UFC 253 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa

I gotta say I don't have clear idea on who wins here but let's try to figure it out by starting with a pop quiz - when force and finesse meet in MMA, who usually wins? And I say usually, cause nothing is 100 % in MMA... well all things being equal, most of the time finesse wins. This is the ultimate Force vs. Finesse match-up. Thing is, if you keep adding more and more force, eventually you hit a point where all the finesse in the world won't help you. 

Paulo Costa is the ultimate power guy. His skills are... I would say good, but not on the same level as lot of the other top fighters, certainly not on Adesanya's level. However he hits hard, can take a shot and for such a big guy has pretty incredible cardio. To put it short, he can deal an incredible amount of damage in the time it takes for him to empty his gas tank. The fact that Yoel Romero was still standing at the end of 3 rounds is testament to his chin. If Costa can impose that same amount of damage on Izzy, he will surely get a KO here.

Of course he won't though, cause defensively Izzy is much better than Romero. His range and footwork will make it possible for him to pop off shots before Costa even gets close enough. Fact is however that no-one is perfect and for sure Costa will land some damage, and as the pressure starts to wear on Izzy he will start to even hit him with combinations.

We have an example in recent memory of Costa fighting against rangy, skillful striker - the poor man's Israel Adesanya, Uriah Hall. In that fight Costa's porous defense was exposed, but in the end it did not matter, cause Costa does not care how much you hit him as he knows he is throwing nuclear bombs at you.

He is not some terminator though. Both Hall and Romero had him hurt, and Izzy needs to hurt him too in the early going as well to relieve some of the forward pressure. 

Costa also has the opportunity to mix in some takedowns. He is not a wrestler per se, and I don't really expect him to get a takedown against Izzy, but he is still more of a mixed martial artist and mixing some takedown attempts in there could open up more of the powershots for him. 

Either way this is a fight that isn't gonna get any clearer no matter how much I analyze it. Very close match-up, I do think most of the time Izzy counters his way to a close victory through adversity, but some of the time Costa KOs him as well. Izzy is great defensively, but still has been caught with some shots in most of his high level fights. Israel being in such a skinny shape though makes me think that he has put in a tough camp and will be in best condition of his life. 

So I would say 60/40 for Izzy. I would pick him at even money or as a slight favorite.

With these odds, I have to go with Costa starching him, but as a fan of skill I still hope Izzy wins.

Paulo Costa via 2nd round KO.

Co-Main Event: Dominick Reyes vs. Jan Blachowicz

I like Blachowicz, he comes across as a really pleasant dude in the embedded clips... but I just don't see him getting past Reyes here, Reyes is just such an athlete.

Memes aside, Reyes just went 5 closely fought rounds with the light heavyweight GOAT, whereas Blachowicz got here by beating aged Jacare via split decision. Okay okay, the Anderson KO was good but considering Anderson tends to get KOd, it's not that good by itself. The lineup of guys Blachowicz beat just isn't all that impressive.

Of course, for Reyes you could argue that his loss to Jones was best performance of his career and his resume aside that isn't all that great either. Still, at least he has never been finished and has only one loss in his record, whereas Blachowicz has 8 losses and has been KOd twice. 

So yeah, Blachowicz is solid, and overall more experienced guy, but I don't see him KOing Dom, and I don't see him having volume on Reyes in a decision, so either way he is more likely to lose. In the end it's two big guys slugging it out so anything might happen. It's still interesting to note that both guys have same amount of KOs despite Reyes only being 13 fights deep and Jan 34, so it's clear who has the power advantage here.

Dominick Reyes via 2nd round KO.

Kai Kara-France vs. Brandon Royval

UFC's stance on flyweight division just confuses the hell out of me. They have hardly any fighters, they let the best guy of the division go to another promotion... So it's like they are about to scrap the division, but then they do something like this and put two fairly unheralded flyweights way up into the main card.

Of course, with flyweight being so thin it doesn't take that many wins in UFC to find yourself a top contender, and both of these fighters are coming off of a win, so as far the zombie division that UFC flyweight is, this is a pretty high stakes bout. 

Kara-France got that same style as Shane Young, keep the pressure, good balance, throw shots consistently through the fight. It's good way to win decisions, and at times he scores KOs as well through the volume despite not being the biggest power puncher.

Tim Elliot is such an unusual fighter that is hard to use that fight as a gauge for how good Royval is. Elliott obviously gassed in that fight, but Royval at least showed some good offensive instincts. So I believe he will have some success in this fight against Kara-France, but ultimately the forward pressure of Kara-France will start to show and Royval will lose a close decision. I would say he has a grappling advantage, but it won't be as easy to initiate grappling with Kara-France as it was with Elliott.

Gotta go with the more proven commodity here, Kara-France via UD.

Ketlen Vieira vs. Sijara Eubanks

Man Sijara is a nightmare fighter for me to predict cause I keep rating her high, and she keeps underperforming, so I downgrade my opinion of her and of course then she performs well. She got good physical talents, strong, boxes well, and seems to have fixed her cardio now too.

Ketlen Vieira is a tough opponent for her to face, for she was unbeaten for 10 fights before Aldana stopped her in the first in last fight. She is kinda technically rudimentary, but has good power and walks you down relentlessly, the kind of style that could still gas out Eubanks. She likes to walk you down, throw powershots, fall into clinch or take you down.

So Sijara will have to have her footwork on point, but that Avila fight seems to suggest that she can manage the chaos very well, for Avila was something of a similar fighter. What makes me ultimately tilt to picking Sijara here is the fact that Vieira got put out cold in her last fight. That could affect her chin permanently (one KO is unlikely to have that effect, but it is still possible), but even more likely it might affect her confidence to fight the aggressive style that she needs to win.

Sijara Eubanks via UD.

Hakeem Dawodu vs. Zubaira Tukhugov

Before even watching any previous fights, I can see this two guys are listed pretty far in terms of overall skill, but I do suspect I have overrated Dawodu when making the assessments and underrated Tukhugov, so they probably will come closer by the time I finish updating them. Overall skills aside, both have good skills and ways to win this fight.

Tukhugov is outgunned on the feet here, but should have the advantage in grappling. However, it seems like Tukhugov's advantage in grappling is bit smaller than what Dawodu has in the striking. Zubaira has improved his power recently as evidenced by the Aguilar KO, but I doubt he can crack Dawodu's chin. Dawodu puts a very high output kickboxing out there, has a strong clinch and is not easy to take down, although Arce did manage it once but even then got reversed.

All in all I would say that whatever Dawodu loses in the grappling realm he makes up simply being strong. I do think Tukhugov probably gets some top control time in this match, but enough to win two rounds? I am not convinced of that. Guess most likely outcome is close decision, followed by Dawodu KO, then Zubaira by submission. All in all I have this about 65/35 for Dawodu.

Dawodu via UD.

Brad Riddell vs. Alex Da Silva

Riddell came to UFC being hyped up as a future champ by some but... It has not exactly been convincing. I mean yeah, he has won his fights, and I would not say he has had bad performances, but it has not either been the kind of stuff that makes you think this guy will be a champ soon. Solid contender, sure, but not a champ. Mullarkey was supposed to be much worse but was landing a lot against him, and Mustafaev showed how much he can still struggle in grappling and clinch. 

Still, Riddell is a world champ level kickboxer, obviously an elite striker, but he is not transitioned to MMA as smoothly as say, Adesanya. He is still improving obviously, though.

He is in this fight facing an interesting stylistic match-up in Alex "Leko" da Silva who is more experienced as an MMA fighter, with 23 fights already in his record. Leko has finished all his wins except one and has never been KOd, which bodes well for him in a striking battle against a kickboxing world champ.

It's a classic striker vs. grappler battle, obviously Riddell is better striker than Leko is a grappler, but I do think either one can win this if they can impose their game plan. Leko isn't a chain wrestler or anything like that so I expect him to start the fight feeling it out, but if things get too hot expect him to look for opportunistic takedowns and clinging to those positions to save his life.

It could be one of those funky decisions cause I do think da Silva can get some grappling going on here as long as he doesn't get immediately KOd. I do think he ends up getting hurt a couple of times on the feet, but might also spend a good time having the ground control as well. Ground control tends to more often than not to win rounds so... I think I will go for a bit of a surprise here. Of course I might end up looking silly cause if Da Silva doesn't get any grappling going it won't even be close, and he will get finished before the full 15 minutes if that's the case.

Alex Da Silva via SD.

Diego Sanchez vs. Jake Matthews

Surely this won't even be competitive? Sanchez has been gone for a while now but somehow keeps finding wins in strange circumstances. He got thoroughly dominated by Pereira in a fight where he showcased the weirdest style of his career. Cause let's face it, he still has the tools to beat someone like Pereira, but he wasn't definitely using it.

Of course the elephant in the room is the "coach" that Sanchez nowadays has and the strange training methods. Even with a legit coach, Sanchez probably would have hard time getting wins cause his chin is fading, but now with him not even fighting to his strengths (relentless grappling & cardio) he pretty much doesn't have a chance in hell of a win. I think Sanchez that beat Gall could give Matthews trouble as Matthews has tendency to fade, but he just doesn't fight like that any more. 

So Matthews will keep it standing, do his low volume striking with solid takedown defence and Sanchez will dance outside with his strange new style and take a beating. I don't know if Matthews will finish Sanchez, probably won't need to, just pepper him with shots and take a decision. That's not to say Matthews can't KO him, he has some KOs on his record and dropped much bigger man in Emil Meek in his last fight. I just don't think he needs to pursue the finish very aggressively in this fight.

I mean when you look at Diego's record, it does not look so bad lately, but just seeing how off the rails he is with his coach I don't think its gonna end well for him. 

All I can say for sure here is that you can expect something strange if Matthews doesn't just get a fast finish.

Jake Matthews via UD. 

Ludovit Klein vs. Shane Young

Running a 3 KO finish streak, and 6 KOs in his last 7 fights, Ludovit Klein comes to UFC as an exciting new fighter. He is fighting a man whose only loss since 2015 is to the current featherweight champ Alex Volkanovski. So Klein is up against it if he intends to prolong his KO streak, for Young has never been finished in his MMA career.

This is a similar match-up to Young's last fight. Young will walk Klein down and eat counters all night, but put the volume and tire him out. That strategy always works - except if you get caught with a big shot and get finished. So it's pretty close to 50/50 fight for me. I do think if this goes the distance Young is likely to get it just on his volume, but Klein is obviously very powerful guy for the division and has also more of a ground game than Young. On the fence about this one. 

Ehh, guess Shane Young by SD.

William Knight vs. Aleksa Camur

This Knight guy has 9 fights on his record, all are either him getting KOd or the opponent getting KOd - looks like we should be in for a fun fight then. Camur boasts a similar record, 6 fights with 5 KOs and only one decision, with Camur's only decision being his UFC debut.

In that debut Camur got the win but in all realism did not look that great. Justin Ledet, who is only peripherally UFC level fighter, made him work full 3 rounds and landed a lot of good shots. Still, at least Camur seemed competent even if bit less powerful than beating regionals made him seem. Either way it was his debut, so he probably did not perform to best of his ability either.

Knight has very good power, obviously, but his fundamentals aren't that great, particularly takedown defence. He was very closed to being finished in his contender fight, but I think his opponent gassed a little and then got finished with elbows as Knight defended the takedown.

Camur would be smart to spam clinch and takedown attempts, don't know if he has the cardio to do that, but he showed against Ledet he can pepper some wrestling in when necessary. It's really tough fight to call cause Camur probably has the better fundamentals, but he is very hittable and Knight hits hard. 

Fuck it, Knight via 1st round KO.

Jeff Hughes vs. Juan Espino 

The Ultimate Fighter 28 winner Espino is already 39, but his only career loss is against Minakov who is a solid, well-known heavyweight, so this guy is probably at least decent. As for Hughes, the man is still looking for a win in UFC. Espino did obviously well against good competition in TUF 28 and has mostly been winning by submission, so expect predominantly a grappling attack. Those grappling guys, particularly in heavyweight, tend to age better.

The question therefore is whether Hughes can stop the takedown or not. I would say he does not have too bad takedown defence, but the problem is he backs in a straight line so Espino can just start throwing stuff and have Hughes pinned down the fence. Then he can work the clinch and takedowns from there.

Would be wrong to say Hughes has no chance, he can definitely crack him in boxing or defend the takedowns and win rounds, but Espino is the more likely winner here in the end. Hughes might be able to gas out Espino as well if the fight goes deep, but I wouldn't back on that either.

Juan Espino via 2nd round submission.

Khadis Ibragimov vs. Danilo Marques

Ibragimov is quickly becoming one of my favorite bad fighters. Has some skills and power, but just goes full speed from start and gasses in 3 minutes every time. 0-3 in the UFC, but he still gets another crack at it here against UFC Newcomer Danilo Marques. On paper, it should be winnable fight, cause while Marques has 9-2 record, thus far he has fought only pretty bad fighters. Even has some 0-21 guy on his record and has lost to guys on .500 regional records.

Of course, Ibragimov tried to have a more patient approach in his last fight, but he still ended up getting KOd for the first time in his career, and that wasn't so long ago either.

There's not a lot of tape on Marques, all I could find was his 2016 KO loss to Tells, himself a .500 regional guy. Even if there was more tape, it would not tell us too much, as his last fight was 2.5 years ago (against another .500 regional on a losing streak) and the one before that was against the aforementioned 0-21 guy.

Talk about a can crusher, in other words. All in all I see nothing about Marques that would threaten Khadis. For all his flaws, Khadis is at least a solid regional, but Marques seems even kind of a shoddy regional. I guess there is something UFC matchmakers know that I don't, but it seems confusing to bring Marques into the UFC at this time, after being on shelf for so long after decisioning a .500 regional. Maybe they want Khadis to win to give an excuse to book him one more UFC fight. 

Anyway I expect Khadis to be able to keep the fight on the feet and pick off enough good shots to win the fight. 

Khadis Ibragimov via UD.