Nunes seems to have found a solution that manages to combine both incredible power and being conditioned for a long fight.
Amanda Nunes via 2nd round KO.
Co-Main Event: Cody Garbrandt vs. Raphael Assuncao
Cody No Love is an interesting fighter for sure. He is obviously heavy-handed, but that in and of itself can mask for lack of ability. But when he won the title it was not a flash KO, it was a full dismantling of at the time still seemingly unbeatable Dominick Cruz. It has all gone wrong since then, with Cody suffering 3 back-to-back KO losses.Cody is too young to have his chin cracked completely yet, despite being constantly KOd I still think he can take a shot as long as he stays responsible defensively. His resume against very high level competition is not that wide yet though. He got his title shot pretty fast and when he was very young. His title-winning performance was great, but his 4 high-level fights have 1-3 record.
As for Assuncao, he is also coming off of back-to-back losses, but has much wider resume at the highest level of the division. Losing to Sandhagen and Moraes is nothing to be ashamed of, and he is now 1-1 overall against Moraes (as well as against Dillashaw) and has wins over the likes of Font and Sterling too. He is right up there at the top of the rankings.
So that makes me kinda lean toward him being more likely to keep it together for 3 rounds and just find enough openings to pick off Cody. Perhaps get him emotional and find that opening for heavy shot, or simply controlling performance through takedowns. On the other hand, Cody can definitely hurt Assuncao and should be the faster fighter closer to their prime. It's really question of if you believe Cody to have learned anything from those KO losses he has suffered.
Raphael Assuncao via UD.
Cory Sandhagen vs. Aljamain Sterling
Sandhagen looked really tremendous in his last fight against Assuncao. However, Sterling has been looking great as well lately, putting together a 4-fight win streak since that KO loss to Moraes. Another pair of guys who is right up there for contention in the division, ironically I think whoever wins this fight has much more claim for #1 contender spot than the guys fighting after them.
As for who that is, it is really hard to say. I think Aljo can hang in the stand-up with Sandhagen, but his grappling could be the real difference maker here. It took me a while to get fully convinced about Sandhagen, and I am convinced now as far stand-up goes - although Sterling can hang with him, he will get outstruck, but I am not yet sure if he can stop wrestling attack from a highest level fighter. This fight will show what is the case in that regard.
Cory Sandhagen via SD.
Neil Magny vs. Anthony Rocco Martin
This is a great, interesting match-up. Magny came back from a long layoff and looked absolutely great in his last fight. It should be extremely close fight too, cause while technically Martin is probably ahead in the standup, Magny can but the pressure and volume on him, and he can always just force it into a more of a clinch affair, which I believe Magny will have advantage in.
Martin showed against Maia that he can keep it tight and survive in the grappling as well, but Magny might just elect to control the fight against the fence. This might go either way, expect a very tight match-up.
Tony Martin via SD.
Sean O'Malley vs. Eddie Wineland
O'Malley has always been flashy fighter but I was not entirely sold on him until his last performance. Now I am, and he should get past Wineland pretty easily. O'Malley is for real and has been improving with every performance in the octagon. Wineland is a tough veteran, but he has taken 3 KO losses already in his career and his recent wins have been against fading guys who are barely UFC level.
So I do not expect this to be a close fight. Sure, Eddie can use his experience and force the technical outside fighter O'Malley into a grinding matchup, but I just don't think he has enough chin to keep eating the damage he will face from the counters.
Sean O'Malley via 1st round KO.
Chase Hooper vs. Alex Caceres
Hooper is young but I hope to lord he fixes his striking, or rather has fixed it already, cause he absorbs so much damage per fight that that he will wash out of fighting by 25 if he keeps it going like that. He definitely has a way to win against Caceres but man if it isn't a big step-up in competition. Like I really worry Caceres can make it a massacre if he just fights smart, keeps it on the outside and stays patient. Of course it is Caceres so it is also just like him to just goof the whole fight off.
In a way it is similar to the Kron Gracie matchup that Caceres had, but Kron is physically stronger than Hooper and I would also say better in the standup. Plus you would hope Caceres has learned something from that.
Caceres is not heavy-handed guy so while I do think he will test Hooper's chin a lot, I do not expect him to one-shot him to oblivion - if KO happens, it will be due to accumulation of damage.
Alex Caceres via 3rd round TKO.
Ian Heinisch vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Heinisch should have this. Meerschaert has improved his striking and probably can keep it close, but he will accept losing rounds too easily and I don't see him managing to force the grappling against Heinisch. So it will come down to the striking and Heinisch is the better one in that regard.
Ian Heinisch via UD.
Cody Stamann vs. Brian Kelleher
Quickest turnaround we have seen in a while for Brian Kelleher. Kelleher is a crafty veteran and has showed that he can still take a shot, but Stamann is entering his prime and just overall should be the better fighter. Expect it to be very competitive, but Stamann should pull away in the end.
Stamann via UD.
Charles Byrd vs. Maki Pitolo
Byrd has taken back-to-back TKO losses and has to face Coconut Bombz now? Surely it will not end well, particularly if Pitolo learns from the mistakes he did in his last fight. He was the better fighter in that fight, just did not perform to his skill.
Maki Pitolo via 2nd round KO.
Jussier Formiga vs. Alex Perez
Perez has great skills and massive potential, but really has not faced the level of competition that Formiga has. Still, I would rate these two guys very evenly matched in terms of skill. Perez is approaching his prime, whereas Formiga probably is already hitting the point where the best performances have already been seen.
It definitely is not an easy fight to predict in that regard, but the fact Formiga has taken back-to-back losses seems to suggest he is on a decline. 35 is old in flyweight division.
Alex Perez via SD.
Alonzo Menifield vs. Devin Clark
I am big on this Menifield kid. The guy is 9-0 and no one has survived longer than 5.5 minutes with him. Eventually there will come someone who will be able to take him to deep waters, but I really don't think Devin Clark will be that guy. Menifield has incredible power, is very offensively potent, and Clark just... isn't very good. He is barely good enough to remain in the UFC, and not much better than the opposition Menifield dispatched already.
Lot of guys that Clark beat by decision are already out of UFC, and it might be that so is Clark soon.
Menifield via 1st round KO.
Evan Dunham vs. Herbert Burns
Dunham is a blast from the past, quite literally since the guy has not won a fight since 2016. That is a long time ago, and it has been almost 2 years since he last fought. There will be plenty of ring rust, and at 38 you have to really doubt if he is gonna have much durability left. After all, he has been KOd in his last two fights.
Herbert Burns is not the biggest power guy of course, so that might actually work for Dunham's favor, the more experienced fighter might be able to hang with the grappler on the ground and take the fight deep, and then who knows what will happen? I can't trust for the to happen though.
Herbert Burns via 2nd round submission.
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