UFC Fight Night 179 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Marlon Moraes vs. Cory Sandhagen

I've bet against Sandhagen pretty much every step of the way, but last time around I bet for him, and of course he lost... So I raise up my hands, I can't figure if this guy is gonna win or not.

Anyway Moraes has put on a pretty impressive resume in UFC. The guy finished Rivera, Sterling and Assuncao, all top contenders, in a row. Then he of course dominated Henry for the first round before badly fading under pressure in the title fight, and had a very tight fight with Aldo where public things he lost but he got the decision. Either way it was very close fight to call.

Both are good strikers in the outside, I think Moraes might be the better grappler, but Sandhagen has the better stamina so if this fight goes deep, he will dominate all aspects of it. Still, it's a 50/50 chance cause Moraes can finish anyone early on. 

I mean I understand why people are favoring Sandhagen here, but I just am not so impressed. I'm going with Moraes.

Marlon Moraes via 1st round KO. 

Co-Main Event: Edson Barboza vs. Makwan Amirkhani

After being KOd by Gaethje, Barboza has had back-to-back razor thin decisions, losing both by split, so finds himself on a 3-fight losing skid despite there being a strong case to be made he won both of those fights. 

Amirkhani is something of a drop in competition and as much as I would like to see him win this one, I think Edson will take care of business here. Amirkhani is still a live dog here, lot of people have been tipping him to get a surprise victory. 

It will pretty much either have to come by top control for two rounds in a tight decision, or via some kind of choke, cause Makwan does not have a lot of power in striking, and he does not have the kind of stamina to chain-wrestle Edson for three rounds. If he has high success rate with his wrestling, I think his stamina might be enough to get two rounds via grappling, but as long as they are striking, Edson will be feasting on him.

Barboza is better striker in my opinion than Shane Burgos, and Burgos already have a beating to Amirkhani. That is the most likely outcome here too. 

Barboza via 3nd round TKO.

Ben Rothwell vs. Marcin Tybura 

These two guys have been middling level heavyweights for a long time but somehow they haven't yet met each other in the Octagon before. Tybura has found himself a nice little two-fight win streak, but that came against somewhat weak opposition in Spivak and Grishin, both of whom could not stop the grappling.

Certainly Tybura won't be taking the big Ben Rothwell down. So it will be mostly a standup affair. In that you have to bet against the guy who even got KOd by pretty much every power puncher he met. I won't bother reviewing much tape for this one, both Rothwell's recent fight against Ovince and Tybura's fight against Grishin are fresh in my mind.

Tybura barely got 225 pound Grishin down, so moving Rothwell who is much bigger won't be easy. Besides Rothwell is much more dangerous in the clinch and will threaten submissions as well. Don't see this going well for Tybura unless Rothwell fades.

Ben Rothwell via 2nd round KO.

Markus Perez vs. Dricus Du Plessis

Perez took a loss against a young prospect Turman last time around, and he welcomes another solid new prospect in Du Plessis into UFC this time around. It would seem Du Plessis is the guy here with far more stoppage power, both in terms of heavy hands and dangerous submissions, having never gone to a decision in his 16-fight career. As for Perez, he does have more high level experience even if he overall has one less fight. 

Might be that Du Plessis' streak of never finishing a fight might end as Perez has never been finished. Perez lacks power but is a capable grappler. Still, I kinda feel like the more fundamental style of Du Plessis will get the job done here, aside the fact that he has more power. He might be the first to finish Perez, but I do think it is more likely to go to the decision. Should be a close fight though.

Du Plessis via UD.

Alan Baudot vs. Tom Aspinall

Aspinall has finished his last four fights in under 80 seconds, and has never in his career seen a third round or even the final minute of the second round. The newcomer Baudot has been KOd once by the powerful but rudimentary Dalcha Lungiambula.

Can't really say much about Aspinall, when he finishes everyone so fast there isn't much recent tape and the fattie he fought last time around didn't really belong in UFC cage.

So there isn't much tape of either and both are powerful guys, but from what I can see Aspinall has better fundamentals, moves better and has better defence. Baudot kinda rushes in, gets wreckless and gets cracked. I guess the point I am trying to make it Baudot relies more on his power as opposed to fighting fundamentally solid, whereas Aspinall starts with fundamentals and power just comes as a natural consequence.

Tom Aspinall via 1st round KO. 

Youssef Zalal vs. Ilia Topuria

So Zalal faces up against Topuria who comes into the fight as a short notice replacement. That should not be a problem though, cause the 8-0 fighter has never seen a fight last longer than 8 minutes anyway. Zalal has never been finished though, so continuing that streak will be a big ask for the newcomer.

Unlike some of the newcomers on this card, there's plenty of tape on Topuria and all of it shows that the impressive record is no fluke - the man has power, good submissions and sound fundamentals everywhere. So he won't be an easy out for Zalal. Still although Topuria has beat some decent guys in regionals and in impressive fashion, Zalal still represents a big step-up in competition.

Although Zalal has never been finished, he does still leave himself exposed at times. His headmovement and footwork are good, making him hard to catch him clean, but I think Topuria still has decent chance to connect something heavy early on.

So even if Topuria is likely to fade during this match, I think he is still a very life dog in this fight. Zalal probably wins on volume if there is no finish, but power advantage is all Topuria here. I would take a stab at Topuria with decent enough odds.

Ilia Topuria via 1st round KO.

Tom Breese vs. KB Bhullar

Lots of 8-0 fighters on this card, Bhullar the UFC newcomer is one of them. He is a champ in small promotion, getting a tough introduction to the UFC against a 6 fight UFC Veteran Breese, whose comeback after a long layoff didn't go according to the plan with the first round TKO loss to Brendan Allen. 

It's unfortunate from our perspective that it was such a fast finish as we really did not get to see much of how Breese's fighting is off the layoff. Getting clinched up and outgrappled by Allen is no shame, does not really tell us if Breese can fight well or not, just tells us that he is clearly worse grappler than Allen. 

It's still more than I have on Bhullar. Sorry, couldn't find any footage of his previous fights, just one clip on Youtube that is 8 years old, so it is worth jack shit. Looking at his record he should be good enough to be on UFC, even if his wins aren't against the highest level competition, they are still experienced guys that he has been mostly putting away.

Whatever I predict is still gonna be a shot in the dark, as Breese definitely is the toughest opponent of his career so far. Still, Bhullar is the bigger man, clearly has stamina as he fought 5 rounds last time around, has a chin and has never been subbed, so how exactly is he going to lose this?

KB Bhullar via UD.

Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Chris Daukaus

Nascimento is unbeaten but this seems like it will be the toughest test of his career to date. Daukaus is not an easy guy to takedown and that is the only place where Nascimento has a definitive advantage, as Daukaus strikes very well, fast, technical combinations and he has very good volume for a big guy.

That's not to say Nascimento is a bad striker either way, but I do see him just being a bit outgunned in the feet and needing to pursue the clinch urgently. Daukaus has some good clinch striking though so Nascimento won't be completely out of danger in there either. 

Either way it seems like Nascimento can't be as content to strike with Daukaus as he was against Mayes last time around. Pushing forward and grabbing the clinch is essential. 

Still, Daukaus has not fought any grappler of the caliber of Nascimento, so while I do think the Brazilian will have to face some adversity, I think he would be capable to expose some weakness in Daukaus' ground game and eventually come up on top.

Nascimento via 3rd round submission.

Impa Kasanganay vs. Joaquin Buckley

Couple of quick turnarounds here too. Joaquin Buckley put on a decent Tyson imitation against Kevin Holland but ultimately was always up against with a much bigger opponent, taking a beating before getting KO'd in the 3rd. Kasanganay on the other hand a win in contender series, quickly turned around to win his UFC debut and is here, ready to fight again for 3rd time in less than two months.

If the size of the opponent was the primary problem for Buckley, Impa Kasanganay is not really any easier opponent than Holland was. Sure, he is not as long, but he is thicker, absolutely ripped and still a guy from bigger weight class than where Buckley fought prior to UFC. Worse yet, Impa is very fast and fundamentally sound in every facet of fighting despite his relative inexperience - exactly the kind of guy that is very tough to beat coming from a size disadvantage.

For all the size difference Buckley at least has one inch in reach over Impa, so that's something to work with. Besides, when a guy who is built like him and puts together as long combos as him, there's always good chance of him scoring a KO. Just don't think it is very likely against Impa. I think either Buckley scores the KO in the 1st, or else this fight follows similar pattern to Impa's fight against Pitolo, where the longer it goes, the more Impa just shuts the fight down and takes over. 

He is the guy with more tools at his disposal, and furthermore Buckley got knocked down twice in a fight just a month ago, it's probably gonna negatively affect his performance today, even if Impa probably isn't as good as Holland is. 

Impa Kasanganay via UD.

Ali AlQaisi vs. Tony Kelley

Two recent newcomers who lost their opening bouts. AlQaisi is decent everywhere, but kinda limited also, however he should be able to perform better in his second fight than first time around, as long as that nose is healed from the damage.

As for Kelley, he had his moments in his debut that ultimately ended in an unanimous decision loss. It was an absolute war whereas AlQaisi's first fight was more technical back and forth. Either way I think Kamaka is better than AlQaisi, and Kelley was able to fend off the wrestling and withstand the striking offence even if he did come a little bit short. 

Kelley is also much longer than AlQaisi's opponent was, so all in all it does seem like Kelley should have the edge here in the striking. AlQaisi throws slower, more looping shots than Kelley's last opponent Kamaka, so Kelley should be able to better avoid those shots and counter them himself. In footwork, Kelley is clearly the better fighter, but when trading in the pocket Kelley is very hittable.

So AlQaisi can definitely make this a tight fight especially if he scores a few takedowns that might win him some close rounds, and score a KO by hitting a shot on the button, but most of the time Kelley will be the one keeping it standing up and landing the more damage. AlQaisi seems to have pretty good chin, so probably we see a decision here.

Tony Kelley via UD.

Giga Chikadze vs. Omar Morales

This is one of the fights from this event that has been generating lot of talk. Omar Morales, the undefeated the 10-0 lightweight, has suddenly decided to go down to featherweight for the first time in his career at ripe age of 34. So, it is no wonder that people have been having their doubts of whether it is a smart move. 

As for what I think... well obviously the guy must have some reason to think he can make the featherweight limit. Either way is welcoming party won't be easy for him, fighting an elite level kickboxer in Giga Chikadze. In MMA, anyone can land the big shot, even against world champ kickboxers, BUT percentages wise, obviously Chikadze will win the striking easily here. 

Morales is of course coming from kickboxing background himself, but not at the same level as Giga. Either way, he is the bigger dude here, and this isn't kickboxing, this is MMA. I just feel Morales has the better overall MMA game, even if he really doesn't pursue takedowns much usually. I mean just for comparison, Giga has 1 submission win and 1 submission loss, whereas Morales has never been subbed but has grabbed 5 submission wins. Now obviously most of them have probably come after hurting the opponent, but either way it tells a story of Morales having spent more time on his grappling.

So how does Morales win this? By walking forward and imposing his power and size on Giga. Giga of course moves and counters well, so that is not so easily done. However, the walking backwards style is exhausting, and Giga isn't exactly powerpuncher, having gone to 3 back-to-back decisions against much smaller men. I think only way Giga is scoring a KO here is if Morales indeed has a terrible cut. 

The fight will probably go deep therefore. Giga is gonna circle and pop shots, Morales will pressure and try to return fire with powershots. I think he would do smart to force clinch once in a while too to avoid hanging at range and to wear Giga down more. That way this will be razor thin fight. Does Giga fade in time to lose 2nd round? I think he will win the first for sure with more accurate striking. 

By the third they will start both to fade, but no matter how damage Morales is, he keeps bringing it. So yeah, I lean on Morales. Giga's defences will wear down, he will get pulled to the ground, grounded and pounded to giving his back or a limb, and submitted.

Omar Morales via 3rd round sub. 

Tracy Cortez vs. Stephanie Egger

Cortez looked pretty good against Vanessa Melo, but then again, who has not looked good against Melo? The only takeaway we really have is that she has to work on her defence, as she was taking some clean shots to the chin from a plodding, slow Melo, which suggests that a better fighter would be able to find the chin a bit too often. Also she did show some decent stamina, with high volume striking in 1st round and persistent working for takedowns in 2nd, but still looked pretty fresh in the 3rd round.

All in all, you can be cautiously optimistic that Cortez can fight well. As for the newcomer Egger, she has not fought a lot, but has a TKO of Mara Romero Borella on her record so that is something. Aside that it's really hard to gauge how good she is as her more recent fight has been, to kindly put it, against cans. 

Reina Miura seems to be the most decent win she has had in last 3 fight, but from the little material available, Egger is absolutely huge in comparison so while skills might have been close there was a big size mismatch.

Still in the tape Egger appears a decent striker who likes to grapple with you and dominate from the top position or go for submissions. It's pretty easy to do against regionals with .500 records though, particularly in MMA. She lost against Alexa Conners in 2016, who beat Agapova, whom Cortez on the other hand beat to earn the UFC contract. MMA math doesn't work, but we don't have much else here to compare the skills of these girls. 

Egger has the size in the match-up, and as said is a pretty strong grappler. So you have to give her at least some chance to win this fight either way, either at countering from range in striking, as Cortez can be defensively dodgy striker and likes to just jump into range, or via ragdolling Cortez in grappling. Not that I think the latter is very likely, Cortez is pretty solid wrestler herself. 

At the same time Cortez is the more proven commodity, but not that proven considering that even her wins against UFC level opposition is at the very bottom of UFC.

So, maybe 60/40 to Tracy in my book.

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Bruno Silva

What I like about these Russian guys coming over to UFC is that there is plenty of tape around, and at decent level competition too, so there is less guesswork about them. Tagir's only loss came against fellow recent UFC signing Zhalgas Zhumagulov, and in that fight Ulanbekov arguably got robbed. 

Tagir is tall for the weight class, fights a rangy style, likes to push for the clinch and attempt the occasional takedown. He has some power but isn't particularly powerful, and is somewhat low volume in his striking.

This could pose some problems against Bruno Silva, who is predominantly a grappler and would probably welcome Ulanbekov taking him down. Still I think Silva might outvolume Ulanbekov on the feet and leg kick the shit out of him, as he likes to stand pretty heavy on that lead foot.

Probably Tagir will though try to clinch and keep it there, and if he can pull that off he can dominate as the much longer fighter. Tagir has reasonably good wrestling, think he might be able to stop most of the attempts Silva has to take this fight down. All in all many ways this fight could go down. Silva is not a bad fighter, losing to someone like Dvorak after a close fight is no shame and Silva had his moments in that one. 

I still feel Tagir is a similar proposition to Dvorak, guy with solid takedown defence, good fundamentals and clinchwork. Which makes me lean towards him winning this as Silva struggled to impose his grappling on Dvorak and got tagged few times pretty hard on the feet. Like I said, Silva might just simply land more as Tagir tends to be a bit plodding, but if Tagir pursues takedowns more that tends to win the rounds even when he loses the striking. He is Khabib's teammate after all so positional dominance is name of the game. I don't think he will be easy for Silva to submit either way.

So yeah, I am about 65/35 for Tagir here. 

Tagir Ulanbekov via UD.