UFC Fight Night 176 Preview & Predictions
Main Event: Alistair Overeem vs. Augusto Sakai
I had underrated Sakai before the Ivanov fight. Arguably Ivanov did enough to perhaps even deserve the nod in that fight, but no matter what you think about the decision, Sakai was competitive from start to finish with Ivanov who is very close to the top of the division.
So basically that is a long-winded way of me saying Sakai is not a bad fighter. He is solid everywhere, but he also is not spectacularly good. Just being big and having solid skills gets you far in heavyweight division though, and here is main eventing against the legend Overeem himself.
Skill-for-skill Overeem is much the better fighter, but he is 40 years old and gets KOd in basically every fight nowadays. I mean he kinda did in his last fight too where Walt Harris really put him on his back with some devastating shots. Somehow Overeem actually managed to remain conscious, weathered the storm and then finished the exhausted Harris.
Sakai is not as powerful as Harris or Bigi Boy Rozenstruik, so I would give Overeem better chance here not to get dropped, but it's not something you can really rely on. Overeem should win rounds in pure striking here and perhaps even win the fight if it goes to decision, but it seems like risky approach for him to be standing and trading for 5 rounds against any big and powerful guy.
The lowest resistance way to victory would be therefore to wrestle Sakai, but Sakai is not an easy guy to takedown. Still, if this fight goes long, I can see Overeem snatching couple of takedowns. So all in all I think Overeem is likely to win a decision here. Will his chin hold up for 25 minutes? It almost did against Rozenstruik, and Sakai isn't as dangerous.
As much as I think Overeem should be the favorite here, I still feel like I would need him to be underdog to pick him here, simply for that chin being questionable. Granted, Overeem actually has been only KOd by super dangerous guys, a group which I do not include Sakai in. Then again that might be bias from his recent performances going into couple of of split decisions, he still has overall 11 KOs from 16 fights.
Definitely if he clips Overeem solidly on the chin, he will win this fight.
Odds should be closer because of that reason, hence Sakai via 1st round KO.
Co-Main Event: Ovince St. Preux vs. Alonzo Menifield
Already wrote this couple of weeks ago, here's a copypaste of that:
OSP is so tough fighter for me to predict. At his best he is brilliant, at his worst he is abysmal, and sometimes he manages to be both things in the same fight. I went against him in his last two fights and was wrong once and even in latter time he made it into a split decision.
Menifield is pretty classic one round fighter, can completely pulverize you in first round but gasses hard in a longer fight.
So basically we have uncertain qualities on both sides, impossible fight to predict with any reliability.
Thing is, on paper Ovince should be a big step-up from facing Clark, and Menifield already lost to Clark... But on the other hand OSP is already 38 and definitely cannot put on that high output fight that Clark managed. So Alonzo should have much more chances to crack that big shot that finishes the fight.
Even if he does though, OSP just fought at heavyweight and showed he can take a heavy shot. Still, if OSP cannot impose a lot of grappling on Menifield and put a pace on him, I don't see him gassing out so badly. OSP himself tends to slow in long fights, so all-in all I see two relatively likely outcomes where Menifield wins - either he starches OSP in the early going, or slows down a bit but not too much to still outstrike him for two rounds to get a decision.
Of course, OSP can just grab hold of him, take him down and sub him. He won't have too many chances to do that before he gasses either, but it's a possibility. Still, if nothing else Menifield showed decent takedown defence in his last fight. So after some analysis, all signs point to Menifield having this.
Alonzo Menifield via 1st round TKO.
Michel Pereira vs. Zelim Imadaev
My first instinct was not to watch the Pereira v Sanchez fight again, cause I am lazy and I remember it pretty well but man, that was some crazy shit, so why not relive it. So yeah, as you would expect from two easy matchups, both against Connelly and Sanchez, Pereira has been dominant - but in both instances found a way to throw away the fight. In case of Connelly, simply by fading by doing unnecessary shit, which was something he fixed against Sanchez, fighting a much more measured, and smart fight, dominating from start to finish - but then unfortunately landing illegal knee that made Sanchez quit.
Frankly I think that should have been mere point deduction and then technical decision rather than straight up DQ, either way Pereira is looking to snap up a two-fight losing skid, same as his opponent Imadaev. Imadaev is the smaller, inferior fighter here, but he has a tricky style for Pereira to deal with. He likes to just engage in a fight - he is very hittable and has defensive holes everywhere, but just keeps being in the fight with you be it with his sloppy boxing or with clinching, which can be exhausting for an explosive dude like Pereira.
Still, it is almost an afterthought that Imadaev will get hurt at some point of this fight. Will he be able to survive it to wear Pereira out? Gonna be keeping my bets small, cause Pereira has hurt me before, but either way you pick here you can't feel very confident about it.
Imadaev fought last time around someone kinda similar to Pereira in terms that they are explosive outside striker, and obviously he got KOd that time. Expecting something like that happening but much faster this time.
Pereira via 1st round KO.
Kevin Natividad vs. Brian Kelleher
There should be quite big experience gap here as Natividad only turned pro back in 2016 and this will be his 11th pro fight. Kelleher has that many losses alone and has been in UFC almost as long as Natividad has been a pro fighter.
Kelleher showed a decent performance last time around against Stamann, and I say that despite him taking a clear loss. Being up there in age, taking on a high-level contender like Stamann and looking competitive is still overall a good look.
Despite the obvious experience difference, this should still be a good, competitive fight. Both have good skills in every range. Still, Kelleher should be the better guy here, he has fought much the better competition and always been able to keep it close, even if he has a lot of losses in his record. It's not a clear cut fight by any means, but I don't see Natividad being yet at the level to pose big problems for Kelleher, particularly after seeing him hang with Stamann for three rounds.
Brian Kelleher via UD.
Thiago Moises vs. Jalin Turner
Jalin Turner's last fight does not tell us much, as he was fighting a less experienced and completely physically overmatched opponent on short notice, and it looked exactly like that, a squash match. Honestly if anything Turner should have been able to look even more impressive at that great of an advantage. For Moises, things were sort of the opposite.
Moises was thought to be overmatched against much more experienced Michael Johnson, and that seemed to be the case for the first round as he got dominated in striking from pretty much bell to bell. He started the second though pretty much immediately rolling for the leg and... well, it is a Michael Johnson fight, so he threw away a fight that he was dominating - as usual.
Moises will be in trouble here standing as well, being in a huge reach disadvantage, but all in all I am starting to feel Turner is a little bit overrated. Moises can make this fight work via grappling and Turner is usually very willing to engage in those transitions, particularly in the small cage.
All in all both of these guys are highly touted prospects that have kinda been thrown into the deep end and have come up short. Turner has already been KOd 3 times, whereas Moises has never been finished, so I actually think it is reasonably possible for Moises to score a KO here, but obviously the most likely path to victory for him will be to pursue submission.
Thiago Moises via 2nd round submission.
Bartosz Fabinski vs. Andre Muniz
Fabinski is a very good wrestler that had a stint outside the UFC and completely dominated Darren Stewart there. Muniz is a a very competent grappling specialist with a big reach advantage. Is Fabinski good enough to avoid danger and top control his way to victory? Or is he capable of keeping the fight standing and winning a striking battle?
Perhaps Fabinski could just clinch him on the fence Kamaru Usman style? Presuming Fabinski wants to fight like he did against Stewart, he might get in trouble, but it is up to him pretty much where this fight takes place. Certainly against Muniz Fabinski has to pick his shots, any bad takedown attempts will get exploited.
In the end this is the kind of fight where Fabinski is likely to get the decision. Muniz has pretty wooden striking and relies completely on his grappling to get wins, Fabinski certainly could shut that part of his offense out.
Probably gonna be very sloppy striking match between two grapplers, in other words. Arguably Muniz did not even win his last fight, it looks a little dodgy decision in hindsight.
Fabinski via UD.
Montana De La Rosa vs. Viviane Araujo
Close fight on paper. I rate Araujo as slightly better striker and grappler, but the difference is not that big, so it realistically could go either way. Also Araujo is older, whereas De La Rosa is still very much developing as a fighter. Still I do think at least half of this fight will be contested on the ground and in there, Araujo has better chance to get a submission and probably will dominate the position.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is a very similar fight to Araujo's last one against Eye, that realistically could have gone either way in the decision. So yeah, we will see some grappling transitions, and some decent amount of striking, but I think either way Araujo will get the better of it and get a close decision.
Araujo via UD.
Marcos Rogerio De Lima vs. Alexander Romanov
Well undefeated prospect Alexander Romanov who has never seen a decision in his career is thrown in against 10 fight UFC veteran Marcos Rogerio de Lima and it seems a pretty interesting matchup. Romanov is a strong, huge dude and every fight of his seems to go the same way - he closes the distance, gets hold of you, takes you down, mounts you and ground and pounds you with King Kong style hammerfists until ref steps in.
So guess the key question here is whether De Lima can stop that. I'm not so sure he can, he seems like he would rather sit down and throw counters than footwork himself away. Smaller cage also suggests that Romanov will have easy time closing the distance and dominating the fight in his usual manner.
It is a big step-up in competition though, Romanov has not really fought anyone of note thus far, so if he does just takedown De Lima and quickly finish him, that would be very impressive. I think it will be a bit tougher than that, but nonetheless I think the undefeated fighter will stay undefeated.
Romanov via 2nd round TKO.
Cole Smith vs. Hunter Azure
Despite taking a KO loss against Brian Kelleher, I still think Hunter Azure gave a good account of himself, having better of the fight for the most part until Kelleher found the button. Still he showed some good striking and a very high pace, probably a little too high in the end but if he can just tone it down a little he will be a big problem for people.
MMA Betting Twitter was very much against Cole Smith in this match-up, and I gotta say, I honestly don't really get it. Like sure, he does not have much of a stand-up, but he pursues you relentlessly and can grapple very well. Not the most attractive style of fighting, but generally works very well and I think he was somewhat unlucky not to the get the decision in his last fight.
Obviously Azure has big advantage on the feet, but is he good enough of a wrestler to stop Smith's onslaught? He certainly is a decent wrestler. Even if he does stop the takedown, then what? It's not like Smith is gonna stop pursuing the takedown. As soon as he gets hold of Azure - and he will in a smaller cage, he will just stay clinched up rest of the round.
It's matter of if Azure lands enough damage in the meantime to win the round despite getting leaned on for 4 minutes. Which is hard to do. I think it will be a close fight, so I have to go against the grain here.
Cole Smith via SD.
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