UFC Fight Night 180 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Brian Ortega vs. Chan Sung Jung

Since coming back from his military service, Korean Zombie has been on fire, finishing everyone in the 1st round, except for Yair - and even against him Zombie was cruising to a decision before succumbing to the freakiest of freak KOs.

Ortega on the other hand was also storming though the division, nothing up 6 finishes in a row to face Max Holloway in one of the title fights of the ages. Max showed that he is the featherweight GOAT in that fight, badly beating up Ortega and we have not seen him since. 

It's been nearly 2 years, and for a guy of Ortega's age, still feasibly only approaching his prime, it's a very long time. Probably a good call for his career longevity to have a long break, either way he has kept up his status as one of the top contenders of the division despite the break, but for us it means we don't know if Ortega is gonna show up vastly improved or what. Whoever wins this fight is pretty much guaranteed to get the next title shot. 

What we know of Ortega though is that he left at 2018 very near the elite fighter. Extremely effective submissions combined with great power and amazing chin. Max didn't KO him, it was the doctor who stopped the fight after Ortega absorbed hundreds of shots.

Ortega did have a tough weight cut (well it seems so, I don't think shaving his head was a planned move), which will definitely be a factor her if the fight goes long. 

This is such a tough fight to call cause both are very elite of the elite. Ortega is young and less weathered (aside for that Max fight), but both of them have legendary chins and neither has been subbed, so probably this one will go the distance. I don't think KZ can finish Ortega, he does not have the kind of volume Max had, but he can definitely make Ortega fade towards the end. On the other hand KZ has been hurt and knocked out before, so I give some percentage chance for that to happen. 

The first 3 rounds will be close, probably as the fight goes long KZ will take over. It's pretty much 50/50 for me, with the slight chance of Ortega finish making me lean towards Ortega. 

At those odds, Ortega is the clear play. Brian Ortega via 3rd round TKO.

Co-Main Event: Jessica Andrade vs. Katlyn Chookagian

So after managing to capture the strawweight title purely on power, Andrade has finally stopped killing herself with the cut that must be very difficult and will now face against the undoubtedly #1 contender in flyweight division. This one is a really tough one for me to pick. 

Andrade is all power, very little technique. I do think she will still have big power advantage even having moved to what probably is her natural weight class (I mean she was throwing girls around up at bantamweight back in the day), but when there isn't that much fight IQ or skill combined with that, it's just hard to see it go that far. Even getting a title was more of a fluke, even if as he was tearing through the division even I was predicting her to get the title.

Either way Katlyn is the longer fighter on the feet and good enough grappler to not be in trouble even if she does get taken down. There has been talk of her retiring to start a family though, so one has to wonder if she is mentally checked out. It would be bad place to be when a bulldozer like Andrade is rolling at you. 

Make no mistake, she can hurt anyone. She struggles to score consistently because of her lack of length, but when she does hit, girls get marked up and rocked. Even in the rematch that Rose dominated most of the time, she still ended up badly bloodied up and wobbled a couple of times.

So yeah, I gotta think that Andrade has a chance here, I would pick her as an underdog, even if in all likelihood Chookagian stays at range and gets points victory. Chookagian fought the Shevchenko sisters back to back and there couldn't have been any more contrast in the performances, but it just shows Valentina is elite of the elite, and Antonina is kinda so-so. 

Chookagian is kind of surprisingly sizeable underdog, so makes for a pretty easy pick. Chookagian via UD. 

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Jim Crute

Interesting fight. Bukauskas looked good against Michailidis, unfortunately the fight was stopped prematurely, his opponent was a little dazed but probably not worthy of calling the fight. Either way, Bukauskas moves well for a big guy and hits hard when given the chance.

He is facing another powerful guy in Jim Crute, who is still only 24 but by now something of a UFC veteran after going 3-1 in that time and has fought already two high level guys in Cirkunov and Oleksiejczuk. Especially in the last fight Crute's game showed evolution from being purely a powerful striker into a more complete martial artist. 

It's 50/50 on the feet, Bukauskas hits hard and moves well, and is the rangier guy, but unless he catches Crute with something big, Crute will be finding the better shots or if he gets outgunned on the feet, seek for the takedowns and win via that way.

Hard to see it going to the decision with two so powerful guys. 

Was gonna pick Crute, but at those odds, Bukauskas via 1st round KO is worth a shot.

Thomas Almeida vs. Jonathan Martinez

Almeida was so hyped back in 2015, it's been kinda sad seeing him washing out. I mean in terms of skill, Almeida is still a very high level fighter, but it is obvious he does not have much of a chin to work with.

Jonathan Martinez seems to be a lower level fighter, fighting lesser competition in UFC with 3-2 record, but still he is solid everywhere and has some power, one gotta wonder if Almeida would change up his approach to try to limit the possibility of getting clipped. 

Skill-for-skill, Almeida is the better fighter here, you just can't pick him with any reliability against anyone with any power. Martinez isn't exactly huge power shot guy, but he still has 7 KOs in his career and a very good chance here to add to that total if he just lands on the button.

It's all a long-winded way to say Almeida will be winning the fight for the most part, but one has to doubt if he can go through 15 minute fight without getting clipped at some point. Worth taking a stab if the odds are good enough, but if this is close to even money, I will go for Martinez.

Jonathan Martinez via 3rd round TKO.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Guram Kutateladze

As soon as I saw Gamrot had a beautiful 17-0 record, I went to fightmatrix to check where does it land him in terms of undefeated fighters, and sure enough, he is a guy with tied 5th most wins as an undefeated fighter. That undefeated record is gonna be put to the test immediately against another newcomer in Guram Kutateladze, Khamzat's training partner.

Guram seems pretty solid everywhere, but definitely not as dominant grappler as Khamzat is. He carries decent power, having scored 7 KOs in his 11 wins, so it's obvious he prefers to scrap on the feet, but can also sprinkle in takedowns in there. All in all a solid, modern mixed martial artist. 

Looks like he is in for a bad time against highly-touted Gamrot, who is excellent grappler combined with decent striking and relentless offensive wrestling. Kinda like Khamzat actually, but in Kutateladze's tape I saw him being down on his back too much and I think he pays for it. Obviously Guram has a chance to win this in the stand-up, but in all likelihood Gamrot chain-wrestles his way to a victory here.

Either way, I can see successful UFC career's for both of these guys, two tough debutants for sure.

Gamrot via UD.

Gillian Robertson vs. Poliana Botelho

Great, low-level women's MMA. I'm so excited. "But man, these girls are very high up in contention", well yeah... they are still low-level cause women's divisions are so thin.

Anyway, at least both of these girls are coming off of wins and whoever wins this time around, will have a lot of momentum going ahead. Robertson is a very straight-forward fighter to predict, her striking is rudimentary and only there to facilitate the takedown attempts, she closes the distance, takes you down and then works towards submissions while keeping the top control. 

So the way to beat her is to keep the fight on the feet and punish her with striking like Maycee Barber did, or outgrapple her like Mayra Silva did - but that was already couple of years ago so it's getting harder and harder to do as Robertson improves. 

As Botelho has never won by submission, she probably won't be outgrappling Robertson here, so the question is can she keep the fight on the feet to score the 7th KO win of his career? Botelho beat Lauren Mueller last time around, but Mueller isn't very good so it doesn't tell us much - more relevant is grappling loss against Cynthia Calvillo, which very much suggests that she can't deal with high level grapplers.

I would predict early on the fight will be a little bit wild. Robertson will push towards her and eat some shots, with some potential of being KOd, but ultimately drags her down, probably via catching one of those huge kicks Botelho throws.

Botelho was improved in the Mueller fight, but still showed bad tendencies - chin up in the air, all too willing to clinch, and as a result fading. As clinching up and grappling is Robertson's only way to victory here, she would be smart to avoid that.

I do think Botelho looked strong though in that last fight and might be able to do a better job to keep this standing than against Calvillo, so she has a chance here, but in all likelihood Robertson's grappling wears on her by the end of the fight. Either way this probably will be pretty crushing showing by whoever imposes their game on the other.

Small shot on Robertson via UD.

Claudio Silva vs. James Krause

This is a fight that has been generating some talking in the section of Twitterverse that I follow. Consensus seems to be that Silva will probably be winning the fight, then gas, leading to a close decision. Well, I gotta do my own preview now, let's see if I see it differently than those guys.

Well even before watching anything, you have to see Silva as a very high level fighter. The guy has only lost once in his career, in his pro debut in 2007, and has even split decision win over Leon Edwards. So yeah gotta say I already lean towards Silva winning this, he should be able to dominate this fight. On the feet it can possibly be close, and Krause isn't a bad grappler, but Silva is absolute specialist there and will dominate if he can impose his grappling. 

So I agree with the general consensus. Either Silva wins this with an early sub like most of his fights, or gets 29-28 after fading towards the end. There is a little questionmark about Silva being 38, it looks like he has been elite fighter in the division for years but just hardly fights and his prime is pretty much over. Still, you can't expect him to just get old overnight, particularly with a grappling fighting style.

Does Krause has any chance? Well, he can stay fleet-footed and try to touch Silva up from distance to avoid the grappling situations. He can win close rounds like that, especially if he does well catching Silva coming in. He does not have much KO power though, so he would essentially have to point fight.

Claudio Silva via 2nd round submission.

Jun Yong Park vs. John Phillips

So John Phillips still gets another chance to show his stuff in the UFC after being thoroughly humiliated by Chimaev. Let's be honest, Phillips is a terrible fighter, just a brawler who hits hard but has very little in way of technique. At least Park is someone he might have some success with, as he is not a wrestler that is on the level of Khamzat. 

I mean you gotta wonder how does Phillips mentally react to taking such a bad beating. Some guys might come back more determined than ever, but most of them would probably be even more timid the next time they fight. With Phillips' style, you cannot afford to be timid.

Either way, even if we see the best ever Phillips here, he will be up against it against Park. I don't rate Park as astonishingly good fighter either, but he is solid, and he did beat Barriault last time around, which is a decent result for him. 

While Park does not have Chimaev's wrestling, he does have some skill there and actually dominated Barriault at times with similar positions as Chimaev used on Phillips. Barriault for sure is better than Phillips. All in all Park is solid enough everywhere, so he will stay out of danger on the feet (he has never been KOd), then sprinkle in some takedowns and clinchwork to cruise to victory. Think Phillips might even get finished again.

Park via 3rd round submission.

Jamie Mullarkey vs. Fares Ziam

Ziam did not really lose last time around, more just got nullified and grinded down by Madge who kept grabbing hold of him through the fight and eventually managed just enough positional dominance to squeak into a decision victory. Ziam was on the defensive the whole fight and could not really impose any striking through the fight.

For Mullarkey, this is more of the same after facing a tough kickboxer in his debut. Riddell is at a whole another level though, and Mullarkey gutted it out to a really brutal war, managing to takedown and clinch up with Riddell a lot. You kinda expect something similar here, Ziam simply isn't good at avoiding those clinch situations, and Mullarkey can dominate this fight in those.

Jamie Mullarkey via UD. 

Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs. Maxim Grishin

Neither looked great last time around, but you would have to be crazy to be backing Antigulov in 2020. I don't know what happened to him, perhaps he never was very good to begin with, but after taking 3 back-to-back 1st round finishes, he is just a long-odds play. At least Grishin didn't look absolutely horrible and went three rounds against much bigger Tybura. It was still frustrating to see, but it wasn't like he was taken down at willl, he was on the defensive and defended most of the offense until he faded.

So you gotta trust on him to find the powershots here on the feet and keep Antigulov's finishing streak alive, hopefully sending him out of the UFC with a blast. Let's be fair though. Antigulov's grappling is still a problem for anyone, and although he has not won a fight since 2017, he has at least faced murderer's row in the meantime, even Craig that he lost to last time around has improved steadily and is always a dangerous grappler. 

Still, Grishin has not been submitted since 2011 and just fought against a much bigger guy, defending takedowns without too much problems. So it seems pretty clear he can keep it standing, and in that department that 7.5 inches of reach he has over Antigulov is a big, big problem.

Maxim Grishin via UD.

Mark Striegl vs. Said Nurmagomedov

Said might be the least imposing fighter named Nurmagomedov, but either way he will be a rough outing here for Striegl, whose name immediately sounded familiar to me, and sure enough I've probably seen the Filipino veteran at some point in One FC. Striegl's record 18-2 seems pretty solid, but it's mostly in Asian regional scene not fighting the highest level opposition, solid guys but obviously not the level of competition you face in UFC. 

Striegl has a pretty wooden stand-up, but can hurt you. Still he is more likely to get hurt than vice versa. He has a natural instinct to go for the grappling, which he is alright at, but struggles to generally maintain top control. 

The name Nurmagomedov suggests great wrestling, but Said is actually more of an outside striker, and should absolutely demolish Striegl in that part of the fight. So actually here Striegl should go for the grappling. I don't think he has good enough grappling though to consistently keep Said down and he certainly does not put enough pace to gas out Said, so it's tough to see him with more than a slim chance of winning.

So yeah, Striegl, if he can fight this entirely at his strengths, which is plodding boxing match with momentary explosions of wrestling... he might be able to make it competitive. But any other kind of fight and Nurmagomedov will run away with the numbers. Striegl obviously has been tough to finish in his career, and Said isn't the biggest power guy, so probably it will still see a decision.

Said via UD.