UFC Fight Night 174 Preview & Predictions

 So it's Saturday and I am only starting to write these previews... Gonna be an all-day project so let's get to it.

Main Event: Derrick Lewis vs. Alexey Oleinik

I know it's the main event and all and I know my usual method is to watch one fight each fighter... but knowing I still have another 11 fights to preview after this, and knowing the fights I should watch are Lewis v Latifi and Oleinik v Werdum... I'm gonna pass. Some of the worst fights of recent times and I would say sufficiently recent for me to have good mental image of them.

Anyway it's the kind of fight where whoever wins, absolutely crushes the other person. Either Lewis vaporizes Oleinik with a hard shot, or Oleinik dominates Lewis via grappling. Considering even Latifi held down Lewis easily, I think Oleinik will have this as long as he gets hold of Lewis. Big if cause one shot can end with Lewis and Oleinik up in age is at best chinny. 

Not one that you can pick with any certainty, but you gotta play the percentages here and take Oleinik via 1st round submission.

Co-Main Event: Omari Akhmedov vs. Chris Weidman

I said when this fight was announced that it is a winnable match-up for Weidman, and I still feel that way. Actually I am gonna go further than that - this is a match-up that Weidman should comfortably dominate, otherwise he might as well retire cause he does not have anything to give to the sport any more.

That's not to disrespect Akhmedov, he is solid, middle of the road wrestling grinder with some decent power  in his hands - indeed enough that I would worry about it a little bit considering Weidman's gone chin - but by all means Weidman's skills should be on a different level here be it striking or wrestling. It's not so easy though considering Weidman is 36 with a lot of miles on him, particularly for him having lost every fight he has lost via KO. On the other hand that bodes well for him against Akhmedov, as Weidman has then won every decision he has even been in and decision seems the likely outcome here.

I mean look at the line of fighters who KOd Weidman. Prime Rockhold, Jacare, Mousasi, Romero, Reyes... That's a murderer's row right there. Getting KO'd by all of those is no shame. If Akhmedov joins that group, Weidman has truly fallen far from what he was. 

Even if Akhmedov isn't that far behind in terms of skill, he tends to slow down a lot if the fight goes long, so he really does need to KO Weidman to win this, you feel. Again not a pick that you can do with any confidence, but you gotta play the percentages and pick Weidman via UD. (Unless Akhmedov is huge underdog, then he might be worth a speculative punt).

Chris Weidman via UD.

Darren Stewart vs. Maki Pitolo

Stewart went to Cage Warriors briefly this March in between his UFC stints... and got dominated from bell-to-bell in a grinding wrestle fight. That won't tell much about this fight though since Coconut Bombz is more than willing to just stand and trade, which should favor Stewart's style. 

It's hilarious how oblivious Rogan & co. was in the commentary of the last fight as Pitolo rung Byrd's bell multiple times prior to the TKO and they didn't notice it. That aside, Pitolo won his last fight but he had a rough outing there as well, being largely dominated in wrestling in the 1st.

So it's a pretty close fight. Think I lean towards Pitolo if it's straight up striking, but if Stewart can mix it up, he can definitely win it.

Coconut Bombz via SD.

Julija Stoliarenko vs. Yana Kunitskaya

Yana is the rangier fighter with huge experience advantage and what should be better striking... but she has pretty woeful takedown defence and Stoliarenko is absolutely lethal with those armbars. 

I mean that kind of stuff should be kind of low percentage on this level, but I just can't trust Yana here. Exactly the kind of fight where Yana will be winning... until she just loses. But hey, I would still take Yana here if she has decent odds, its not exactly a clear cut fight. 

Stoliarenko via 1st round Armbar

Beneil Dariush vs. Scott Holtzman

As much as this feels like Dariush getting a step down in opposition, it still isn't exactly easy fight to call. Holtzman isn't easy to take down so it will be tough for Dariush to impose his grappling on him, and as for striking, they are pretty even. 

Dariush beat Klose in a wild fight last time around after dominating the first round, but won one round essentially spending the whole gas tank. He has to make sure that won't happen again here. As much as this seems like an even fight on paper, I do lean on Dariush simply for the fact that Holtzman is 36, isn't the biggest KO threat and Dariush should be in his prime.

Beneil Dariush via SD.

Tim Means vs. Laureano Staropoli

Staropoli fought against Salikhov about 10 months ago, lost, but was really competitive, took his best shots and made it to the final bell still pressing the action. Such a highly-regarded prospect will have surely improved from his performance since, whereas Means is... well, fading as a fighter. That said, he is not so far gone that I expect Staropoli to KO him for sure.

However even if it is more a range striking match, I still think I lean on Staropoli winning it, even if it takes a decision. Obviously Means is much more likely to get finished, so only one way to go with this pick.

Laureano Staropoli via 2nd round TKO.

Kevin Holland vs. Joaquin Buckley

Well I went the good ol' WHO DA FOOK IS THAT GUY on Buckley but based on his record and highlights, he should be a pretty legit fighter and interesting match-up for Holland. Holland did look tremendous in his last fight too as well, so this one is really up in the air for me. 

I mean I have to lean on Holland anyway but I do it with far less confidence than before researching Buckley. Holland is still damn fast and has fought tough competition in UFC already. He is also the naturally bigger man though obviously Holland is lanky and tall whereas Buckley is short and thick, but as they both are predominantly strikers the range and movement Holland will have will prove to be a problem in this style of matchup.

Kevin Holland via UD.

Nasrat Haqparast vs. Alex Munoz

Haqparast gets a big drop in competition after being badly finished by Dober. Despite being only 24, Haqparast is kind of chinny and I am worried for his career longevity. Munoz represents much lower level of challenge though. That's not to say he is an easy out anyway, the guy is 6-0, just another solid wrestle-boxer out of Team Alpha Male. This being his UFC debut though you would not expect him to perform to his full skill level.

Also he never really is the biggest KO threat. Still, it's hard to pick Haqparast with any confidence here. That KO was only 7 months ago, after all. Still, this is a guy who beat Diakiese, so you would expect Haqparast soundly outstrike Munoz. If Munoz can turn it into wrestling match, it might be closer. I mean if it is clinch heavy fight, which is very possible especially in the small cage, it immediately turns towards being in Munoz' favor. 

Pure striking battle Haqparast should be able to win, but there is still that small chance Munoz cracks him with something hard and knocks Haqparast out again. So all in all, I have this maybe 60/40 for Haqparast, let's look at the odds and see what we will do.

I dunno, small stake for Haqparast via UD.

Andrew Sanchez vs. Wellington Turman

Honestly, no clear idea on how this goes. Both guys are kind of rudimentary strikers with grappleheavy approach, but neither seems really offensively good enough in grappling to dominate another grappling specialist. I kinda lean on Turman being better at getting takedowns and holding positions, whereas Sanchez might be the bigger submission threat.

Anyway Turman is the younger guy so more likely to show up significantly improved and Sanchez was strangely pedestrian in his willingness to take a beating last time around against Vettori. Sure, Vettori is much tougher opponent, but it is still not a good look. Sanchez will have the experience advantage working for him, but make no mistake it's a close fight on paper.

I will follow my gut and go with Turman via UD.

Justin Jaynes vs. Gavin Tucker

After his last loss in 2017, Jaynes has now put together five 1st round finish streak, including his debut in UFC when he demolished Frank Camacho in under a minute. Tucker ought to prove a little tougher test, but I don't have any clear idea who will win this as they are very similar fighters, strong wrestlers with decent striking. I think Tucker's takedowns and top control looked real good, but his last opponent is not a good measure of it. Still as it is all I have for now, I do kinda give him the edge. 

Gavin Tucker via UD.

Peter Barnett vs. Youssef Zalal

I rate Zalal very highly, whereas Barnett looked to me like he actually lost that contender series fight that was his last fight. Either way, Barnett is kinda average and Zalal already beat Griffin who is solid UFC level fighter. That being said it was very gassed Griffin that he beat so it does not tell us too much.

Either way Zalal should be way too technical striker for Barnett. Barnett might steal a round with grappling and of course there is always the chance of big shot connecting, but Zalal should be pretty clear favorite here.

Zalal via UD.

Irwin Rivera vs. Ali AlQaisi

Obviously not a lot of info to go by here. Ali AlQaisi is essentially a regional fighter, has not fought anyone of note but has a decent record. Rivera similarly came in as a somewhat successful regional fighter and had a tough debut up a weight class against much taller Chikadze up a weight class. He got thoroughly dominated and did not get to show much of his skills, but to be fair looked at least tough and kept pressuring forward despite all the damage.

So he looks like he could be a tough fight for AlQaisi, but at the same time that war was not so long ago and he took a lot of damage, who is to say he is not still affected by it? At the same time he should look better against a smaller opponent with a full camp. I don't know, coin-flip time again.

Irwin Rivera via UD.