UFC 254 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje

It's very rare I feel strongly about any MMA fight before it happens. I have been so sure and so wrong so many times, that it has made me learn my lesson and to be cautious about too much certainty.

Yet I can't really see what people are talking about when they think Gaethje will be such a tough test to Nurmagomedov. I rewatched that Tony fight and both of them looked very sloppy. Gaethje has improved, and fights very strategically, make no mistake he is a very good fighter, but it is all based off of strong base of toughness and powerful punches, not on some virtuoso skill. He is great fighter, but nothing extraordinary.

That's what I feel it would take to beat Khabib. Cause Khabib has ragdolled many great fighters, fighters with solid takedown defences and dangerous striking. He laid a brutal beating on all of them. The key point is that Khabib is a master of closing the distance. And once he is on you, no one has managed to get him off them. How is Gaethje different in that? 

Gaethje's high level wrestling has been subject to lot of talk, but that's almost a moot point. It doesn't matter how good of a wrestler you are against Khabib, fact is he is better and will drag you down if you give him time. The key to beating Khabib is somehow avoiding those grappling transitions altogether. Which is what makes Khabib so difficult to beat.

So in the end I feel the only thing special about Gaethje (compared to Khabib's previous opposition) is that he is really tough and hits hard. Which is something, I guess. Khabib has been tagged before, he seems very hittable, but so far in his career he has been able to take everything dished at him. Against Conor he even managed to avoid the Irishman's power altogether with the early takedown. 

All in all, I really don't see how this fight is gonna go different from this? Khabib will bait some powershots out of Justin, time them (or eat them) to grab hold of him and wrestlefuck him for the rest of the round. Rinse and repeat for five rounds as Gaethje's will and stamina drain out with Khabib's relentless attack. Can some of those powershots take Khabib out and compromise him? I suppose so, but that's pretty much all Gaethje has. 

Could Gaethje hurt and compromise Khabib early? Obviously that is possibility, but even if Khabib gets a little rocked or has his leg kicked, I don't think it will reduce his ability to wrestle much. Final consideration is what if Gaethje can defend the takedowns? Well, I suppose everyone can to an extent, but Khabib is relentless and he does not need to take you down to still win the round. 

So yeah, there might not be much betting value here, but I am all for Khabib here. Only uncertainties for me are Khabib's dad dying making his mind not be right and/or the weight cut having been rough, but you kinda think Khabib has had rough cuts before so that's not a big deal.  

Khabib via UD.

Confidence in winner: 5

Co-Main Event: Robert Whittaker vs. Jared Cannonier

So Whittaker levels up in opponents from Gorilla to the Killa Gorilla. I would say difficulty level goes up, Till is kind of a power kickboxer, but Jared is even bigger and stronger version. Last time out Whittaker's chin stood the test, as there has been some doubts cast on it after all the wars Whittaker has gone through. 

One might say that Cannonier has been rushed to title contention, after all beating aged Branch and Silva is not much of a resume, but when you are KOing people left and right, you're gonna get ahead faster, that's a fact. Hermansson win for sure is legit and shows Cannonier has power to shut out anyone's lights. 

Cannonier's striking is very meat and potatoes but that's all you need when you have so much power. Cannonier has got pretty much everyone hurt with his leg kicks and I expect him to build on that. He is probably too big for Whittaker to consistently ground him, so the way for Whittaker to win is to keep it cautious and pop him from the outside, similarly as he did against Till. If Cannonier catches him similarly to how Till did lunging inside, I really expect Whittaker to get KOd here.

Provided Whittaker stays cautious though, he won't have much threat aside those leg kicks. At what point though does his legs accumulate enough damage to start to compromise the fight for him. Also Cannonier will start to put more and more pressure on him as the fight gets deeper.

All in all I expect that either Cannonier starches Whittaker or it will be a very close decision. 

Jared Cannonier via 2nd round TKO.

Confidence in winner: 2

Alexander Volkov vs. Walt Harris

No, not gonna sit through the Blaydes fight for this one. I mean Volkov did kinda well and awfully simultaneously in that fight. He could not stop any of Blaydes' wrestling, but did admirably to get back to his feet all through the fight, with the fight ending as Blaydes exhausted and without Volkov having taken much damage. If it was fight to the death, I would have bet on Volkov, unfortunately it ended after 25 minutes to Blaydes victory.

All-in all, Volkov is still one of the best fighters of the division. As for Harris, everyone also has fresh in the memory the rough way he lost to Overeem, after having him badly hurt but then gassing himself while going for the finish.

Typical Harris fight ends quickly or becomes a grinding decision. I think Volkov might get KOd early on, but his technical skill on the range should get him the win if Harris doesn't get him out of there quick.

Alexander Volkov via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Phil Hawes vs. Jacob Malkoun

I guess they were really short of fighters since they made this fight. Hawes fresh off of contender series, and Malkoun making his UFC debut only after four regional fights, couple of them going to decision. Unusual spot to find yourself in the UFC for sure. 

Hawes at least looks like he belongs to this level, has good fundamentals, some decent level experience, rounded skillset and plenty of power (all of his fights have ended in a finish). Malkoun on the other hand is more of an unknown quantity due to lack of high level experience, even his latest decision win was against a 3-2 guy. 

I think Hawes will probably be just fine on the feet with Malkoun, but for sure if he does get cracked, it should be fairly easy for him to take this fight down, so all in all Malkoun has a pretty slim puncher's chance here against much more experienced opponent.

Hawes via UD.

Confidence in winner: 4

Liliya Shakirova vs. Lauren Murphy

Say what you will about Lauren Murphy, but she is for sure a tough fighter very near the top of the rankings at flyweight and legitly so. She looks in shape, ready and absolutely cut for the fight this weekend, so would expect very strong showing. Running hot on 3 fight win streak, she will be very harsh welcome to UFC for the newcomer Shakirova who probably is on short camp as well since there was relatively recent opponent change here.

Shakirova is bit of an unknown quantity, but from whatever I saw nothing seems remarkable, she seems to primarily pursue grappling with low volume output of powershots in striking. All in all nothing that I would think would threaten Murphy here. She will probably be somewhat timid also knowing it is her UFC debut, so all in all I think Murphy cruises to victory here. 

Lauren Murphy via UD.

Confidence in winner: 4

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba

I already wrote this preview. Let me look it back up and attach it here, then see if I have anything more recent to add.

"We saw this episode already. The problem here is, in the little time the previous fight went on, Ankalaev already showed he is the better fighter and the odds now are more reflective of that... almost to a point Cutelaba might be the play here.

Someone argued Ankalaev's wins in the UFC aren't all that. Sure enough, he has not fought anyone truly elite yet, but the guys he has fought, he has dominated pretty thoroughly. His only blemish is the strange last second tap against Craig in a fight he controlled for 14 minutes. 

So yeah, as much as the odds try to tempt me, it's hard to pick Cutelaba here. In the end though, it's two huge guys, both with lot of power, and one strike can change everything. So stranger things have definitely happened. Cutelaba has a good punchers chance here.

The previous fight was early stoppage, but either way even when faking getting hurt, Cutelaba was not able to catch Ankalaev with anything. Also people might say Ankalaev wins aren't all that, but neither are Cutelaba's - anyone truly elite he has come up against he has lost to. 

Magomed Ankalaev via UD."

Nothing to add here, if anything I feel more confident in Ankalaev now. Aside for lapse in concentration against Craig, his career has been near flawless so far. Cutelaba is powerful and that gives him a chance, but realistically this is Ankalaev's fight to lose.

Confidence in winner: 4

Stefan Struve vs. Tai Tuivasa

Is this the quintessential "not so good but somewhat famous" heavyweight match-up? Struve got this far being built like a giraffe and Tuivasa by hitting hard, neither has reached very high level of skill though. 

Struve has been KOd 8 times and someone like Tuivasa is gonna look at record like that with a salivating mouth. Tuivasa himself has been on something of a slump after really rocketing into fame in the early part of his UFC stint. Tuivasa found himself facing against Junior Dos Santos only bit over a year after his UFC debut, and was finally exposed as one-dimensional brawler. Ivanov up next was not a big step down in competition, but end result was still the same. 

Finally UFC matched him with someone he should bounce back with a win with, but surprisingly Sergey Spivak beat him quite comfortably. 

I guess it's safe to say that whoever loses here is completely finished as UFC fighter, but at least if it is Tuivasa, he is still young and has years to work on himself and change his career trajectory. For Struve this is a must-win scenario, but he has been talking already of the retirement many times. 

Either way its unfortunate the way Struve's last fight went, cause he was doing very well up until getting cockshotted for a second time. After that he lost his composure and got finished. Struve will always have a chin issues, but when you have range like that, opponent have to be willing to get down and dirty to get inside to land those shots. 

Tai Tuivasa has exactly that style though, and although Spivac in many ways exposed him, he did look solid in the stand-up before being drowned by the constant takedowns. Struve won't drown him into grappling, or at least think its less likely, so Tuivasa has a better chance here to impose his striking and get the KO.

Still I can't help but to feel that Struve will just comfortably dominate from range for most of the fight. This one is definitely up the air for me, guess I will take whoever has better odds here.

Of course it's 50/50 then. Uhh, I guess Tuivasa via 2nd round TKO.

Confidence in winner: 1

Alex Oliveira vs. Shamkat Rakhmonov

Cowboy Oliveira is one of those "almost" guys. Almost good enough to beat anyone, but not quite. He is always live dog against anyone cause he has explosiveness and range, but most competent fighters can take him to deep waters where he gasses out. Kazakh fighter Shavkat Rakhmonov comes to UFC with undefeated 12-0 record with all finishes and Oliveira will be a tough test for him. Although Oliveira has been finished a few times, it is no easy feat to do, as Oliveira has seen decision now 4 times in a row.

Although Rakhmonov has fought solid competition outside of UFC, it's really hard to look at the video material on him and feel confident he can handle Oliveira. I mean it's still a big step-up, and although it seems Rakhmonov has good grappling, I am not sure about how well he can force himself into the clinch with Oliveira popping power counters at him.

Still, he seems like he could have the kind of style that could defeat Cowboy. I have to see the odds here, both definitely have a chance of winning this, Oliveira by KO or via forcing low-volume striking match, and Rakhmonov by forcing the clinch and wearing Oliveira out. 

Rakhmonov via SD.

Confidence in winner: 2

Da Un Jung vs. Sam Alvey

Alvey has now taken 4 losses in a row and will probably see his UFC contract under threat here. Either way that Ryan Spann fight showed he is not completely spent force, he forced a split decision there and some might argue he should have won. 

Jung on the other hand is riding high, having remained undefeated since 2015. He hasn't fought high level competition, but at least Mike Rodriguez win is a decent one and he absolutely starched Rodriguez. He is actually running a solid 7 finish streak right now, and I don't think its unfeasible that he cracks Alvey's chin as well. 

Alvey was taking a lot of shots against Spann, obviously he managed to take it that time, but I wouldn't trust his chin after all the mileage. Probably gonna be a close slug fest, but Jung is too accurate and powerful for Alvey.

Da Un Jung via 2nd round TKO.

Confidence in winner: 3

Casey Kenney vs. Nathaniel Wood

Great fight right in the early prelims. Both of these guys are prospects with potential to become one of the best bantamweights on the planet, and they both are already right on the verge of contention to begin with. Whoever wins is gonna have his stock very high after this.

Both being so well-rounded is also what makes this fight so difficult to call. Wood fights a longer style, but I would say after the kicking clinic that Kenney put on Alatangheili, he might have advantage at range. Still, even in that fight Kenney was getting clipped by some counters, so it seems like Kenney would be kicking Wood to smithereens while Wood would be popping volume of counter punches in there.

It also seems more likely Wood would, because of that, pursue more the clinch. Both have excellent cardio too, so whatever happens, it will be high volume fight. It's not a stretch to imagine this to be fight of the night, they could both keep hurting each other and as they both are durable, it could become an epic war. I think Kenney is the more durable of the two, so I give some advantage to him, but all in all expect a very close fight that is most likely to end in a very close decision. 

Casey Kenney via UD.

Confidence in winner: 2

Liana Jojua vs. Miranda Maverick 

I didn't find much relevant tape on Maverick, but I don't rate Jojua very highly to begin with, and Maverick at least has somewhat reputable win in beating Pearl Gonzales. Think Maverick will be adept enough grappler to avoid Jojua's submissions and just beat her in every other facet of the fight

Miranda Maverick via UD. 

Confidence in winner: 2

Joel Alvarez vs. Alexander Yakovlev

Pretty good matchmaking here. Alvarez looks like a pretty legit prospect with ridiculous reach for the lightweight division, as well as lethal sub game, 15 of his 17 wins are via submissions. Yakovlev is a solid former welterweight who went to decision with Usman but seems to struggle with gas tank at lightweight division.

Regardless of Yakovlev's rough-looking record, he is a tough match-up for anyone. He has good wrestling and decent striking, but you kinda feel like he will fall a little short here on both deparments. Certainly with Alvarez' reach he does need to get inside and probably pursue a wrestling game plan, but that is risky with Alvarez' submissions. If he can submit someone like Duffy with ease, he is a big danger to anyone and we saw Yakovlev get caught couple of times in guillotines by Roberts.

All in all it's hard to imagine how Yakovlev wins here. He has OK striking, but does not put together particularly impressive volume and isn't really a big KO threat, and the three inches of reach he gives up will have him disadvantaged in the first place. 

Still it would be silly to count him out of this, Yakovlev has much more high level experience, but Alvarez seems like a very legit prospect. I expect a competitive fight that Alvarez will win either by snapping up a submission or via close decision. Yakovlev's best chance is to score some takedowns, stay out of trouble in grappling and/or hurt Alvarez in the striking. 

Alvarez via UD

Confidence in winner: 3