UFC 252 Preview & Predictions

I have traditionally done poorly in bigger events, guess cause lower level MMA is easier to predict, but let's see how this goes.

Main Event: Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier

I wrote my initial prediction when the odds for the fight initially were released, saying that Stipe should be favorite and that's who I would be picking if the odds stay the same. However, rewatching both of the fights have made me sort of change my mind.

Of course, the facts that the initial prediction was based on are still true - Stipe is the fighter still in his prime, whereas everything about Daniel's demeanor seems to acknowledge that he is past his prime. Stipe also managed to figure out DC during the most recent fight.

Still, that does not change the fact that ultimately Daniel was pretty dominant up until getting finished. He was clearly faster, much sharper boxer and his pace seemed to be suffocating Stipe. Perhaps that pace was a tad bit too much though considering Daniel was visibly slowing down in the 4th even before Stipe started nailing his body.

So yeah, Stipe adjusted by starting to blast DC's body with punches, but the reason I don't think that is such a major factor after all is that cause it was just one shot over and over again. DC surely has figured many ways to counter that particular shot.

Ironically it seemed that Stipe was actually stronger in clinch during the fights, of course DC was the only one to really get takedown and top control. 

Either way this is going to be extremely close fight that can end at any time via KO and it probably would be a close decision if it goes all the way there. Both of these guys took non-stop damage in the first two fights, so I expect it to be just the same this time around. Of course because of his age DC is more likely to become affected by the damage, but either way both of these guys have pretty legendary chins. 

I will leave my ultimate pick to after weigh-in (writing this on Thursday), cause I think weights will tell us something more about how in shape the guys are. Certainly if one or the other is vastly different from their previous fight weight that will suggest training has not gone exactly like it's supposed to and it will have an effect on a fight like this that will undoubtedly be contested at incredibly high pace.

So weigh-in results are in, they are pretty much what is expected, except Stipe is 3 pounds heavier than last time around, which nudges me another little bit towards DC. Let's see the odds and decide who we pick. 

The odds are tough cause its exactly 50/50. Sigh, let's go for it. DC via 3rd round KO.

Co-Main Event: Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera

Note they changed the bout order, so this fight is no longer the co-main, but regardless I can't be bothered to rearrange my previews.

Malley is for real, but this is nonetheless a very big step-up in competition, as O'Malley's complete skillset has not yet been tested much. Vera should be capable of testing him as he is elite level grappler and has held his own against some elite strikers of the division as well. 

If it stays standing up, O'Malley will definitely outland in the 1st, probably in the 2nd too, but by third Vera will take over cause the guy can push the pace. If he can impose any grappling whatsoever on O'Malley, it becomes a 50/50 fight, hell probably lean towards him 40/60.

The problem for Vera is that O'Malley is the more likely to get the KO, though of course Vera can KO him as well and get the sub. I would say this fight ends in a finish minority of the time though, mostly these two slug it out to the decision cause both are tough to finish. 

Bottom line, O'Malley has been beating only peripherally UFC level fighters so far, Vera is a real top contender and huge obstacle for him to clear, and I think if it does not happen fast, it will be tough for him. Considering all the tough KO artists that Vera went to decision with (Song, Lineker), it seems like O'Malley needs something extraordinary here. If anyone can pull it off it's him, though.

Marlon Vera via 3rd round submission.

Junior Dos Santos vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

It honestly seems like JDS wilts every time he eats a hard shot these days. I don't know if it is his chin being gone or just mental unwillingness to take damage, either way it's not something that will bode well for the rest of his career. Rozenstruik is basically Ngannou lite and we know Ngannou melted JDS in little over a minute.

Out of Rozenstruik's last 6 fights, 4 ended in less than 30 seconds (though of course one in a loss). I would not be surprised if this is a quick one as well.

Still you have to give JDS pretty big puncher's chance here cause it's not like Jairzinho has never been knocked out, Ngannou did just that last time around, and JDS is a technical, evasive boxer so he can definitely find a hard shot early with Jairzinho moving in. Of course if Jairzinho lands hard first, it will be all over, whereas Jairzinho might take whatever JDS dishes out.

I would want nothing more than JDS recapturing his past form and becoming a title challenger again, but I really don't think its very likely. Jairzinho via 1st round KO. 

Herbert Burns vs. Daniel Pineda

Burns is 2-0 in the UFC, but the wins don't tell us that much about his level yet cause he has beaten the headcase that is Landwehr and completely shot, past his prime Dunham. Lucky for him this opponent is similar level to the previous two, what I have frequently termed here as "peripherally UFC-level". He already fought in UFC back in 2012, and has fought in lot of the other middling level organizations like Bellator, LFA and PFL.

So he certainly brings a lot more experience into the table and interestingly enough, it's a submission specialist vs. submission specialist match-up. So... expect a shitty kickboxing fight? Well both of them have decent enough striking so you would not call it shitty.

Still, Pineda is up there in age and has really come up short usually against elite grapplers, so I really have to think that Burns is too much for him to turn around even with his advantage in experience. 

Herbert Burns via 1st round submission.

John Dodson vs. Merab Dvalishvili

Nathaniel Wood was more than content to just strike with Dodson in last match, despite his grappling chops, but Merab will for sure seek to close the distance and just wrestle Dodson. Dodson has excellent footwork, very fast boxing and good power, and Merab isn't the hardest guy to hit.

That being said, all Merab needs to do is get his hands on Dodson, after that he will be clinching and taking Dodson down probably for all of rest of the round. So Merab will get rounds, but he will also come at Dodson and be very vulnerable to punches. So honestly it's very likely Dodson has Merab badly hurt at least in one of the first two rounds, so even if he does not get the KO, he should be able to steal the round. 

I don't know, this will be either very close decision or Dodson KOs Merab. So all in all, I lean towards Dodson, but Merab is better at the key positions (clinch/takedowns).

John Dodson via 1st round KO.

Jim Miller vs. Vinc Pichel

Miller has been great for me in terms of underdog pick cashing, but it's tricky fight for him. Pichel is pretty solid grappler himself and has power, but is also a bit of an unknown quantity since he lacks a lot of high profile fights in his career and has been fighting rarely. Not to mention he isn't exactly young either.

This could be a fight where Miller's chin gets tested again and I am not at all sure if it will withstand to the test. Still it's a close fight both on the feet and on the ground - I see Pichel having better of the striking and Miller of the grappling, but not sure if the gaps will be enough for a finish unless, like I said, Miller's chin just isn't there anymore. 

Miller might be 36 and has a ton of UFC fights behind him, but he has only been KOd twice so it does not exactly inspire me to back Pichel here. Should be a pretty close one, in other words, perhaps Miller is the one that is more likely to win rounds by getting top position in grappling etc.

Jim Miller via SD.

Felice Herrig vs. Virna Jandiroba

Jandiroba is a good grappler, but her striking is very rudimentary and I don't really see her taking Herrig down unless the Herrig that shows up is something completely different than she used to be. Herrig was one of the top fighters in the division. She obviously fell a little bit short of title contention in the end and at 35 is unlikely she will ever be more than a gatekeeper, but she should be able to keep this standing and outstrike Jandiroba pretty comfortably. 

Herrig also has never been finished despite fighting top level fighters for a while, so she should have this one. Surprised to see her as a big underdog here, perhaps there is something I don't know but this definitely is worth a punt. 

Felice Herrig via UD.

TJ Brown vs. Danny Chavez

Honestly TJ Brown gave a great account of himself against Griffin... but he lost in the end cause he did not give enough respect for the submission threat of Griffin. As for Chavez, we don't know much about him except that he is pretty heavy handed guy, having racked up three KOs in a row.

Honestly I would not look at that too much, it is much harder to get KOs in UFC level and although Brown might be somewhat hittable and even chinny, it seems here that he should be able to close the distance and top control his way to victory. Cannot of course declare it with any confidence considering how little we know of Chavez, but he does not seem to be the kind of grappling threat Griffin is.

In other words, I do expect Brown to pick up a decision here most of the time. Brown via UD.

Livinha Souza vs. Ashley Yoder

I gotta be honest, this does seem a little bit strange match-up. Souza looked absolutely awful in her last fight, and Yoder is much more physically gifted fighter than Van Buren, and I would dare to say perhaps even more skilled. So how does it make sense to match someone who just got dominated with an even better fighter?

I dunno, can't draw too sweeping conclusions off of a one fight, maybe Souza just did not have everything right that night. 

Either way, although Yoder isn't very good either, she is already quite deep in her UFC career and has fought some semi-solid competition like Markos in her last fight. With such physical advantage, you would think she would win this outside striking, but actually she uses her range poorly so in a pure kickboxing bout, Souza perhaps would have a chance. But any time Yoder would feel uncomfortable, I think she could just clinch or take down Souza.

Frankly it's hard to imagine any way for Souza to win except squeaking by in a tight decision after low-volume striking match.

Yoder via UD.

Chris Daukaus vs. Parker Porter

Two legit regional fat guys. Love it. As for who wins, haven't got the slightest clue. Porter actually fought Jon Jones back in 2008 and got finished very fast, not relevant to this fight in any way but fun tidbit and at least gives a clue this is not a very high level contest.

It is actually very tough to try to call a winner here since anyone relevant who either of these fought beat them, rest of their careers are crushing cans largely. 

Still for what little tape we have, neither has any glaring faults. I am gonna pick Porter cause he has fought at a higher level longer, seems to have the better rounded skillset and has not really lost since he started fighting again in 2018 (aside having one DQ). 

Parker Porter via 2nd round submission.

Kai Kamaka III vs. Tony Kelley

Another glorified regional match-up. At least Kelley went to a split decision with Aguilar who is a peripherally UFC level fighter. That split decision loss is his only loss among smashing cans. Kamaka has been something of a decision machine, unusual to find someone with only 1 finish in their record making it to UFC in men's divisions. 

There was some decent tape available for Kamaka from his last fight. Seems pretty well-rounded and competent, aggressive, typical Hawaiian type but coming from strong wrestling background. Pushes forwards, throws punches, slips and covers up well so isn't afraid to take one to give one, and smartly goes for takedowns and clinch when needed. 

Also the whole Aguilar fight from Kelley is available. Might be an old fight, but given it is against relevant competition and indeed the only hard fight we have, it gives us some good info. Actually Kelley looked very good in that fight, just fading towards the championship rounds. That makes me lean on Kelley picking this up. Don't get me wrong though - Kamaka might not have beaten tough competition, but he looks fundamentally sound so even with harder competition he might do well.

With some reservations, Kelley via UD.