UFC Fight Night 178 Post-Fight Analysis

Yea, I know these are late, but I have been busy since the event. Might as well dissect the event a little bit now.

Main Card

So Tyron did it. Backed up to the fence, feinted, loaded up the right, never actually committed to any powershots and lost 15 rounds straight. It's quite remarkable, the decline of Woodley. Someone said he looked slow, but I don't think so. He still looks swole, he still seems like he could crack, he still seems sharp and he definitely can still take a shot. He just... doesn't throw with any conviction. 

Of course with all that said the main event was as predictable in the end as fights ever come. I don't know what's the matter with Tyron, but backing him against pretty much any high level fighter is silly at this point.

The co-main was much more interesting fight, with Niko Price forcing the fight on Cowboy for whole three rounds. In the end draw was probably fair reflection of it, with Cowboy showing he still has much more chin left than he is credited for, but at the same time one would have perhaps expected him to land a bit more on the powerful yet crude Price. Certainly if we were told that Price lands the volume on Cowboy before the fight, we would have thought for sure Cowboy gets knocked out.

Cowboy has to start thinking of retirement here though. His chin is not gone, but there isn't much of it left and he seems to certainly be slowing down. Again if we were told beforehand that this fight goes to decision, almost everyone would have thought well Cowboy will easily win then? Not so much, his output was somewhat low and his sharpness is declining. Honestly I wouldn't think it would be bad way to go out if this was Cerrone's last fight. Wishful thinking probably, when did an MMA fighter get out early enough?

Although I picked Meerschaert just as a speculative, small punt with no expectation of there being any value in there, he still managed to make me look stupid by being completely frozen with nerves in front of Chimaev who just cracked him once hard and it was all that was needed. 

As for Chimaev, the hype train was rolling strongly before the fight, and hardly anyone could have expected the hype could pick up even more, but the manner he destroyed Meerschaert will have people going even more crazy for him. Like I said, I think it's a fun hype train and I hope it keeps gaining momentum. I really don't like Maia fighting him, can't Maia fight some volume guy rather? I think Maia will be tough opponent anyway but I just think if he loses, it would be by a bad KO and I really don't want that to happen to him. 

Johnny Walker and Ryan Spann had just as chaotic fight as one would expect. On paper I suppose Walker should be much better than Spann, but that was a close shave with both of them getting hurt in the course of the fight. Walker remains defensively suspect and chinny, but win is a win and either way he remains must-see fighter who never puts in boring fights.

Seeing low fight IQ in women's fights has become something of a regular occurrence lately, but Randa Markos probably hit the top score in that realm by jumping into multiple time BJJ world champ's guard. Yeah, how's an awful, slipped kick (no insult, I've done that a few times myself and probably will do it in the future as well) for offensive wrestling?

Only time I would mess with Dern's guard is MAYBE at final minute of the round if I have her hurt or something, but Markos just jumped right in there in the early going of the fight and got subbed very fast. So in the end we didn't learn much new things in this fight, just another confirmation Dern's stand-up is pretty rudimentary and that her grappling is devastating. 

Kevin Holland and Darren Stewart had very close fight as expected. They went back and forth the full time with both having their moments, with Holland probably deservedly getting the nod in the end via split decision.

Prelims

David Dvorak beat Jordan Espinosa 30-27 but it was much closer fight that the numbers suggest - Dvorak just was that little bit ahead on every round. Dvorak certainly has strong fundamentals and doesn't need to improve a lot to challenge the top fighters of the division.

Mirsad Bektic dominated pretty much from start to finish, except he set himself a pace that he could not keep and once the gas started running out in the 3rd round, that is when Damon Jackson capitalized and got the choke to steal the win. Damaging loss to Bektic's career, it's bad enough he has been KOd couple times already, now he gets subbed too so he will be in the fringes of the featherweight division for a while after this. 

Mayra Bueno Silva could not stop Mara Romero Borella's takedown, but it didn't matter as Borella did not react to the danger in her guard but rather left her arm exposed and Silva promptly subbed her with an armbar. 

Jessica-Rose Clark and Sarah Alpar fight was deemed somewhat competitive according to the odds beforehand, but this was a fight I called exactly correctly. Well... I didn't actually call for very much but I did say Alpar was defensively shoddy and she showed it consistently through the fight, don't think she blocked or slipped any punches Clark threw at her. In the end she was badly bloodied and battered, and wasn't helped by Chris Tognoni FUCKING UP AGAIN by not calling a clear TKO. 

So Alpar got an uncalled for return to the fight but unlike Ed Herman, she could not find a way to turn the situation into a victory, so it just became a case of her absorbing lot more unnecessary damage before fight was called just 40 seconds before 15 minutes would have been up. The kind of shit that shortens fighters' careers. 

Laramie was better fighter on paper than Darrick Minner, but Minner's first round is always dangerous and this time he latched onto that neck and cranked until he got the tap. I think I am gonna end up betting on Minner a lot, he will always be an underdog, but at the same time has always good chance of winning it early.

I figured Journey Newson would be the overall better fighter than Randy Costa, but we really did not get to see if that would have been the case, as he absorbed a headkick that would have KOd anyone. Not calling it a fluke, obviously crafty striking from Costa, but it also is one of those chaotic things that can end any fight suddenly. 

Irwin Rivera remains as game as they come, but he was always gonna be at huge physical disadvantage against Ewell. The fight was competitive, but Ewell remained on top through the fight and has improved his stamina, although he still clearly did fade towards the end. 

Tyson Nam and Jerome Rivera started off the night with a fight that was back-and-forth until Nam found the button with a hard cross and put Rivera on his ass for the TKO. He also did a pretty smart callout of Benavidez, who is probably shot an offers a decent chance for a high-profile win. It also makes sense for Benavidez if he thinks of continuing his career.

My picks

It was a good night in terms of picks, ended up on 3.5 bets profit after getting 9 out of 13 right (draw didn't count). It would have been bit less if my Bektic bet went through, but sometimes its good luck to have a shitty betting site. Either way the best pick of the night was clearly the underdog Minner cashing, though that is always gonna be bit hit-and-miss pick. There were couple of honorable mentions, Colby obviously since the fight was easy to call beforehand exactly right, and Jessica-Rose Clark winning as Alpar had no defence. Good eye from myself there.

On the other hand that Meerschaert pick, as speculative as it was, and even though it was my minimum betsize, is still the dumbest bet of the night when the guy can't even make it competitive. Can't really blame myself on any of the other picks, they were close fights or just those things that happen in MMA.

Next weekend is the big one... well, it's a top heavy card, actually I think that this fight night had solid quality throughout and was one of the better events since fights have been back.