UFC 254 Post-Fight Analysis

I finally do well in a big event! What a big event it indeed was. Khabib cements his status as the GOAT and retires at the top.

Main Card

There was endless speculation that Justin was a whole new kind of challenge for Khabib, someone with power who can also stuff takedowns... Well honestly that sounds like Conor to me, and I still think McGregor was bigger challenge for Khabib than Justin ever was.

However my prediction for the fight turned out decidedly wrong, for Justin did not get taken down off of first powershot or legkick that he landed. He made sure not to overcommit, remained fleetfooted and moved backwards so that Khabib could not get close to him. Problem is that it also limited how much damage he was landing on Khabib. 

Gaethje did land some powershots on Khabib and rung his bell a couple of times, but overall it never seemed like Khabib was in big danger and there was not a whole combinations landing on Khabib. Also it became evident very soon that Justin had never fought like this. Yeah, his conditioning seems good when he is backing you up with powershots and forward pressure, but its whole different game when being constantly pursued. Justin's gastank was gone already at the end of first, and Khabib had arguably outstruck him.

In the second it did not take long for Khabib to get the fight to the ground and the finish was nothing short of slick. Khabib cut through Justin's grappling defence like hot knife through butter and choked him unconscious immediately. It was just another masterclass, and from the looks of it, the final masterclass from the champion. Can't fault him for retiring after his father's death, hope he finds fulfilling content to his life after fighting career.

In the co-main Robert Whittaker also put in something of a masterclass, but it had its blemishes. Cannonier could not impose his power on Robert outside of chopping at his leg, but thankfully that did not become a problem over the course of the three round fight. However Rob did get clipped near the end, which again raises questions about his chin. Either way when you mostly stay out of the way of powershots, that is good enough even with somewhat shoddy chin.

Alexander Volkov put in a rather dominant display also over powerful but basic Walt Harris. Harris could not find his way into Volkov's reach, and Volkov used his size to full effect, keeping Harris on backfoot before popping a front kick into his belly that had Harris wincing in pain and curling up for the fight to be stopped. Great win from Volkov, he is a big problem for people who are not wrestlers. I think fight against Ngannou would be hella interesting.

Phil Hawes took on inexperienced newcomer Jacob Malkoun and completely exposed him, showing without a doubt that it is a bad idea to put guy with only 4 fights into UFC main card. Malkoun got put out cold in just 18 seconds. Hawes is a dangerous guy... at least in the first round.

Lauren Murphy imposed all of her strength and size on Liliya Shakirova, who showed some decent skill in the two rounds that the fight lasted, but was ultimately not good enough to hang with someone as experienced and physical as Murphy is. Murphy grabbed her first submission win and then staked a claim for #1 contender spot... I don't know, it's so dead division that I guess she has some claim for that, either way Valentina is just gonna keep putting girls into body bags.

The rivalry between Ankalaev and Cutelaba was buried for good, and ref almost forced Ankalaev to make sure they would bury Cutelaba as well, as he waited for Ankalaev to GnP him completely out cold before stepping it. That's why you don't cry so much about the early stoppages, knockout like that has long-term implications to Cutelaba. 

Either way Cutelaba made mistake pursuing this matchup in the first place, he simply isn't good enough and this time there was no doubt about the matter. Would have been better for his career simply to take the initial L and move on, fight someone easier, get a win then bounce back. Now he has back to back stoppages on his record and perhaps permanently compromised chin.

Prelims

In the technical fight of the evening, Tai Tuivasa backed Stefan Struve to the fence, landed something kinda solid I guess, and Struve tumbled down to be finished by ground and pound. Surely Struve is retired after this? Tuivasa improved but still isn't exactly world beater either. Almost a meaningless match at the very bottom of the UFC heavyweight division. 

Shamkat Rakhmonov had a tough debut match-up with his hands against Cowboy Oliveira, who isn't the best fighter in the welterweight division, but dangerous against anyone for a round, with lot of range and power. He is also pretty good on all ranges, so one had to figure Rakhmonov would need to win by attrition.

However the debutant showed that aside getting smacked by one hard shot in the beginning, he was skillful and in control, taking over the fight already in first round before landing some damage and ultimately outgrappling Oliveira to a submission finish. Big feather for his cap to finish Cowboy early without having much trouble in the progress, better guys have suffered more in hands of Oliveira.

Da Un Jung was the most disappointing pick of the night, getting soundly outstruck by Sam Alvey for most of the fight. Only his durability kept him in the fight and he finally started landing something in the final round, rocking Alvey multiple times but infuriatingly looking for clinch instead of putting together enough damage for a finish. Either way he got the final round wide enough to squeak to split draw. Alvey will be disappointed about missing out now on wins twice in a row via close decisions.

Casey Kenney and Nathaniel Wood put on a high-pace, high skill fight that delivered the kind of excitement that everyone expected from it. Wood started very brightly, but slowed down during first round, probably realizing that the pace he needed to put to keep the initiative was something he would not be able to maintain. So Kenney kept relentlessly attacking, running away with round one but then it turned out that it was a pace he was not able to keep either.

So Kenney tired and looked to lose the second round, though perplexingly he got the second round in two of the scorecards. Either way, Kenney still had enough in the tank to press the action in the third as Wood also started to fade. Extremely close round, extremely close decision, Kenney got it in the end but both had a great showing.

Liana Jojua got thoroughly dominated through the first round against Miranda Maverick, getting her nose busted in the process. Although the cut seemed relatively harmless, doctor decided to stop the fight. I would have been gutted if it was me (received similar cut in the 1st round of my fight, stopped the guy in the 2nd), but it did not seem like Jojua had any way back into the fight and would have only gotten more damaged if it was let continue, so perhaps all in all good eye for fighting from the doc.

Alexander Yakovlev figured that the best way to deal with Joel Alvarez' range would be to take him down, but he was in for a rude awakening as Alvarez went for a few submission attempts and ultimately took home his arm for the victory in the 1st. 

My picks

I've been having poor time lately, but tonight the fortunes turned. I was on favorite in pretty much all of the fights and it was an event with few surprises, so I got 10 out of 11 right with one draw not counting. That was enough to bring me profit of 4 bets. Only reverts some of the recent losses, but I am sure I will be in high spirits for a while after this.

I feel best about being right about Khabib, despite the odds and other punters making me doubt myself. Okay, I did not completely call the fight right, but either way Justin completely changing his style as he did was always unlikely to work in his favor. 

I think my Murphy pick was the second best aside that, Murphy showed herself to be as strong and experienced as I expected, simply too much for debuting regional fighter to deal with.

Worst pick was the only outright wrong pick, with Jared Cannonier becoming exhibit one million about power being the most overrated quality in fighters - it's useless to have if you can't land it consistently. Don't feel good about Jung pick either, but luckily got saved to a draw with that one. 

It's good event to build onto. Hope I can keep winning next weekend. I got a small win last weekend in UFC as well, so guess I have a little streak of two winning events now.