UFC on ESPN 13 Preview & Predictions
Multiple events in one week? Kinda like it but its brutal to get these previews done, had to do all nighter to get these done in time.
Main Event: Calvin Kattar vs. Dan Ige
This card might not be packed with a lot of name value, but this main event at least should be a good one, with two guys who prefer to strike going head to head.
Calvin showed in his fights against Zabit and Stephens that he is definitely top-10 fighter in the division, perhaps even top 5. Ige on the other hand showed in his split decision wins against Bektic and Barboza that he is probably top-10 fighter in the division, but definitely not top-5.
So yeah, I don't see Ige posing too much problems for Kattar. Frankly he was lucky to get the decision against Barboza after seemingly losing two rounds clearly, even that third round was not clearly his. They both are strong boxers and Ige can perhaps throw more volume and get a decision that way, but his problem is that he is the smaller, less powerful man and most importantly seems to be clearly less durable.
It's also a very quick turnaround for Ige after very damaging fight with Barboza, it might play a part in this fight. Either way Kattar's problem usually is eating too many leg kicks, and that is not really something Ige does a lot, so to me this is for once pretty clear pick.
Calvin Kattar via 2nd round TKO.
Co-Main Event: Tim Elliot vs. Ryan Benoit
This is a much harder fight to call than the main event. There was a time when Tim Elliot was one of the better flyweights around, but it is pretty safe to say he has faded since and is well past his prime at this point, hence finds himself on a three fight losing skid.
Still, Benoit is a good stylistic match-up for him. Benoit's strengths lie in his outside striking, but he got outpaced by a bantamweight in his last fight and was pretty easy prey for takedowns in that fight. He did not exactly show best durability either considering he got dropped a couple of times.
Elliot is unlikely to drop him, but for sure he will be on his face nonstop to not allow him to get his striking going. It will be largely clinch/grappling match and I think Elliot won't need to work as much for his takedowns as he had to against Royval, so him gassing out like in that fight is less likely to happen. Then again it is Abu Dhabi, so it is very hot, they will get slippery... that works against grappling.
Benoit has his chances to catch and KO Elliot countering while they still stand, but think it will be unlikely he gets a decision here.
Tim Elliot via UD.
Jimmie Rivera vs. Cody Stamann
Pretty close fight here. Rivera is pretty elite, survived 3 rounds against both Sterling and Yan, but ultimately fell short. He still has only lost to fighters at the very top of the division. Same could be said about Stamann though, he is at least very close to elite of bantamweights himself.
Rivera's durability has started to become an issue in his recent fights, but Stamann is not the kind of power puncher that Yan is. Definitely feel like he should have the edge here on paper as the guy with much more of the high level experience. It will likely be a very close fight though, both of these guys are good strikers who also mix up wrestling into it very well.
Just feel like if Rivera managed to outstrike Yan at times, he can definitely do that to Stamann. Can Stamann steal close rounds with takedowns? He definitely can, but don't think he can do that every round. Like I said, expect a very close fight unless Rivera's chin cracks.
Jimmie Rivera via UD.
Molly McCann vs. Taila Santos
Santos got outworked and outclinched by Borella, so you would think McCann can do exactly the same thing to her. McCann is technically and physically outmatched by most opponents, but her smart aggression mixed with good clinch and takedowns is enough to get her past non-elite competition.
McCann via UD.
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Mounir Lazzez
Lazzez looked great in his last fight... but he was fighting a guy much shorter than himself with a 10-9 regional record, so yeah. I would hate to be facing Alhassan with just those credentials. Aside for Omari Akhmedov, who is basic but fundamentally sound, Alhassan has starched absolutely everyone he has faced. Crazy power combined with good judo base, he will make easy work of this glorified regional guy.
Alhassan via 1st round KO.
John Phillips vs. Khamzat Chimaev
My first instinct was that well surely Phillips will teach this 6-0 can crusher a lesson about UFC, but then I looked a bit more into it - Chimaev is not just power guy blasting through poor fighters, he looks to be very competent grappling based fighter who also has some power.
Phillips also happens to be my worst rated middleweight. Sure, he did beat Amedovski last time around cause they both were willing to just slug it out, and that plays to Phillips' advantages exactly, whereas I expect Chimaev to not play that game - he will rather clinch up Phillips and take him down. Also even if they do slug it out, as powerful as Phillips is I expect Chimaev to have a better chin to take it.
All in all, I expect Chimaev to stay unbeaten.
Chimaev via UD.
Ricardo Ramos vs. Lerone Murphy
Murphy is the naturally bigger man, and showed slick striking, good heart and decent stamina against Tughugov, even if it just got him a draw. His problem is that he doesn't know much takedown defence. Ramos will be a problem for lot of people even up a division the way he effortlessly slides in and out of range and for his strong clinch game.
It's through his grappling and submissions I expect him to win this fight.
Ramos via 2nd round submission.
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Andreas Michailidis
Takedowns seem like will be the key here, Bukauskas is decent on the feet but doesn't have much takedown defence, whereas Michailidis likes to strike but also mixes it up with grappling. Although neither has seen decisions often, I think it will be sufficiently evenly matched that there won't be a finish.
Michailidis via UD.
Jared Gordon vs. Chris Fishgold
Gordon is 1-3 in his last 4, and all 3 of those losses have been KOs, which cast doubts on his chin. Is it gone already? To be fair to him, he has lost to some very high level opposition during that run, including Charles Oliveira and Diego Ferreira, both at the top of the division.
Fishgold is not much of a KO threat, and is the naturally smaller man, so if Gordon still gets finished here with strikes, he really is done in the UFC. Fishgold ought to be competitive but just step behind in every aspect.
Gordon via UD.
Liana Jojua vs. Diana Belbita
Based on their debut showings, neither of these girls is really UFC level. Still, Belbita at least showed some sharp striking and decent volume against McCann, if she can replicate that she can probably beat Jojua here. Belbita's problem was that she really had no takedown defence, but Jojua did not seem like much of a takedown threat.
That being said, Jojua did fight a division up so perhaps against a smaller girl she can impose her grappling a little better. With reservations on that I lean on Belbita, simply cause she is so much better striker she should be able to keep Jojua off her.
Belbita via UD.
Jack Shore vs. Aaron Phillips
Shore is perfect 12-0, has sound stand-up, relentless pressure, good takedowns and top control. Phillips looks decent in the standup but is kinda rough around the edges, particularly his takedown defence doesn't seem great and he is very hittable. All of that is not gonna bode well for him against Shore, this should be pretty dominant for Shore.
Jack Shore via 3rd round TKO.
Pretty close fight here. Rivera is pretty elite, survived 3 rounds against both Sterling and Yan, but ultimately fell short. He still has only lost to fighters at the very top of the division. Same could be said about Stamann though, he is at least very close to elite of bantamweights himself.
Rivera's durability has started to become an issue in his recent fights, but Stamann is not the kind of power puncher that Yan is. Definitely feel like he should have the edge here on paper as the guy with much more of the high level experience. It will likely be a very close fight though, both of these guys are good strikers who also mix up wrestling into it very well.
Just feel like if Rivera managed to outstrike Yan at times, he can definitely do that to Stamann. Can Stamann steal close rounds with takedowns? He definitely can, but don't think he can do that every round. Like I said, expect a very close fight unless Rivera's chin cracks.
Jimmie Rivera via UD.
Molly McCann vs. Taila Santos
Santos got outworked and outclinched by Borella, so you would think McCann can do exactly the same thing to her. McCann is technically and physically outmatched by most opponents, but her smart aggression mixed with good clinch and takedowns is enough to get her past non-elite competition.
McCann via UD.
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Mounir Lazzez
Lazzez looked great in his last fight... but he was fighting a guy much shorter than himself with a 10-9 regional record, so yeah. I would hate to be facing Alhassan with just those credentials. Aside for Omari Akhmedov, who is basic but fundamentally sound, Alhassan has starched absolutely everyone he has faced. Crazy power combined with good judo base, he will make easy work of this glorified regional guy.
Alhassan via 1st round KO.
John Phillips vs. Khamzat Chimaev
My first instinct was that well surely Phillips will teach this 6-0 can crusher a lesson about UFC, but then I looked a bit more into it - Chimaev is not just power guy blasting through poor fighters, he looks to be very competent grappling based fighter who also has some power.
Phillips also happens to be my worst rated middleweight. Sure, he did beat Amedovski last time around cause they both were willing to just slug it out, and that plays to Phillips' advantages exactly, whereas I expect Chimaev to not play that game - he will rather clinch up Phillips and take him down. Also even if they do slug it out, as powerful as Phillips is I expect Chimaev to have a better chin to take it.
All in all, I expect Chimaev to stay unbeaten.
Chimaev via UD.
Ricardo Ramos vs. Lerone Murphy
Murphy is the naturally bigger man, and showed slick striking, good heart and decent stamina against Tughugov, even if it just got him a draw. His problem is that he doesn't know much takedown defence. Ramos will be a problem for lot of people even up a division the way he effortlessly slides in and out of range and for his strong clinch game.
It's through his grappling and submissions I expect him to win this fight.
Ramos via 2nd round submission.
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Andreas Michailidis
Takedowns seem like will be the key here, Bukauskas is decent on the feet but doesn't have much takedown defence, whereas Michailidis likes to strike but also mixes it up with grappling. Although neither has seen decisions often, I think it will be sufficiently evenly matched that there won't be a finish.
Michailidis via UD.
Jared Gordon vs. Chris Fishgold
Gordon is 1-3 in his last 4, and all 3 of those losses have been KOs, which cast doubts on his chin. Is it gone already? To be fair to him, he has lost to some very high level opposition during that run, including Charles Oliveira and Diego Ferreira, both at the top of the division.
Fishgold is not much of a KO threat, and is the naturally smaller man, so if Gordon still gets finished here with strikes, he really is done in the UFC. Fishgold ought to be competitive but just step behind in every aspect.
Gordon via UD.
Liana Jojua vs. Diana Belbita
Based on their debut showings, neither of these girls is really UFC level. Still, Belbita at least showed some sharp striking and decent volume against McCann, if she can replicate that she can probably beat Jojua here. Belbita's problem was that she really had no takedown defence, but Jojua did not seem like much of a takedown threat.
That being said, Jojua did fight a division up so perhaps against a smaller girl she can impose her grappling a little better. With reservations on that I lean on Belbita, simply cause she is so much better striker she should be able to keep Jojua off her.
Belbita via UD.
Jack Shore vs. Aaron Phillips
Shore is perfect 12-0, has sound stand-up, relentless pressure, good takedowns and top control. Phillips looks decent in the standup but is kinda rough around the edges, particularly his takedown defence doesn't seem great and he is very hittable. All of that is not gonna bode well for him against Shore, this should be pretty dominant for Shore.
Jack Shore via 3rd round TKO.
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