UFC Fight Night 177 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Michelle Waterson vs. Angela Hill 

I ain't about to sit through that boring ass Carla Esparza fight again. Needless to say, Waterson probably should have gotten a decision in that one, but she can only blame herself in the end for the fight was very tippy-tappy low-volume affair which judges are more likely to fuck up.

Similarly Angela Hill was on end of a bad decision, however that was closer fight and more high-volume on both ends. All in all I would rate Waterson as the better fighter here, but this is a really interesting matchup for her. Is she the better striker? Probably, but not by a large margin, and I would think as the fight goes deep Angela can pressure Waterson into slowing down.

Only clear advantage Waterson has is her grappling but again, Hill is not easy to takedown, having only been taken down once by much better and bigger offensive wrestler that is Gadelha. So unless Hill is stupid and jumps into Waterson's guard, her grappling advantage won't play a major factor here.

Either way, it will be an extremely close fight.

Angela Hill via SD.

Co-Main Event: Khama Worthy vs. Ottman Azaitar 

Khama Worthy is the more battle-tested of the two, but he has his problems when it comes to fight game. For instance, he does not have much of a takedown defence aside that guillotine, which to be fair got him the finish last time around. At least he is decent at reversing position on the ground and a powerful stand-up fighter. 7 wins in a row suggests that he is very good nonethless.

Of course, Azaitar is even better in that regard, having never tasted defeat being perfect 12-0 with 11 finishes. Problem for him is more that he has not fought really anyone good. Still, he did look very solid in all facets of the fight game against Packalen, who was always gonna get KOd by Azaitar which is why I am not so impressed by the end result itself.

As much as Worthy has not been defeated in a long time, he has been KOd already 5 times in his career, and even against Pena he took some pretty clean shots - Pena not being biggest power puncher played to his favor in that regard. So him being 33, with chin having some wear and tear... that makes me tip the balance to Azaitar's favor. Don't take me wrong, I think it is a close fight and I don't think Worthy will be "chinny" exactly or think that Azaitar KO is the most likely outcome, but... it is likely enough to tip the balance of the prediction.

All in all it seems Azaitar won't put Worthy's dodgy takedown defence to test, but instead throw bombs and try to knock Worthy out. Don't know if that happens, but I do think Azaitar will land enough damage to win a decision.

Ottman Azaitar via UD.

Roxanne Modafferi vs. Andrea Lee 

Roxanne has always been scrappy and tough out to anyone but at 37, and having never been that athletic to begin with, you kinda start to wonder if the journey is approaching an end. I am of course feeling that way after the completely awful performance against Lauren Murphy, decent fighter by any means but definitely someone Roxanne should win, or at least look competitive against.

That's been her strength, always finding some way to hang in the fight, even when mostly outmatched, but against Murphy she just wasn't there. Still, I don't wanna jump into too sweeping conclusions here. It was just one fight, after all. Also Roxanne has been exchanging wins and losses since 2017, so if the pattern continues she should be able to get a win here.

In more serious analysis, they both of course fought against Lauren Murphy last time around and although both lost, for Lee it was a very narrow decision loss that a lot of people thought was a bad decision.

Its worth noting that this is not the first time these two meet, as Lee fought Modafferi already back in 2014, then the fight ending for Roxanne's split decision if. If the fight was already close then with Roxanne in her prime and Lee just an inexperienced newcomer (only her 3rd pro fight), surely it will be a whole different story here?

Lee has the better volume striking, I don't see Roxanne subbing her and she won't have enough in the tank to steal multiple rounds with just grappling. Andrea Lee via UD.

Ed Herman vs. Mike Rodriguez 

Not an easy fight to predict. Herman is based on my ratings the better fighter overall, but in a manner where I don't really see him dominating anywhere, just as a more well-rounded guy... but how good is he actually? Could be at best called an aging journeyman at this point who is tough. Rodriguez does not pass off for a prospect any more at this point of his career and his chin begs questions, but he has physical attributes to be a problem to many guys.

His clinch was devastating in his last performance against Prachnio, but even there he did not look that great until he grabbed hold of his opponent and finished him. Prachnio was always gonna be chinny as well so... I don't know.

Like I said, I see Herman being the guy with more skills but it's hard to imagine where those skills would come into play since it's hard to see him just trying to grapple Rodriguez. On the feet I would give Rodriguez edge for his long reach and decent kicks. If they clinch up, again those high knees and elbows coming will be a problem. Still, all it takes is one solid shot for Rodriguez to drop.

Still I can't get over Rodriguez' physical advantages here. Also the fact Herman is aging and Rodriguez should be on this best, that closes whatever gap they would otherwise have.

Mike Rodriguez via UD. 

Billy Quarantillo vs. Kyle Nelson

It's kinda funny both of these guys have win over Khama Worthy who is in the co-main. Such are the changes in fortunes in this sport. Anyway this is another close fight. Quarantillo likes to grapple and make you fade, whereas Nelson is more of a guy who looks for KO. I think Nelson has generally been defeated against fighters with Quarantillo's style, and I think the fact he pulled through to beat Carlyle was very impressive.

Billy Quarantillo via UD.

Julia Avila vs. Sijara Eubanks

Another fight that seems pretty competitive on paper. Avila can take a shot and put a pace, but Sijara has very clean striking and lot of power. Her problem has been fading in fights and even managing to lose to Bethe Correia is not a good look. 

I have underrated Avila before and definitely won't do it again, but I still rate Sijara as one of the better fighters in the division. Still Avila definitely can push the pace. Force Sijara to clinch up and she will gas her out and avoid needing to take big shots as well. Would expect a pretty wild fight.

Julia Avila via 3rd round submission.

Roosevelt Roberts vs. Kevin Croom

For a supposed "hard-hitting hillbilly", Croom does not have that many KOs and is actually a predominantly a grappler. With few days notice against much more physically gifted Roberts I don't see this going very well for him.

Roosevelt Roberts via UD.

Alan Patrick vs. Bobby Green 

I thought this was some new fighter stepping in to face Bobby Green but nah, Alan Patrick has fought in UFC before, but all the way back in 229, when he got badly exposed by Scott Holtzman. Patrick is offensively potent, but defensively shoddy just, jumping into range hands down. I think Bobby Green will just be too solid for him and pop counter-punches all night on Patrick's chin. 

I think it's more a question of if there will be finish or not. I don't think Green is that heavy-handed though to get a KO here. 

Bobby Green via UD.

Jalin Turner vs. Brok Weaver

Didn't we already see this fight? Oh it was another lanky black dude, Roberts that fought Weaver in his last fight. Obviously Jalin Turner is much worse fighter than Roosevelt Roberts but they have similarities.

I like Brok, but he is in UFC more for his personality and heart than for fighting skill. I would expect him to be more competitive against Turner, but ultimately he isn't gonna have a good time with a more skillful guy. I do hope Brok at least gets a round here, it is very possible with the way he gets on your face and pushes for clinch. 

Jalin Turner via UD. 

Bryan Barberena vs. Anthony Ivy

Again I have to go against the betting Twitter, but at least this time I understand their thought process. Barberena is big favorite, but in my mind he is a big favorite for a reason. Look at the list of guys he has fought, and look who has beaten him - he has lost only to very high level guys. So he might not be elite of the division, but nonetheless a tough, solid guy who won't be easy to beat.

As for Ivy, well he definitely does not fit into the group of guys that Barberena has lost to. I'm not saying it's impossible, I understand people looking for value in betting for Ivy, but I just don't see him having success here. It will be grinding match that Barberena will get a decision.

The betting value is probably, as MMA betting Twitter seems to have surmised, on Ivy who is the naturally bigger guy, but Barberena is tough and is gonna be having easier time clinching up in the small cage. His last performance didn't look great, but we can't draw too large conclusions of one performance and on the other hand, Randy Brown was really sharp that night. Ivy won't be that fast for sure.

Barberena via UD. 

Alexander Romanov vs. Roque Martinez

I wrote in my last preview about Romanov on a fight that never came to be, that the question regarding his opponents is whether they can stop the takedown and GnP that follows it. Well frankly Martinez did a pretty solid job of takedown defence in his last fight, but primarily cause he is a short fighter with low center of gravity, and cause his opponent was already 46 years old.

Romanov will have extremely easy time here closing the distance so he can try many times even if he does not succeed initially. Frankly I think this is a way easier debut for him.

Romanov via 1st round TKO.

Sabina Mazo vs. Justine Kish

You know I always love these early prelim women's fights, right? Particularly at the end of a research marathon when I already watched dozen fights that day...

Kish is pretty awful. Mazo is rangier and has very good clinch. She is also young and might show up vastly improved since last performance. Even if she does not though, she is much better to begin with and this should not be competitive. 

Sabina Mazo via 2nd round submission.