UFC Fight Night 173 Preview & Predictions

Last weekend we had a 15-fight event, whereas this weekend we have had already short card further shortened through cancellations down to 10 fights. I would like even 12 fights every week, but from time management perspective these shorter cards are better. Anyway this card is pretty thin in name value, but expect highlight KO in the main event.

Main Event: Derek Brunson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

Surely this won't be even close? I did go through the motions of reviewing their last fights, but my opinion on who wins is still clear, Edmund's boy will smash Brunson. You are putting a young, rising star with heavy KO power in there with a 36-year-old guy who has already been KOd 5 times in his career. Sure, Brunson managed to beat Heinisch last time around, but even then he got his bell rung in the first round.

I do hope Brunson manages to make it competitive though. I mean he is experienced guy with a well-rounded skillset, and if he can test Edmen it would be important for his growth as a fighter. It has all been perhaps a little too easy so far. 

You can't completely discount Brunson, he does have power in his hands so can KO Edmen, but odds should be very wide here for Edmen's favor.

Edmen Shahbazyan via 2nd round KO.

Co-Main Event: Joanne Calderwood vs. Jennifer Maia

Eh, well guess this is essentially for #1 contender, for the questionable honor of who is next in line to get beat up by Valentina. They both share a recent loss to Chookagian, but have been getting some decent wins at flyweight too. They are decision machines though, and considering they probably are evenly matched this is another match that is likely to go to a decision. So we just need to answer two questions - who is gonna win point-fighting kickboxing match, and who is gonna be more likely to dominate the clinch/top control. 

Calderwood definitely is the better kickboxer, but she has to do better job than against Andrea Lee in maintaining distance if she is gonna be win this fight. She can take a leaf out of Chookagian's playbook, staying light on her feet and sniping shots from the outside. As for Maia, she has to make this an ugly clinch fight or really rock Calderwood a couple of times.

Either way I am not impressed by their last performances, it will likely be a fight of very close margins. Calderwood should have the advantage on the feet but she is not that hard to take down, and Maia will gladly take those opportunities.

Joanne Calderwood via UD.

Vicente Luque vs. Randy Brown

Why is this not the co-main? Two high-level welterweights going at it, and whoever wins will be very high in the rankings after this. Luque beat Niko Price after a war last time around, whereas Brown got famously KOd by price, but has since then recovered by finishing couple of middling level welterweights.

Luque is the better fighter on the feet, and he is very good at keeping it there. Brown's range might pose him some problems, but Luque isn't exactly small man himself, only has 2.5 inch disadvantage there.

So I figure this will be competitive, but Luque will pull away through the superior technical striking he has. Of course, the might end up colliding together and going to the floor and Brown can land a big shot as always to win it, but I would have it at least 65/35 to favor of Luque.

Vicente Luque via UD. 

Lando Vannata vs. Bobby Green

Pretty close fight on paper, both like to fight hands low, use head movement and fast reflexes to counter. It seems to me Lando would be the more willing one to walk forward and put pressure, Green certainly has been kind of fighter who kind of drifts out of fights he could have won simply by not being very active. 

Lando is probably the better striker on the outside, boxing is pretty even, and Green is probably the better clinch fighter. But like I said, Green is not really the kind of guy to force the clinch and I feel Lando has the better footwork, so he will largely decide what range this is contested at. It might be fun exchange or the feet or a cautious affair where Lando snipes at Green from the outside. 

All in all I have it slightly in Lando's favor, but this should be close fight. Either way Green is not a guy you want to be backing in a close decision...

Lando Vannata via UD.

Trevin Giles vs. Kevin Holland

Look, it's not a great look when a former light heavyweight takes on a former lightweight with no camp and gets easily taken down and nearly submitted in the first round, then going on to barely scraping by with a split decision. You can make a reasonable argument Krause beat Giles in the last fight.

Oh well, at least he is fighting against another middleweight here, so he shouldn't struggle with pace and speed this time... right? Well not exactly. Holland a small middleweight who moves and throws extremely fast. I don't really think Giles is good enough to put on a wrestling display against Holland, so unless Giles connects something heavy on Holland's chin, he should have a bad time with a guy bouncing on the outside throwing fast combinations at him.

Kevin Holland via UD.

Frankie Saenz vs. Jonathan Martinez

I suppose Saenz can win this either by pursuing wrestling aggressively or landing a huge shot, but Martinez is durable, moves well and has never been finished so those aren't very high probability things to happen.

Saenz is up there in age and got very easily KOd last time around. That seems like it will be likely to happen this time around too, Martinez is not the biggest power puncher but is powerful enough and has some KOs in his record. 

It's all about range here, Saenz doesn't have a chance if he can't keep closing the distance, Martinez has good movement and reach over him so the most likely thing is that Saenz just gets picked apart and eventually dropped.

Martinez via 2nd round TKO.

Ed Herman vs. Gerald Meerschaert

My first instinct was that this will be easy as ABC for Meerschaert, but its another reason why I should not trust my first instincts. Meerschaert got finished quick after really not showing anything in his last fight. Herman is a very limited fighter, but he has decent wrestling defence and can crack hard... so where exactly is GM3 supposed to beat him?

I guess he could put a volume boxing performance on him or something like that, but Herman just might crack him all during that, and if its close in the striking who is not to say GM3 isn't gonna give away some easy takedowns to lose rounds?

I don't know it's two unreliable fighters going against each other, definitely not something where you can make a pick with any kind of confidence.

Ed Herman via UD.

Johnny Munoz Jr. vs. Joseph Nathan Maness

Eh, flip a coin? Very little tape on these guys (wont bother with some 2015 stuff), and studying records does not tell us so much cause neither guy has any great wins on their record, mostly been feasting on .500 regionals. Perhaps Maness has at least been fighting slightly the tougher competition, but as a result he already has a loss in his record.

Another thing speaking for Maness winning is the extremely late notice of Munoz coming in. Either way I would have picked Borg easily against Maness, but in a matchup like this, you have to feel Maness is the favorite.

Either way looks like the fight is not listed on my betting site. Spares me from making an uneducated pick. I will check back in 12 hours and update my pick if the odds are available later.

EDIT: So odds are pretty even, which suggest to me people rate Munoz highly, but for reasons I mentioned I will pick Maness via 1st round KO.

Jamall Emmers vs. Vince Cachero

Cachero is another late replacement, and he is a solid guy, but Emmers also showed some very good performance in his loss against Chikadze. Based on it being late notice and Emmers having showed himself to be UFC level guy, I lean on him.

Emmers via UD.

Chris Gutierrez vs. Cody Durden

I dunno. Gutierrez is good enough for UFC and had one of my favorite fights in his last outing, putting on a class about what happens to the opponent if they get relentlessly leg kicked without ever checking one kick. Durden is bit of an unknown quantity, looks like a really strong wrestler with good power, having finished 7 fights in a row since his last loss.

As much as I enjoy the style of Gutierrez, I kinda feel like Durden will have this. Wrestlers tend to dominate and Durden has some serious finishing threat. I dont know details of how late notice he took this fight, so there might be some caveat related to that, but even with short notice, you cannot discount someone with such good power.

Cody Durden via 2nd round TKO.