UFC 251 Preview & Predictions
It's a top heavy card for the first Fight Island event, but prelims should nonetheless have some good action as well despite not having many big names. Lot of 50/50 fights on the card, but also some that look reasonably clear cut beforehand. As for main events, I still keep flip-flopping around, undecided on who will win.
I choose that wording cause I do think Masvidal will be the one more likely to hurt Usman. But even when Usman would take damage, he could control position and still end up taking the round. Usman is pretty close to a complete fighter - great wrestling, top control, strong as hell, excellent cardio, good even in stand-up. Technically he won't be fat behind Jorge even in stand-up, and he has enough power to hurt Jorge if he connects.
Still, Jorge has the advantage on the feet, but it just does not seem like he has the kind of footwork to stay away from getting clinched up. Jorge is good at staying out of trouble in the grappling, so I don't expect that Kamaru submits him or even does too much damage on the ground, but he does not seem like he would be too hard for elite wrestler like Kamaru to take down repeatedly.
So all in all, I think if these two fought for 20 rounds, I think Kamaru would win about 15, and Jorge 5, but Jorge would still be more likely to finish the fight. I do think if they start exchanging on the feet anything might happen, both of them have power. First round will dictate a lot, Jorge needs to hurt him early, and even if he manages that he has to somehow stay off the fences to win the fight. Kamaru being so durable is another added difficulty for Jorge to get the KO he needs.
I will make ultimate decision based on odds as always, but for now I am leaning on Kamaru to get a decision.
The odds are just about correct, so I will just take a punt on Jorge, I can't bear to be rooting for Kamaru. Jorge via 3rd round KO.
And although it was the perfect fight from Alex, you see no reason why he would not pull it off again. The question Max's team needs to answer is how does he deal with those leg kicks this time around. Alex's whole game was designed around kicking Max's leg.
Of course on top of that, Alex is just so fundamentally sound and excellently conditioned. The leg kicks and perfect countering stopped Max from being able to put his trademark pressure, so Alex never was even close to being drowned in the pace. The only flaw of the performance was that Alex's wrestling did not even look close to getting Max taken down, but that was never needed cause whether it was the leg kicks or just putting together punch combinations, Alex had the better of it through the whole fight.
So looks clear pick, then? Well we need to play what-ifs a little. What if Max just did not show up as his best self that day? What if that wasn't his best performance, what if he could do even better with Alex? I think that is reasonable assumption, but even then, he is still getting his lead leg chopped up and then out-landed as he tries to fight out of southpaw.
I don't expect this second fight to be mirror image of the first. Max has to know he has to do something different this time. There's basically two options - either he really goes for broke and forces himself on Alex's face, really trying to drown Alex into the pace he usually puts, or he completely changes his usual style, trying to fight really long to take advantage of his height and uses very right front foot, something like a Muay Thai style to try to stop the leg kick onslaught.
There is problems in both approaches. Recklessly going after it will likely get him knocked out early on, even though his chin is legendary. He might survive getting tagged repeatedly but either way it is likely that then just the same thing as with Poirier happens - he does not get Alex tired as much as he gets himself compromised from sponging up damage.
If he fights cautious, then it might become a boring fight, and particularly if he fight with a more Muay Thai style, he might get more susceptible to getting double-legged. Finally Max might fight in something like the style Ferreira employed in his last fight, closing the distance with light front leg, which would be combining the two approaches and trying to really take the fight to Alex.
Make no mistake Max might have gotten clearly picked apart in the first fight, but Alex was also damaged in that fight, so if best Max shows up it will be violent fight and Alex holding his belt will not be a foregone conclusion.
I lean on Alex with perhaps 60/40 percentages, but will decide based on odds again which one I pick.
I do think Alex should be favorite, but the odds are way too lopsided, market is clearly overrating the first fight here. Max is clear pick on these odds. Max via SD.
Main Event: Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal
I keep wanting to pick Jorge here, cause I see a surprisingly many not believing he even deserves the title shot. I do think he deserves it and he is one of the very elite fighters in the world, despite having a lot of losses in his record. Either way, against Usman he will be losing a lot of rounds.I choose that wording cause I do think Masvidal will be the one more likely to hurt Usman. But even when Usman would take damage, he could control position and still end up taking the round. Usman is pretty close to a complete fighter - great wrestling, top control, strong as hell, excellent cardio, good even in stand-up. Technically he won't be fat behind Jorge even in stand-up, and he has enough power to hurt Jorge if he connects.
Still, Jorge has the advantage on the feet, but it just does not seem like he has the kind of footwork to stay away from getting clinched up. Jorge is good at staying out of trouble in the grappling, so I don't expect that Kamaru submits him or even does too much damage on the ground, but he does not seem like he would be too hard for elite wrestler like Kamaru to take down repeatedly.
So all in all, I think if these two fought for 20 rounds, I think Kamaru would win about 15, and Jorge 5, but Jorge would still be more likely to finish the fight. I do think if they start exchanging on the feet anything might happen, both of them have power. First round will dictate a lot, Jorge needs to hurt him early, and even if he manages that he has to somehow stay off the fences to win the fight. Kamaru being so durable is another added difficulty for Jorge to get the KO he needs.
I will make ultimate decision based on odds as always, but for now I am leaning on Kamaru to get a decision.
The odds are just about correct, so I will just take a punt on Jorge, I can't bear to be rooting for Kamaru. Jorge via 3rd round KO.
Co-Main Event: Alex Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway
The thing about their first meeting was that Alex fought the perfect fight. He just made no mistakes, had the perfect strategy and executed it consistently through the five rounds. He thoroughly outstruck Max in a manner no one has done, even if Max has lost before.And although it was the perfect fight from Alex, you see no reason why he would not pull it off again. The question Max's team needs to answer is how does he deal with those leg kicks this time around. Alex's whole game was designed around kicking Max's leg.
Of course on top of that, Alex is just so fundamentally sound and excellently conditioned. The leg kicks and perfect countering stopped Max from being able to put his trademark pressure, so Alex never was even close to being drowned in the pace. The only flaw of the performance was that Alex's wrestling did not even look close to getting Max taken down, but that was never needed cause whether it was the leg kicks or just putting together punch combinations, Alex had the better of it through the whole fight.
So looks clear pick, then? Well we need to play what-ifs a little. What if Max just did not show up as his best self that day? What if that wasn't his best performance, what if he could do even better with Alex? I think that is reasonable assumption, but even then, he is still getting his lead leg chopped up and then out-landed as he tries to fight out of southpaw.
I don't expect this second fight to be mirror image of the first. Max has to know he has to do something different this time. There's basically two options - either he really goes for broke and forces himself on Alex's face, really trying to drown Alex into the pace he usually puts, or he completely changes his usual style, trying to fight really long to take advantage of his height and uses very right front foot, something like a Muay Thai style to try to stop the leg kick onslaught.
There is problems in both approaches. Recklessly going after it will likely get him knocked out early on, even though his chin is legendary. He might survive getting tagged repeatedly but either way it is likely that then just the same thing as with Poirier happens - he does not get Alex tired as much as he gets himself compromised from sponging up damage.
If he fights cautious, then it might become a boring fight, and particularly if he fight with a more Muay Thai style, he might get more susceptible to getting double-legged. Finally Max might fight in something like the style Ferreira employed in his last fight, closing the distance with light front leg, which would be combining the two approaches and trying to really take the fight to Alex.
Make no mistake Max might have gotten clearly picked apart in the first fight, but Alex was also damaged in that fight, so if best Max shows up it will be violent fight and Alex holding his belt will not be a foregone conclusion.
I lean on Alex with perhaps 60/40 percentages, but will decide based on odds again which one I pick.
I do think Alex should be favorite, but the odds are way too lopsided, market is clearly overrating the first fight here. Max is clear pick on these odds. Max via SD.
Third Title Fight: Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo
Bit of a controversial pairing for the vacant title, Aldo coming off of close decision loss to Moraes and Yan, while has been looking great, beat a guy in his 40s to get this title shot. But I digress, this is not the time nor place. Whether deserving or not, one of these guys will be the world champ. At least out of all the bantamweights I have in my current database, Yan is the highest rated.
It would be wrong to say Aldo has no chance, but out of all the main fights of the card, this one is the clearest in terms of likely outcomes. We have a young, powerful, fundamentally sound guy who realistically is still at least couple of years away from his prime fighting against a veteran who is past his prime but still dangerous, trying to make his final run for world title in a new division.
Both these guys fought last time around against opponents who allowed them to fight their own fight. As a result Yan looked great and got a finish in a dominant fashion, and as for Aldo, he did not exactly look great but he looked competitive against younger guy and did enough for many people to think he should have won.
Either way as much as Marlon is one of the elite fighters of the division, he is much more favorable matchup for Aldo than Yan is. Marlon is content to stay on the outside and does not want to push the pace, whereas Yan will nonstop be on your face trying to punch, clinch and elbow you - and he is powerful and durable.
Aldo is also powerful of course, and that probably is his only way to win this fight. He has to catch Yan with some clean counters and put him out, cause if he does not, I think Yan will do same as Max did to him, just walk him down until he fades and put the damage on him. This is likely to be a stand-up war which might end up with either getting KOd, but we saw Aldo getting wobbled couple of times against Yan so his durability is more likely to be the issue.
Petr Yan via 4th round KO.
Jessica Andrade vs. Rose Namajunas
Rose has not fought since that time Andrade slammed her on her head. Her mental her is always a question coming into this fights, but so far we haven't really seen her performance suffer from it. It's also been a while since we saw much of Andrade, her only title defence being such a short match.
Either way all we have is the first fight and in that Rose absolutely massacred Andrade... until Andrade slammed her. So those the two variables still in play in this match as well. Andrade's life changing power but technical inferiority and Rose's smooth style.
Honestly there is no reason to expect Andrade to look any better. She took a lot of damage in her last two fights, got KOd once and knocked down in the other before rallying. Perhaps her durability is bit starting to abandon her? Rose on the other hand has taken her time off so should not be suffering any ill effects of that last KO, is still only 28 and presuming she has been steadily training, should still be better than in their previous fight. So its about 80/20 with 80 being Rose picking Jessica completely apart and 20 being Andrade connecting with something weird hard again and KOing her.
Rose Namajunas via 3rd round KO.
Paige VanZant vs. Amanda Ribas
Well, Paige has been away for a while again, but based on her Ostovich performance she is still the same fighter she always was - scrappy and game, with decent striking, and solid grappling, but one that tends to lose positions and is too limited to really get to highest level. Or maybe I am underestimating her, in the end she is still young and might show up vastly improved.
Either way Paige was well on her way to a loss before she found the submission against Ostovich, and we know Ostovich is barely UFC level fighter herself, another girl who is more in the game for looks than skill alone.
Ribas on the other hand is legit and Paige is unlikely to find some hail mary submission against world class grappler like her. As for striking, it could be close, and Paige does have to keep it on the feet to have any chance in this fight... but I feel like Ribas might be better at that too. She fights a good, aggressive, pressuring style that should wear Paige out. I don't see this going full 3 rounds to be honest.
Amanda Ribas via 2nd round submission.
Volkan Oezdemir vs. Jiri Prochazka
How good is Jiri Prochazka actually? Well, we are gonna find out fast cause they are throwing the young newcomes right into the deep end by making him face Oezdemir. Prochazka comes with a big reputation as he has been knocking everyone out and knocking them out fast in Rizin, with incredible record of 23 KOs in 26 wins.
Then again, KOing aging has-beens in Japan just isn't so impressive, but it is obvious Jiri has some power. Problem is Volkan is top of the line in UFC and has only ever been KOd once, and even that was a TKO from world champion's ground-and-pound, not being dropped simply with power.
One might argue Volkan lost that Rakic fight, and they are probably right, but even in that he showed great durability against young, very powerful tall guy, similar in that sense as Prochazka. It was a competitive fight were Volkan stole a decision probably more with just forward pressure than deserving it, either way that same blueprint will be how he can find success against Prochazka too.
CB Dollaway already pieced up Prochazka's foot in their matchup and it was just about to start bothering when Prochazka got the KO. Volkan has the durability to really invest in that. Aside that, Volkan should seek to just clinch up a lot and use his excellent clinch striking to make the difference.
Either way it is once again a huge step-up in competition so Volkan should have this with experience alone.
Volkan Oezdemir via 3rd round TKO.
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos vs. Muslim Salikhov
At 36, this is pretty much the last call for Salikhov to make any kind of title run. After losing his UFC debut, he is on a 3 fight win streak and been looking very good. He is one of the better strikers of this welterweight division, and really needs a standout performance against Dos Santos here.
Of course, Elizeu is also a crafty striker himself and has been making a run near the top of the division himself, before he got derailed by Jingliang Li. Muslim should have the advantage on the feet, but it is a small advantage, and Dos Santos mixes up takedowns and grappling a bit better which might make this a closer affair in the standup. Of course it is the kicking game of these two that we would love to see, but I think the path of least resistance for Dos Santos would be to close the distance and make it into a grappling fight.
In striking, Salikhov has hurt pretty much everyone he has faced and that is Dos Santos' most likely fate as well if he indulges in a kickboxing bout.
So yeah, I would peg this as 70/30 on the feet, but if Dos Santos can even score one takedown it will become more of a 50/50. Guess I will see the odds and pick whichever has the bigger odds, it certainly is close enough fight for that. Maybe I will still pick Salikhov even if he is slight favorite, but if they make him a big favorite, Dos Santos is definitely worth a punt here.
Odds look just about right here, so slight punt on Salikhov getting it via UD.
Makwan Amirkhani vs. Danny Henry
Crossroads fight for both, both guys fought high-level guys in their last fights and both got finished. If they win this now, they might not be out of the UFC considering they are high-level talents for their division, but it might be too long way back to any kind of contention any more.
Henry seems the kind of opponent though that Amirkhani has been able to get by consistently during his UFC career, plus Amirkhani showed in his last fight that he has great durability, whereas Henry got really badly hurt and quickly finished by Ige. Perhaps should not draw too much of a conclusion based on just one fight.
Perhaps Henry is the bit better striker, but Amirkhani is more likely to be the one to get takedowns and grind out a decision, but grappling battles will still be even between these two and for Amirkhani the worry is that he fades again. He has to pace himself better. So yeah, I am leaning on Mr. Finland taking this, but not with any kind of confidence.
Amirkhani via UD.
Well, Paige has been away for a while again, but based on her Ostovich performance she is still the same fighter she always was - scrappy and game, with decent striking, and solid grappling, but one that tends to lose positions and is too limited to really get to highest level. Or maybe I am underestimating her, in the end she is still young and might show up vastly improved.
Either way Paige was well on her way to a loss before she found the submission against Ostovich, and we know Ostovich is barely UFC level fighter herself, another girl who is more in the game for looks than skill alone.
Ribas on the other hand is legit and Paige is unlikely to find some hail mary submission against world class grappler like her. As for striking, it could be close, and Paige does have to keep it on the feet to have any chance in this fight... but I feel like Ribas might be better at that too. She fights a good, aggressive, pressuring style that should wear Paige out. I don't see this going full 3 rounds to be honest.
Amanda Ribas via 2nd round submission.
Volkan Oezdemir vs. Jiri Prochazka
How good is Jiri Prochazka actually? Well, we are gonna find out fast cause they are throwing the young newcomes right into the deep end by making him face Oezdemir. Prochazka comes with a big reputation as he has been knocking everyone out and knocking them out fast in Rizin, with incredible record of 23 KOs in 26 wins.
Then again, KOing aging has-beens in Japan just isn't so impressive, but it is obvious Jiri has some power. Problem is Volkan is top of the line in UFC and has only ever been KOd once, and even that was a TKO from world champion's ground-and-pound, not being dropped simply with power.
One might argue Volkan lost that Rakic fight, and they are probably right, but even in that he showed great durability against young, very powerful tall guy, similar in that sense as Prochazka. It was a competitive fight were Volkan stole a decision probably more with just forward pressure than deserving it, either way that same blueprint will be how he can find success against Prochazka too.
CB Dollaway already pieced up Prochazka's foot in their matchup and it was just about to start bothering when Prochazka got the KO. Volkan has the durability to really invest in that. Aside that, Volkan should seek to just clinch up a lot and use his excellent clinch striking to make the difference.
Either way it is once again a huge step-up in competition so Volkan should have this with experience alone.
Volkan Oezdemir via 3rd round TKO.
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos vs. Muslim Salikhov
At 36, this is pretty much the last call for Salikhov to make any kind of title run. After losing his UFC debut, he is on a 3 fight win streak and been looking very good. He is one of the better strikers of this welterweight division, and really needs a standout performance against Dos Santos here.
Of course, Elizeu is also a crafty striker himself and has been making a run near the top of the division himself, before he got derailed by Jingliang Li. Muslim should have the advantage on the feet, but it is a small advantage, and Dos Santos mixes up takedowns and grappling a bit better which might make this a closer affair in the standup. Of course it is the kicking game of these two that we would love to see, but I think the path of least resistance for Dos Santos would be to close the distance and make it into a grappling fight.
In striking, Salikhov has hurt pretty much everyone he has faced and that is Dos Santos' most likely fate as well if he indulges in a kickboxing bout.
So yeah, I would peg this as 70/30 on the feet, but if Dos Santos can even score one takedown it will become more of a 50/50. Guess I will see the odds and pick whichever has the bigger odds, it certainly is close enough fight for that. Maybe I will still pick Salikhov even if he is slight favorite, but if they make him a big favorite, Dos Santos is definitely worth a punt here.
Odds look just about right here, so slight punt on Salikhov getting it via UD.
Makwan Amirkhani vs. Danny Henry
Crossroads fight for both, both guys fought high-level guys in their last fights and both got finished. If they win this now, they might not be out of the UFC considering they are high-level talents for their division, but it might be too long way back to any kind of contention any more.
Henry seems the kind of opponent though that Amirkhani has been able to get by consistently during his UFC career, plus Amirkhani showed in his last fight that he has great durability, whereas Henry got really badly hurt and quickly finished by Ige. Perhaps should not draw too much of a conclusion based on just one fight.
Perhaps Henry is the bit better striker, but Amirkhani is more likely to be the one to get takedowns and grind out a decision, but grappling battles will still be even between these two and for Amirkhani the worry is that he fades again. He has to pace himself better. So yeah, I am leaning on Mr. Finland taking this, but not with any kind of confidence.
Amirkhani via UD.
Leonardo Santos vs. Roman Bogatov
As much as father time is undefeated and it does not bode well for Santos to already be 40 years old, he honestly did not look at all his age in his last performance. Still has the speed, no reason to suggest his chin is gone considering he is undefeated since 2009, and he still has that world class grappling pedigree in his back pocket.
So he is tough out for the former M-1 fighter Bogatov who comes into this fight undefeated. I have very little to go on about him but he seems pretty much your standard Russian wrestler who takes you down and beats up, with functional but rudimentary stand-up. Does he want to take elite grappler down? If not, it becomes a striking battle and I see it being 50/50. I would say Bogatov is more likely to score a KO given the age of Santos, but with reach advantage that Santos enjoys he should be able to outpoint Bogatov.
All in all it's kind of a pick your poison situation for Bogatov. Either get picked on the outside but the taller man, or grapple with him and enter into the danger with world class grappler. Still, Bogatov could probably reasonably keep it close by clinching a lot and just score late takedowns to get ahead in points without having submission threat, so all in all you have to favor the younger guy here, even if it is a terrible stylistic matchup for him.
Santos is big favorite in the odds. I wanted to pick him but can't at these odds, seriously how do you have unbeaten, 27-year-old as underdog against 40-year-old? Even with the bad stylistic matchup, there is a blueprint which I laid out with which Bogatov can win this fight, so I am going for Bogatov via UD.
Marcin Tybura vs. Maxim Grishin
Tybura is pretty shot, but he did show he still has something in the tank against Spivak. He has to do pretty much the same thing here against Grishin. Grishin has solid striking and good footwork, so he will be on top in the standup, but Tybura can win this by stealing the rounds with takedowns. Still, I feel like in 2020 any somewhat competent heavyweight beats Tybura, and Grishin is exactly that. He has not lost since 2016 and even then it was against very good opposition (Ankalaev)
However he does need to get the job done fast considering the short notice of the fight. If this goes long Tybura will start to dominate.
Grishin via 1st round KO. As of writing this, my betting site has not updated the fight to reflect the change of opponent, so I am not making the bet yet. Will update this when I get to make the bet (if ever)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs. Raulian Paiva
Honestly beats me why they have flyweight division if they won't have DJ. I like watching flyweights fight, but how do you get invested in a fight between two unknown regionals basically? Anyway rant aside, maybe it is unfair to call Paiva a regional guy at this point, after all it is already his 4th fight in UFC.
He has not done too bad to be fair, being competitive in all of his fights and getting KO last time around. So he has nothing to prove, as far as I am concerned, he is legit UFC level guy.
Calling Zhumagulov a regional guy isn't fair either, cause he was the champion in Fight Night Global that has consistently churned out very high level guys for UFC. Zhumagulov had a crazy 5 round war with Bagautinov in his last fight, which unfortunately won't tell us too much about this fight since Paiva is unlikely to put on a relentless chain-wrestling display.
So I would say it is good match-making on UFC's part. I initially thought Paiva should comfortably have it, but perhaps Zhumagulov will actually go for high pressure clinch & takedown performance now that he is not faced against heavy wrestler himself to mitigate the height Paiva has on. Although in his last fight Zhumagulov was trying to avoid getting wrestled, here it looks like it would be his best path to victory. Regardless he seems like a well-rounded fighter and Paiva gets hit a lot, so with forward pressure, even striking and takedowns to emphasize the advantage, Zhumagulov can get the decision here.
Zhumagulov via UD.
Karol Rosa vs. Vanessa Melo
This is not a high level contest. However, Karol Rosa is fundamentally sound and well-conditioned fighter. Sounds basic but that's women's MMA for you... That should be enough to get the win against Vanessa Melo, who is the worst-rated fighter out of the 500 fighters I have assessed for these reviews. She got thoroughly outstruck and outclinched by a fighter from weight class below in her last fight, and missed weight this time which to me suggests she probably won't be crazily improved either.
Expect Rosa to circle and outpoint Melo through the whole fight.
Karol Rosa via UD.
Martin Day vs. Davey Grant
Day has been off for a while, last fighting in 2018, but he should be the clearly better fighter here. Both have decent striking on the outside, but Day is just far more polished as a taekwondo practitioner. He has the better footwork as well so he should be able to move and counter Grant. Grant also is the less durable of the two.
The only thing he has sort of going for him is that perhaps he is the better grappler here, and he is not hopelessly behind on the feet. Still, squeaking by Popov who is really at the bottom of the barrel in the UFC is not a good look. For him to beat Day here, Day would have to have bad case of ring rust or Grant simply has to have improved a lot since his last fight.
Martin Day via 2nd round KO.
As much as father time is undefeated and it does not bode well for Santos to already be 40 years old, he honestly did not look at all his age in his last performance. Still has the speed, no reason to suggest his chin is gone considering he is undefeated since 2009, and he still has that world class grappling pedigree in his back pocket.
So he is tough out for the former M-1 fighter Bogatov who comes into this fight undefeated. I have very little to go on about him but he seems pretty much your standard Russian wrestler who takes you down and beats up, with functional but rudimentary stand-up. Does he want to take elite grappler down? If not, it becomes a striking battle and I see it being 50/50. I would say Bogatov is more likely to score a KO given the age of Santos, but with reach advantage that Santos enjoys he should be able to outpoint Bogatov.
All in all it's kind of a pick your poison situation for Bogatov. Either get picked on the outside but the taller man, or grapple with him and enter into the danger with world class grappler. Still, Bogatov could probably reasonably keep it close by clinching a lot and just score late takedowns to get ahead in points without having submission threat, so all in all you have to favor the younger guy here, even if it is a terrible stylistic matchup for him.
Santos is big favorite in the odds. I wanted to pick him but can't at these odds, seriously how do you have unbeaten, 27-year-old as underdog against 40-year-old? Even with the bad stylistic matchup, there is a blueprint which I laid out with which Bogatov can win this fight, so I am going for Bogatov via UD.
Marcin Tybura vs. Maxim Grishin
Tybura is pretty shot, but he did show he still has something in the tank against Spivak. He has to do pretty much the same thing here against Grishin. Grishin has solid striking and good footwork, so he will be on top in the standup, but Tybura can win this by stealing the rounds with takedowns. Still, I feel like in 2020 any somewhat competent heavyweight beats Tybura, and Grishin is exactly that. He has not lost since 2016 and even then it was against very good opposition (Ankalaev)
However he does need to get the job done fast considering the short notice of the fight. If this goes long Tybura will start to dominate.
Grishin via 1st round KO. As of writing this, my betting site has not updated the fight to reflect the change of opponent, so I am not making the bet yet. Will update this when I get to make the bet (if ever)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs. Raulian Paiva
Honestly beats me why they have flyweight division if they won't have DJ. I like watching flyweights fight, but how do you get invested in a fight between two unknown regionals basically? Anyway rant aside, maybe it is unfair to call Paiva a regional guy at this point, after all it is already his 4th fight in UFC.
He has not done too bad to be fair, being competitive in all of his fights and getting KO last time around. So he has nothing to prove, as far as I am concerned, he is legit UFC level guy.
Calling Zhumagulov a regional guy isn't fair either, cause he was the champion in Fight Night Global that has consistently churned out very high level guys for UFC. Zhumagulov had a crazy 5 round war with Bagautinov in his last fight, which unfortunately won't tell us too much about this fight since Paiva is unlikely to put on a relentless chain-wrestling display.
So I would say it is good match-making on UFC's part. I initially thought Paiva should comfortably have it, but perhaps Zhumagulov will actually go for high pressure clinch & takedown performance now that he is not faced against heavy wrestler himself to mitigate the height Paiva has on. Although in his last fight Zhumagulov was trying to avoid getting wrestled, here it looks like it would be his best path to victory. Regardless he seems like a well-rounded fighter and Paiva gets hit a lot, so with forward pressure, even striking and takedowns to emphasize the advantage, Zhumagulov can get the decision here.
Zhumagulov via UD.
Karol Rosa vs. Vanessa Melo
This is not a high level contest. However, Karol Rosa is fundamentally sound and well-conditioned fighter. Sounds basic but that's women's MMA for you... That should be enough to get the win against Vanessa Melo, who is the worst-rated fighter out of the 500 fighters I have assessed for these reviews. She got thoroughly outstruck and outclinched by a fighter from weight class below in her last fight, and missed weight this time which to me suggests she probably won't be crazily improved either.
Expect Rosa to circle and outpoint Melo through the whole fight.
Karol Rosa via UD.
Martin Day vs. Davey Grant
Day has been off for a while, last fighting in 2018, but he should be the clearly better fighter here. Both have decent striking on the outside, but Day is just far more polished as a taekwondo practitioner. He has the better footwork as well so he should be able to move and counter Grant. Grant also is the less durable of the two.
The only thing he has sort of going for him is that perhaps he is the better grappler here, and he is not hopelessly behind on the feet. Still, squeaking by Popov who is really at the bottom of the barrel in the UFC is not a good look. For him to beat Day here, Day would have to have bad case of ring rust or Grant simply has to have improved a lot since his last fight.
Martin Day via 2nd round KO.
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