UFC Fight Night 173 Post-Fight Analysis

So we had only 8 fights all event after some cancellations, and then of the remaining fights one ended in a draw and rest were littered with groin shots. Honestly it wasn't a good event and my pick results did not make it any better, but at least I had a lesson that I was supposed to have already learned reingrained.

Main Card

I wrestled with the result of the main event internally for a long time before eventually accepting that I had simply been wrong. I had overemphasized an aspect that actually happens kind of rarely (KO) while disregarding another important factor of the matchup, which was that it was once again significant step-up in competition for Edmen.

I simply got so caught up in the fact that Brunson gets always rocked and that Edmen had scored a few KOs that I did not see anything else any more. Dunno if more careful analysis would have had me change my pick anyway, but certainly some people called it right and considering the odds, Brunson obviously would have been great bet.

Oh well. In the co-main event things seemed pretty tight until JoJo decided to score a takedown and she got promptly submitted in following. Vicente Luque on the other hand was one of those guys who did not let me down, thoroughly dominating Randy Brown to get the finish.

Lando Vannata and Bobby Green had a competitive fight with both cracking each other, but ultimately Green started to get the better of exchanges and ran away with it. 

Prelims

Frankie Saenz took much worse beating than I envisioned from Jonathan Martinez, eating multiple headkicks that dropped him before he got eventually finished. Nathan Maness and Johnny Munoz has a poor fight that Maness won despite being largely controlled in the clinch. Munoz was content to just hold him and not scoring any damage, so definitely think the decision went correct there.

Jamall Emmers put on a show fighting against the much smaller Vince Cachero, who stepped in at last minute and despite taking a bad beating, kept walking forward and going for it. Tough guy, gotta respect it. Then there was the draw with Chris Gutierrez and Cody Durden. Durden took back control early in round 1 and rode out the round there. Valid 10-8? Eh, kinda borderline cause his shots were just little ones, but still it was very one sided round, Gutierrez did not really try to escape the position.

The same lack of urgency continued in the following two rounds, which Gutierrez clearly won, but being content to just picking off a shot here and there rather than really overwhelming the tired Durden or trying to finish him. Honestly he deserved to lose the win with that kind of lack of urgency.

My picks

I got 4 out 7 right after the draw pick did not count. By itself that wouldn't be too bad, but since I was mostly on favorites again, it would have not been enough for a winning night even if I bet smaller on Edmen (but betting small on Brunson would have definitely got me to winning side). It's these small things that make big changes for how an event goes. 

Obviously Edmen was the most dumb bet of the day, no contest about that, regardless of bet sizing. Vicente Luque was the best pick and my only regret is that I did not go much bigger on him, he had clear advantage there. All in all I took a beating for about three bets, which is about what I am losing since the restart. Honestly, very small loss for over 100 fight stretch, but I have made some clearly poor picks in recent times. Hell, just switching Jorge to Kamaru and Edmen to Brunson would change me to about 3 bets up so you see I can't claim it has just been bad luck lately. I simply have been making mistakes.

In the long term my record still looks great with 246 winning bets out of 401, correct pick rate of 61,35 %. Win rate alone does not mean anything though, it's the fact that I am still 30,7 average bets up that shows I am at least not completely clueless. ROI has dropped to 7 % which is still great, considering 10 % is considered pro level and I am not betting smartly just on good picks, I am betting on every single fight regardless of whether I think I have the edge or not. 

So all things considered, I have lot of reasons to be happy, I just need to put it together a bit better going forward and not forget the lessons that I already learned. I have a MMA Betting guide that I wrote a draft for coming up and one of the chapters was "It's hard to KO anyone", yet I still forgot that key guideline here in this event. As long as I follow what I already know, I will do better.

Either way I don't have to dwell on this too much, for next weekend we go again with an 11-fight card and then it's again the big one, UFC 252.

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