UFC on ESPN 15 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Pedro Munhoz vs. Frankie Edgar 

Pedro Munhoz probably by all means did not lose that fight against Aljo last time around. It was extremely high-level contest, razor thin decision, massive volume, technical striking, relentless pressure... what I am getting at is Munhoz is elite of the division at the top of his game. Aljo got the nod in scorecards, but it's not like Munhoz did not hurt him at times in that fight.

Edgar on the other hand has had a long and storied career of never getting finished, except that he has gotten KOd twice in his last 4 four fights. Particularly the manner Korean Zombie KOd him worries me. I know KZ is a powerful puncher, but pretty much anything he landed solidly had Frankie hurt. Basically it seems like Edgar's good chin is completely gone. Munhoz is not the most powerful guy in the division but he still is powerful and has very good boxing.

So Munhoz will land, and he will land often, and there is no confidence in me that at 38 Frankie can keep taking it for 15 minutes. Even if he does, then what? He is not going to win rounds by striking anyway against Munhoz, he is just too accurate and able to put a pace. Basically he has to wrestle and clinch for his life. We know Frankie has the stamina to do that, but like I said, Munhoz is elite of the division, so it seems it is unlikely he will fall prey to that strategy.

I mean honestly Munhoz has a hell of a resume, only losses against Assuncao, Dodson, Rivera and Sterling, all of those close decisions. He has never gotten dominated and I don't think this time it will happen either. I honestly expect very wide odds in this one.

Pedro Munhoz via 1st round KO.

Co-Main Event: Ovince St. Preux vs. Alonzo Menifield 

OSP is so tough fighter for me to predict. At his best he is brilliant, at his worst he is abysmal, and sometimes he manages to be both things in the same fight. I went against him in his last two fights and was wrong once and even in latter time he made it into a split decision.

Menifield is pretty classic one round fighter, can completely pulverize you in first round but gasses hard in a longer fight.

So basically we have uncertain qualities on both sides, impossible fight to predict with any reliability.

Thing is, on paper Ovince should be a big step-up from facing Clark, and Menifield already lost to Clark... But on the other hand OSP is already 38 and definitely cannot put on that high output fight that Clark managed. So Alonzo should have much more chances to crack that big shot that finishes the fight.

Even if he does though, OSP just fought at heavyweight and showed he can take a heavy shot. Still, if OSP cannot impose a lot of grappling on Menifield and put a pace on him, I don't see him gassing out so badly. OSP himself tends to slow in long fights, so all-in all I see two relatively likely outcomes where Menifield wins - either he starches OSP in the early going, or slows down a bit but not too much to still outstrike him for two rounds to get a decision.

Of course, OSP can just grab hold of him, take him down and sub him. He won't have too many chances to do that before he gasses either, but it's a possibility. Still, if nothing else Menifield showed decent takedown defence in his last fight. So after some analysis, all signs point to Menifield having this.

Alonzo Menifield via 1st round TKO. 

Mike Rodriguez vs. Marcin Prachnio

Rodriguez has ridiculous physical traits, really all the makings for a great fighter, except he really does not have much of a chin, getting knocked out in his last fight with the first shot that landed. Well, maybe to say he does not have a chin is bit too much sweeping conclusion off of one fight, but I am under the impression that he has always been a bit chinny. As for Prachnio, he has been almost two years out after taking back-to-back KO losses against Ankalaev and Alvey.

Prachnio did not show much in his last fight either, and a guy who has been KOd by Alvey just does not seem that good. Two chinny, unreliable but somewhat powerfuls fighters going at it, flip a coin cause I have no idea who is gonna win this. I mean if I have to give edge to someone it would be to Rodriguez - he does have huge reach advantage and he has been active, whereas Prachio for sure will have some ring rust.

Mike Rodriguez via UD.

Mariya Agapova vs. Shana Dobson

I don't know why they made this fight. Dobson is the worst fighter by distance out of all the fighters I have reviewed since starting this, whereas Agapova is a very highly-regarded prospect. This won't even be competitive.

Agapova via 1st round submission.

Dwight Grant vs. Daniel Rodriguez

I'm not gonna overthink this one. You could argue that Grant has fought better competition, but he is kinda low output guy, something you can't blame Rodriguez in being. Rodriguez has shown pretty decent chin, so I think he can take whatever hard shot Grant gives him. 

So yeah, Rodriguez, UD via volume. Well shit, I accidentally placed the opposite bet. Guess I just have to run with it now then. Oh well the odds are actually decent.

Mizoki Inoue vs. Amanda Lemos

Hard to say, Inoue has pretty solid resume, has never been finished, but also has not fought in a while. Lemos on the other hand has finished almost everyone she fought fast, but the one time she was extended she got gassed. I dunno, my brains say Inoue, but my gut says Lemos, so...

Lemos via 1st round KO.

Austin Hubbard vs. Joe Solecki

Decent fight, interesting one for sure. Hubbard has faced a string of tough grapplers and... done alright, I would say. Still, you kinda feel like he is too easy to take down. Solecki has fought really easy opposition so far, but seems to have good takedowns and relentless GNP. I rate Hubbard as very good fighter and stern test for Solecki, but still believe Solecki can still withstand this test.

Joe Solecki via UD

Jordan Wright vs. Isaac Villanueva

So this is interesting, Wright who is natural middleweight is fighting against Villanueva who debuted in heavyweight in UFC. They meet in the middle at light heavyweight, with Villanueva having cut significant amount of weight and Wright being 5 pounds under the limit probably without any cut.

Wright is the more skilled fighter, but size matters and while I am biggest believer that technique can beat size, you just feel like Wright gets easily cornered and can't take a shot from heavyweight, I mean he already wilted once against a middleweight and Villanueva will surely hit harder.

Isaac Villanueva via 1st round KO.

Matt Semelsberger vs. Carlton Minus

Short, unreliable review here since these are essentially regionals. Minus has more experience, has fought better opponents and has more variety of wins. Semelsberger has already couple of losses despite only being 8 fights deep into his career. Both guys are pretty young though so might show up well-improved.

Minus via UD.

Timur Valiev vs. Trevin Jones

Same disclaimer as above, both of these guys have a lot of experience coming into their UFC debuts. Valiev has overall the more impressive record and has fought better names, but it's not like Jones has been beating complete nobodies either. Should be a good fight.

Valiev via UD.