UFC Fight Night 175 Preview & Predictions

 I'm on the worst run of my MMA prediction career, but what would I be if I quit when going gets tough? It's more interesting card this weekend on paper than last week anyway.

Main Event: Anthony Smith vs. Aleksandar Rakic

My first instinct is that Rakic is clearly the better fighter of the two, but he did fight to a close decision against Oezdemir whom Smith finished, so this one needs obviously a little deeper analysis than that.

Smith's last fight was hard to watch and you gotta wonder if that did some lasting damage. Either way, it's not like he got purely outskilled, more like set himself into a pace that he could not keep up, whereas Glover remained calm, composed and measured himself to take over after Smith gassed. 

As for Rakic, you could very validly argue he beat Oezdemir last time around. Either way it was very close fight and to me it is evident that his combination of range, speed and power will be a problem for anyone in light heavyweight division. I think Rakic is overall the better rangefighter of the two, but as we saw against Oezdemir, he just allows people to leg kick him, and Smith is a decent leg kicker. That might figure to be a big part of this fight.

Either way I think Smith needs to put the pressure on Rakic and try to box him up as much as possible, but it won't be easy given Rakic's ranginess. If it stays are range, Rakic will definitely have an advantage. I think Smith would have the beating in a grappling match, but Rakic has not really been tested much on the ground in UFC so far, testament to his good balance. 

It should be a close one, but think it would take reasonably lopsided odds for me to pick against Rakic here, especially considering the last fight of the two.

Rakic via 2nd round TKO.

Co-Main Event: Robbie Lawler vs. Neil Magny

It's kinda funny that everyone seems to think it it's an afterthought that Magny wins this. Neither looked that great in their last fight, but Lawler was fighting probably the second best fighter in the division with an absolutely suffocating style. Magny managed to win the same way he always wins, just tiring his opponent out after couple of very close rounds. 

Lawler might be 38 and definitely past his prime, but it's not like Magny is going to KO Lawler. He never really sits down on anything so he is not a major KO threat unless you get tired, and I feel like Lawler is not gonna lose the cardio game in a 3 round fight. 

But yeah, Lawler is the long odds pick here, his last win was squeaking by Cerrone 3 years ago and is likely to get outvolumed and clinched up by Magny. Then again, any real top level fighter has finished Magny, so it is not unfathomable to think Lawler might be able to do that too. 

I dunno, I will decide this on the odds, stupid lopsided odds would have me pick Lawler, but aside that I have to be realist. Even though Lawler is one of my all times faves, Magny will probably just suffocate him similarly to way Covington did it.

Magny via UD.

Alexa Grasso vs. Ji Yeon Kim

Grasso is a solid, fast boxer who has been rounding out her skillset whereas Kim is a very cerebral striker, perhaps even too cerebral as it took her getting angry at the referee to really start to get after it in the previous fight.

Either way Grasso does sometimes some dumb stuff in there, like not pursuing Esparza when she got her hurt, so her fight IQ is not great, but aside that she should be much the faster and more refined striker here. Kim is a pretty good clincher though and stays calm no matter what, so if the striking battle goes sideways perhaps she can grab hold of Grasso and do some dirty boxing against the fence. 

Kim also has a reach advantage which would help her there. Either way although she really is not a grappler, fighting Grasso in a grappling style is the path of least resistance, cause I can see her getting hurt in a purely striking match. That is why you have to have Grasso here as the favorite, but she is definitely beatable if Kim attacks her weaknesses. The problem is that Kim just is not highest level fighter herself. 

Kim via SD.

Ricardo Lamas vs. Bill Algeo

Bully Lamas is one of those "chin is starting go" guys. Been KOd twice in last four fights and already 38 years old. Never heard of this Algae guy but you gotta wonder if any solid connection from a pro fighter will take Lamas out. 

Kattar of course is not just any pro fighter. To be fair to Lamas, he did defensively quite well in that fight, did not take too many flush shots, but the ones he did take had him hurt, which does not bode well for him. Technically he of course still is all there, but physically not so much. 

Bill Algeo has a decent regional record, probably one of those peripherally UFC level fighters all in all. However he is a very favorable matchup for Lamas, not being the biggest puncher. Only 3 KOs in his record so if I am Lamas I am not so worried about getting my chin cracked this time. Feel like Lamas has the beating here on the feet and Algeo does not have good enough offensive wrestling to make it into a wrestling match consistency, so gotta lean on Lamas here. Still that chin is not most reliable though, so you gotta make the pick with some reservations.

Lamas via UD.

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba

We saw this episode already. The problem here is, in the little time the previous fight went on, Ankalaev already showed he is the better fighter and the odds now are more reflective of that... almost to a point Cutelaba might be the play here.

Someone argued Ankalaev's wins in the UFC aren't all that. Sure enough, he has not fought anyone truly elite yet, but the guys he has fought, he has dominated pretty thoroughly. His only blemish is the strange last second tap against Craig in a fight he controlled for 14 minutes. 

So yeah, as much as the odds try to tempt me, it's hard to pick Cutelaba here. In the end though, it's two huge guys, both with lot of power, and one strike can change everything. So stranger things have definitely happened. Cutelaba has a good punchers chance here.

The previous fight was early stoppage, but either way even when faking getting hurt, Cutelaba was not able to catch Ankalaev with anything. Also people might say Ankalaev wins aren't all that, but neither are Cutelaba's - anyone truly elite he has come up against he has lost to. 

Magomed Ankalaev via UD. 

Maki Pitolo vs. Impa Kasanganay

When you look at Kasanganay you think to yourself, damn, what a powerful-looking guy, but then are surprised to find out he is yet to score a KO in his career. Maki Pitolo on the other hand is all about those COCONUT BOMBZ. Pitolo has had a little bit rocky start to his UFC career, but I like he remains active and willing to scrap. 

Kasanganay seems pretty well-rounded, technically sound guy with good conditioning but not a lot of experience. For Pitolo this is a significant drop in competition after looking initially to do well against Stewart. 

I dunno, gotta say I am not feeling it strong either way here. Figure Kasanganay will have dominance in clinch and wrestling, but it's not so clear that Pitolo would not be able to find a way to win. Definitely expecting Pitolo to do better here than in his previous fight. It looks like Pitolo could catch Kasanganay with one of those knees as Kasanganay likes dropping his head low. 

Maki Pitolo via 2nd round TKO.

Zak Cummings vs. Alessio Di Chirico

Cummings last fought almost a year ago, fighting into a tight decision loss against Omari Akhmedov. He is getting up there in age, but remains a tough scrapper who has never been KOd.

Similarly Di Chirico has only been finished only once in his career and is reasonably well-rounded fighter with good power. I just don't see him powershotting Cummings out of there, and Di Chirico's volume and wrestling leaves a lot to be desired.

So I think Cummings will just walk him down, grab clinches and takedowns enough to win at least two rounds. Also I think it is more likely Cummings hurts Di Chirico than vice versa. Should be another close fight though.

Zak Cummings via UD.

Alex Caceres vs. Austin Springer

Caceres dominated Hooper last time around, but still has his usual faults. He has good technical skills but is all too willing to fight flashy and less effective just for fun rather than keeping it fundamental and dominating. As for Springer, he is your typical tough wrestler, limited on the feet but tough to finish.

I would think Springer has this if he had a full camp, but he is a late replacement here so I think he can't keep up a sustained wrestling attack. Caceres is tough to get hold of and even tougher to hold down, but with full camp Springer probably would get at least two rounds via top control, but now I see him perhaps scoring couple of short takedowns, gassing and getting outpointed by Caceres.

Alex Caceres via UD.

Christian Aguilera vs. Sean Brady

Brady remains undefeated and with best tattoo in the game and some solid UFC opposition already behind him, it's tough to see how anyone could beat him. Aguilera on the other hand is a newcomer to the UFC, having knocked out another regional in Anthony Ivy in his UFC debut a month ago.

Aguilera has some good hands, gotta give him that. Brady needs to make this a clinch fight ASAP, otherwise he will be in danger of becoming the 12th knockout of Aguilera's career. As heavy as Aguilera's hands are, it's hard to pick him against a guy who has never been finished. Most likely this will be similar to Brady's last fight, with him suffering some early adversity in terms of getting outstruck, but eventually starting to get more and more wrestling going on and finding the win in the latter two rounds. 

Brady is a decision machine, but at the present odds I gotta go for the underdog. Aguilera via 1st round KO.

Emily Whitmire vs. Polyana Viana

Low level women's fight. Well we have BJJ world champ here, but she has not been doing well so far, being 0-3 in her last three in the UFC. Either way, unless she gets caught with something funky again, she should be taking down Whitmire repeatedly here and winning rounds. Whitmire is the better striker but just not great at takedown defence. Viana also has big experience advantage here.

Polyana Viana via UD.

Mallory Martin vs. Hannah Cifers

Another low-level women's fight. Cifers has been very active, this being her 4th fight already in 2020, but she is yet to find a win this year. 

To be fair, Cifers has fought a line of tough opponents, particularly Dern and Hill were always gonna be tough ones to beat even for a good fighter, let alone for a very limited one like Cifers. This time though she is fighting a much lower level opposition. 

Still, Martin is decent on the feet and will probably want to wrestle this to the ground... so all in all I don't see this being good one for Cifers either.

Mallory Martin via UD.