UFC Fight Night 174 Post-Fight Analysis

 The event this time around was full of tight, good fights and some great highlight finishes. Can't really complain at that department, even though in terms of picks I did only so-so again.

Main Card

It was always gonna go one of two ways in the main event, either Alexey Oleynik slices through Lewis like hot knife through butter on the ground, or Oleynik gets KO'd. Well it kinda went both ways, as Oleynik was dominant in the first round, getting lot of top control and having Lewis in tight submission spots. 

The second round started standing again and Lewis quickly got the KO most people were expecting in spectacular fashion. 

In the co-main, Chris Weidman scraped by Omari Akhmedov after a tense, back-and-forth fight. They both had won a round a piece going into third and looked quite worn out, but Weidman worked hard for the takedown, got it and then held top control for the round to get the decision. Weidman does not look like he has any business at the top of the division any more, but if he insists on fighting, I hope they feed him to some grapplers instead of big punchers.

I had my doubts on Yana Kunitskaya, but she turned out to be one of the more dominant fighters on the card. Smart fighting, took the fight where she had big advantage and did not veer off from the gameplan. Stoliarenko is gonna struggle at this level.

Beneil Dariush is evolving into a wild brawler that gets KOs from everywhere. Did not really expect that, but he rung Holtzman's bell multiple times before ending the night with a spinning elbow. Tremendous performance, needs a step-up in competition now.

Prelims

Staropoli was one of my big picks for the night, as I expected him to be able to outpoint Means and even have a decent chance of KO'ing the dirty bird. Means showed he still has enough to keep going and fought smart, utilizing plenty of clinch and actually being the one to rock Staropoli as well.

Kevin Holland had a fun scrap with Joaquin Buckley that ended with Holland stending Buckley's mouthpiece flying. That one went exactly as called, Holland's range was a problem for Buckley, though to his credit he did swing a lot of heavy shots too and was connecting in particular to the body.

Nasrat Haqparast put on a striking clinic against Alex Munoz, but as Munoz struggled to really test his chin, I am still reserved about Haqparast. Hope they keep building the young prospect up more patiently now, no need to throw him in with likes of Dober again any time soon.

Andrew Sanchez surprised me, especially after being so thoroughly dominated in his last outing by Vettori, to come out and so emphatically KO a much younger guy. What can I say, I underrated him. 

Gavin Tucker was hurt in the first round by Justin Jaynes, but Jaynes' 1st round finish streak came to an end as Tucker survived and dominated rest of the fight before ultimately getting the submission. Very good performance from Tucker. 

Youssef Zalal was as dominant as the one-sided odds suggested, picking up a clear decision win over Peter Barnett. Barnett survived a spinning back kick that landed flush and send him wobbling, but really did not look like he would have a good time at this level.

The first fight of the night was a fun, competitive scrap between Irwin Rivera and Ali AlQaisi. Split decision reflected the fact that it was close, but I think the victory went to the right fighter as Rivera's hand was raised. 

My picks

I got 7 out of 12 right, which is not terrible, over half right once again, but with so many favorites having been picked again, it really wasn't good enough to get on top. Under normal conditions I would have taken 3 bets of loss, but thanks to having a free bet promo for the main event, I only went down one bet.

Either way I always try to be objective and not results oriented, not staring too much about win or loss but rather could I have called the fights differently beforehand. Definitely there was one clearly stupid pick - Stoliarenko. She is great arm bar fighter, but it was clear she was getting dominated everywhere else and at those odds I really should not have taken a shot on her. 4 to 1, maybe, but she was too small of an underdog to be bet on there.

Lot of the other losses were close fights and could have gone either way, like the main event is good example on that, both guys had moments in their own specialities and could have won it. 

So I guess I get a C for my picks this time around. Not the worst, but it's not like there is massive improvements to be made, more like little tweaks. It's all about finding balance between things like "how shot is his chin vs. how much more experience he has".

My best pick... well it's actually hard to name any best pick since my big bets failed and the ones that won were either huge favorites or did not win that convincingly. I mean I guess Weidman winning was my best pick cause many called against him, but he barely made it. Other than that maybe Zalal or Holland, cause the fights went like I expected, but both were massive favorites so there was not much return there nor difficulty about calling those fights right.

There is the big card next weekend, UFC 252, and I have been doing poorly generally in the bigger name cards, so it is time to buck that trend.