UFC Fight Night 178 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley

I ain't gonna sit through Woodley's last fight, I don't need to see him back to the fence and load up right hand that never comes for 5 rounds again. I did watch Covington's last fight again, after all that fight was a joy to behold.

This one is fairly straightforward. Prime Tyron would be interesting match-up for Colby, but that Tyron is forever gone. Covington has a great chin and I don't expect that Usman fight having taken that much out of his durability, considering he has taken his time to come back for another fight, and even in that fight it rarely was the first shot that landed on him, it was mostly Usman getting combinations going and landing with the 2nd or 3rd strike. 

Woodley, at least the current iteration, just does not have that kind of volume, so chances of him bombing Colby out of there are slim. Colby on the other hand will put the volume and pressure on Tyron the whole fight. So at best Tyron might land something hard one round and get that round, but seems even that is unlikely. Tyron is 38, and hasn't had a good fight in over 2 years. I just don't see it happening any other way than Colby by another sweep.

Colby Covington via 50-45x3

Co-Main Event: Donald Cerrone vs. Niko Price

I honestly completely forgot about Cerrone fighting Pettis in between, the memory of him getting shoulder bumped to oblivion by McGregor was so strong it eclipsed everything else. 

I think this is a very close fight, but I was leaning towards Cerrone, as he is obviously the more skilled fighter. Seeing Price's last fight again... Sure, he got outclassed by Luque, but he did make Luque eat a lot of hard shots as well. Cerrone is a smaller man, is already 37 years old, has lost 4 times in a row, with three of them coming via a finish. Sure, against very elite level competition, but in smaller division.

It's gonna be one of those fights where someone is winning... until they aren't any more. Price will connect something hard on Cerrone and put him down and out. I hope I am wrong, I like Cerrone, and definitely if he does not get finished, there is lot of ways Cerrone will win it. He can outstrike Price, even KO him, but most likely he will pursue well-timed takedowns and win via top control or submission.

Either way, the odds being close is a correct one, still I lean on power and (relative) youth beating experience this time. Niko Price via 2nd round KO.

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Gerald Meerschaert

No point in watching Chimaev's last outing, not relevant competition and since it's so recent, everyone remembers the smashing. Meerschaert has been fighting much bigger guys, but stylistically it's not the best match-up for someone who likes to lie on his back and hunt for submissions.  

It is a big step-up in competition, but Chimaev should be able to handle it. Think the original Maia match-up was actually more tricky and interesting. However, the odds are far too wide for a hype train. I still think Chimaev will win it, but at the present odds, I have to switch my pick to GM.

Meerchaert via 2nd round submission.

Johnny Walker vs. Ryan Spann

Walker must have been one of the worst hype-train derailings in recent memory, first getting knocked out by a wrestler, then getting dominated by Krylov. He is getting a step down in competition here to face Ryan Spann, and should be having a better chance here. 

Spann has some decent wrestling and clinch game, but he does not seem capable of really putting volume on anyone. Getting hurt and going into a split decision against Sam Alvey in 2020 is not a great look. 

At least Sam Alvey has pretty good clinch/takedown defence, something that Walker might struggle with, but Walker is far rangier and more dynamic striker and Alvey managed to put a hurting on Spann.

For Spann to win, he either needs to catch Walker on the chin, which certainly is possible considering how defensively suspect and chinny he is. More likely way to win for Spann though will be very measuredly going after the clinch. He can't afford to get gassed like he did against Alvey, but he can definitely get the better of Walker in the clinch. 

Still both of these guys are suspect of gassing, both of them have been hurt with punches, so it's kind of a free for all. Since Spann probably can't keep Walker glued on the fence the whole fight without gassing, he is always liable to get caught with something wild.

Johnny Walker via 2nd round KO.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Randa Markos 

Obviously Dern is the better grappler here, but I would suspect she still struggles to get it down. Markos has pretty wooden striking though, so I actually think Dern might have a chance to even win here by outstriking Markos. Either way, the fight is pretty close standing up and Dern's advantage on the ground makes it so that I lean towards her having this.

Markos might be able to keep it out of there, but even then I am not convinced she can win all the rounds standing. In the end it's a pretty close match-up anyway.

Mackenzie Dern via UD.

Kevin Holland vs. Darren Stewart

Very interesting fight. Stewart usually struggles with guys who wrestle-fuck him, but Holland for sure won't do that, he will look to be an outside striker in this matchup. Holland has great power without needing to load up too much, but Stewart has fought other big power guys without getting finished, so he has good durability.

I will have to see the odds, I think Stewart is perhaps the better rounded off the two, but as we saw against Pitolo he can get outstruck fairly easily and Holland has crazy reach. Stewart is playable if he is sizable dog, but I lean towards Holland winning this. 

Right on the edge for me, Darren Stewart via UD for me.

Jordan Espinosa vs. David Dvorak

Espinosa is a fast and pretty rangy guy for the flyweight division, but Dvorak is really solid everywhere and probably can put on the kind of suffocating performance that gets the job done here. 

David Dvorak via UD.

Mirsad Bektic vs. Damon Jackson

It's funny to think that Bektic has been in UFC for 6 years now but he is still only 29 and the younger than the UFC newcomer in Damon Jackson. Bektic is now on a run of couple of back-to-back losses, but this one should be a pretty clear drop in competition. That being said, Jackson is pretty solid guy, he has only been KOd couple of times, once by current UFC fighter Kevin Aguilar and once by flying knee. 

Predominantly a grappler, Jackson has some good power so if we can land the hard shot he can definitely crack Bektic's chin which has been looking a little dodgy lately. 

No matter how tough you think Jackson is, Bektic just went to a decision with one of the best UFC featherweights in Dan Ige. That is no joke and puts Bektic still pretty high up in the rankings. 

I think the chance of Jackson scoring a KO here is higher than 0 but it's not that high, Bektic should be comfortably better striker and he is solid enough grappler that I don't expect him to get in trouble here. Jackson is good, but going from fighting the very elite of the division to fighting him should be pretty safe spot to get a win for Bektic. Obviously if he gets finished again it would be a huge blow for him.

Mirsad Bektic via UD.

EDIT: Apparently there has been last minute change of opponent, never mind that, but still picking Bektic.

Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Mara Romero Borella

Honestly not feeling very strongly here. I think Silva is pretty good fighter, but Borella is not much worse and she can probably win this by riding top position. Borella has fought much tougher competition, hence finds herself on a 3 fight losing streak. 

Still, I think Silva is a talented fighter, and hopefully she has cleaned some of her deficiencies from the UFC debut. That being the case, she can definitely get a win here and probably is worth a punt.

Silva via UD.

Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Sarah Alpar

Alpar is defensively very shoddy, but offensively potent. Kinda hard to gauge how good she actually is, I think Clark makes sense here as much the more quantity, although she is not that great of a fighter herself. Either way she is more battle-tested and has never been finished.

Clark via UD.

Darrick Minner vs. TJ Laramie

The odds should be pretty lopsided for Laramie. Minner either wins in the first round with sub or KO, or fades and gets top controlled to oblivion. If the odds are wide enough Minner is worth a punt, in other cases it's clear Laramie pick.

Minner via 1st round sub. It's on the edge but let's gamble. 

Journey Newson vs. Randy Costa

Beating chinless Boston Salmon does not really tell us much about Costa, so we have to presume Newson is the much better fighter here despite having physical disadvantages. Also the small cage works in his favor, its not hard to close the distance and clinch up costa.

Newson via UD.

Andre Ewell vs. Irwin Rivera

Pretty close match-up, Rivera has given a decent account of himself as a game fighter, but I just don't see him being good enough wrestler to consistently impose his game on Ewell. Ewell has huge reach advantage, is much the faster boxer and definitely will be tagging Rivera a lot.

I do think if Rivera can make the fight go deep, Ewell will fade, but I don't think it will happen soon enough to win two rounds. There's also decent chance Ewell finishes the fight even if he isn't the most heavy-handed guy.

Ewell via UD.

Tyson Nam vs. Jerome Rivera

Nam has lot of losses in his record, but he has never been subbed, and that happens to be Rivera's main method of victory. Nam is a tough veteran who is solid everywhere, very good test for young prospect Rivera. I think Nam's experience will show in the end and he will ride out to a victory, just edging close rounds.

Tyson Nam via UD.