UFC Fight Night 181 Preview & Predictions

It's been a busy week in terms of fights. There was the Bellator, then the excellent ONE FC card, and now I gotta pull an all-nighter watching tape for the weekend's UFC fight? Well, let's get right into it.

Main Event: Uriah Hall vs. Anderson Silva

Hopefully this will be a spectacular striking showcase. Anderson is fucking 45 years old... which is a bad sign. Then again he is the kind of finesse striker who might be able to have that kind of fighting lifespan, as he has not been in big wars or relied so much on speed, power and endurance. 

Still, he has taken damage, particularly in that last fight against Cannonier. Hall does not hit so hard, but one has to wonder about reflexes of guy of that age, and chin of guy that age. Since 2013, in 8 fights, Silva has only gotten 1 win on his record. 

At least before the Cannonier fight, Silva had not been finished in 5 fights. Then again, Izzy probably respected him too much to really go for the KO.

Let's be honest though, it's not like Uriah Hall is someone who strikes fear into the hearts of his opponents. He had a lot of potential, but never quite developed into the great fighter we thought he would become. At 36, he probably is well past his prime as well. He has also been on the shelf for a year after narrowly beating Antonio Carlos Jr (decent win in and of itself). 

How is Silva gonna win this though? In his prime, he would have been much the better striker, but now in his 40s he was soundly outstruck by even Cannonier. Like let's not mince any words here, Cannonier was well ahead in that fight even before Silva's foot disintegrated. I think if he can do that, so can Uriah.

Uriah usually loses to guys who pressure him relentlessly. Silva won't just be walking him down, so he has room to work his kicking techniques. Silva WAS a good kicker as well, and to be fair did show some fast kicks against Cannonier, but he simply can't put in the volume that the 10 years younger guy can output. 

So yeah, I expect this to be technical, albeit somewhat slow-paced kickboxing match. Hopefully Silva will have his moments, but likely he ends up losing at least two rounds narrowly simply cause Uriah throws more. Worst case scenario is that Hall lands something solid and finishes it early. 

Uriah Hall via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Bryce Mitchell vs. Andre Fili

Fili has slowly developed into one of the best fighters in featherweight division. He is extremely well-rounded, and in my opinion overall much better fighter than Bryce Mitchell. However, Mitchell put everyone on notice with that grappling masterclass against Rosa. It looks like there is very few fighters in UFC that can match him on the ground. Fili is a very good grappler, but I still expect him to be in trouble if this fight hits the mat.

Fili has very strong base though, moves very well and is the much better striker. So I expect him to counter his way to win. This really is the kind of fight that can go anyway. Fili has a real chance to put a real beating on Mitchell, but he might also just win a round, then start to lose a little bit of sharpness and be forced into grappling more with latter rounds being close. It's also possible that Mitchell just can close the distance consistently and make it into a grappling match, in which case UD or submission win for him are both very possible outcomes. 

It's really hard to keep the fight in range against a guy who is willing to just pursue you and is as fast as Michell is. It is imperative that Fili starts hurting Mitchell early to deter some of that forward pressure. Mitchell looks like he is very hittable, but he probably would not mind if you put one on his chin, if he can just grab hold of you.

All in all still I think Fili probably takes it, as this is a huge step-up for Mitchell. Either way if Mitchell is big dog, he is very playable here.

Andre Fili via UD

Confidence in winner: 3 

Maurice Greene vs. Greg Hardy

Greg Hardy's legend continues. From getting DQ'd in his UFC debut, to losing a win because of inhalator, and now to making history as first ever heavyweight to miss weight. 

It's a mystery why he did miss the weight, cause so far during his UFC career he has shown steady progression, and athlete of that level ought to be disciplined about training. 

Either way, Greene squeaked past Villante last time around, which doesn't make one confident at all he could deal with the power Hardy brings to the table. Could Hardy be out of shape and gas out? I guess, but that's pretty much the only chance Greene has here. Which I guess is enough for me to bet on him, cause all things considered Hardy is still very green fighter, so that combined with the weight miss puts enough uncertainty in the air that we go for a surprise here.

I think the most likely outcome is that Hardy puts his hands on Greene, drops him and TKOs him, but Greene can keep this an outside striking match and just tightly edge him out in a decision. I mean to be fair to Greene, as terrible as that Villante performance was, at least the guy has pretty good kicks and movement for a heavyweight. He also has same reach as Hardy, so it's not an impossible situation here.

Maurice Greene via SD.

Confidence in winner: 2

Bobby Green vs. Thiago Moises

This is a great fight cause it's similar to Moises' last fight. Bobby Green is basically better version of Johnson, and I don't expect him to throw away lead if he gets one. Johnson dominated Moises in the 1st round, so I expect Green continue his flawless 2020 with another UD. 

Yeah, that is something you can definitely expect from this fight. Since getting KO'd by Poirier in 2016, Green has had 8 decisions straight. 

Moises has good grappling, but Green has not been subbed since 2009. He is hard to take down and just too fundamentally solid to get caught into anything. This could be ugly if Moises can't impose any grappling on him.

Well, there is also the kicks. I know I have been singing Green's praises, but it was only a year ago when he lost to Trinaldo thanks to letting the fight drift by in a pedestrian performance. I don't think he can just sit at range in this fight and go for a low-volume approach, he does need to keep pressure on Moises to make sure he doesn't get kicked into a close decision loss. In boxing range, this will be one sided, and I think Green can keep Moises off him in grappling. 

Bobby Green via UD.

Confidence in winner: 4

Chris Gruetzemacher vs. Alexander Hernandez

Alex Hernandez looked like a very bright prospect when he first entered UFC. The guy is absolutely yoked and finished Dariush in his debut. UFC kept throwing him to the deep end and predictably going has been tough for him since. Underwhelming wins against Trinaldo and Aubin-Mercier were sandwiched between losses against Dober and Cerrone. 

I kinda hate those match-ups to be honest, cause Hernandez really has potential to go far, but getting matched up against some of the elite guys in the division has had him TKOd twice which could affect his career. This match-up makes much more sense. Gruetzemacher is barely good enough to be in UFC, but he is tough and has a grinding style. Good chance for Hernandez to rack up some experience.

Gritz has not fought in two years and his only reputable UFC win came against completely shot Joe Lauzon, so realistically this should be a complete mismatch. That's not to say Hernandez is all there yet as a fighter, however he should just be way too physical here and either get a fast finish or comfortably dominate to a decision. Only way Gruetzemacher wins is the way he always wins - by forcing you into a high-pace, grinding fight where you just can't keep up with his excellent conditioning. His excellent chin and stamina is what always gives him some chance, but it's really hard to imagine him forcing high volume of striking on Hernandez without him getting KOd in the process. Possible, but not likely.

Hernandez has size, speed and youth on his side here and Gritz gets hit too much. I expect the odds to be kinda lopsided though, so Hernandez isn't necessarily great play here.

Hernandez via 2nd round TKO.

Confidence in winner: 3

Adrian Yanez vs. Victor Rodriguez

Yanez' contender performance was pretty much flawless, and his record looks tremendous for a UFC newcomer. He has 3 losses, but the two most recent ones were split decisions against guys who are already in UFC. Pretty safe to say he is good enough to be here. 

Rodriguez is a very inexperienced fighter, only 4-2 record, has beaten at least solid regionals, but either way he is a southpaw powerpuncher, with not so great striking defence. He got his bell rung multiple times in his last fight where he outendured the other guy to get the second round KO, and he already has a KO loss in his record.

That is a dangerous proposition against Yanez, who strikes very sharply and accurately. I think he will be finding Rodriguez' chin a bit too many times here and I think KO is a very likely outcome. Either way Yanez probably moves too well to get caught by any of the power coming back, and it would seem Yanez might have grappling advantage as well.

Adrian Yanez via 2nd round KO.

Confidence in winner: 4

Sean Strickland vs. Jack Marshman

In hindsight, Strickland's record looks really solid. Career losses only against current champ, Zalewski Dos Santos and Ponzinibbio. Strickland could realistically be ranked much higher than he is. With that in mind, Marsman should be such a low level of competition that this is a one-sided match-up. Obviously things are never that simple though.

Marshman is 3-4 in UFC, heavy-handed guy, but a bit rudimentary and he got KOd by Edmund's boy last time. All in all the guy has already taken 4 KO losses, so durability might become bit of an issue for him, though he is tough obviously. At least he has taken plenty of time off after that KO, smart thing all things considered.

Speaking of long lay-offs, Strickland has not fought in over two years. Ring rust might become an issue, but as I said, Marshman should be so much lower level of opposition, that he should still get the job done. I mean we are talking about a guy who went to split decision with John Phillips. You know, THE John Phillips. The worst middleweight in UFC, the guy who made Khamzat a star and had the Korean guy land the record number of GnP on him... but that's me going off a tangent.

Marshman has a chance, Strickland is definitely very hittable, but I think if Marshman doesn't get him out of there fast Strickland will keep walking him down and eventually win on volume. I don't know how willing grappler Strickland could be, but I think it's safe to say most guys would also have advantage against Marshman should they choose to grapple.

Sean Strickland via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Cole Williams vs. Jason Witt

That Claudio Silva loss did not age well for Williams, but it's not a good look to get KO'd by Sato fast either, like Witt did. At least Witt has the excuse of being on short notice. 

With that couple of minutes against Silva, we really did not learn a lot from Williams, so I am mostly going by impression, and that isn't great. His physique doesn't look great, he is a bit up in age, he got soundly outstruck while standing and then obviously submitted in grappling. Latter can be forgiven against Silva, but the former is not a good look. 

Witt at least looks like a proper welterweight fighter, but him being a bit chinny makes me uncomfortable to pick him either. I do think he is probably the faster striker and could also possibly outgrapple Williams, but yeah, can't be picking either here with any confidence. 

Still, Williams has really not fought lot of high level competition and should be post his prime already, whereas Witt should be able to do better on his second UFC outing.

Jason Witt via 3rd round submission.

Confidence in winner: 2

Dustin Jacoby vs. Justin Ledet

Justin Ledet came to UFC as an undefeated fighter, and started off pretty strong as well by winning three straight. Since then, he has hit a rough patch of three successive losses and through that period shown very little progression to his game. 

As for Jacoby, his career peak so far has been short stint in Bellator in 2014-15, where he got finished twice. Five years has passed since that, and he did not fight in a while, but has been 2-0 since his return in 2019, including a win this year in the Contender series.

They are same age, but obviously very different career trajectories. I would also say they both are kinda limited fighters, but Ledet is the more limited one of the two - he has good boxing, but that is pretty much it. As for Jacoby, he is a solid striker all around, sharp with fast kicks as well. He also has more volume than Ledet, which I would think is what makes the difference.

Ledet kinda didn't show up against Camur. He looked like he had enough skill to perhaps beat Camur, but he just let the fight drift by while just throwing the occasional counter. I don't think Jacoby is that much better though that he would finish Ledet, but as long as he paces himself he should comfortably win every round here. The only x factor really is grappling, Jacoby isn't that hard to take down, but we have never really seen sustained wrestling attack from Ledet so I would be surprised if that happened now.

Jacoby via UD.

Confidence in winner: 4

Miles Johns vs. Kevin Natividad

I think this is a more competitive debut matchup for Natividad than Kelleher, who he was originally slated to face, would have been. I do still rate Johns as probably the slightly better fighter, but there is questionmarks about how a fighter will look after taking the first KO loss of his career, or in Johns' case, first loss at all. 

While I say Johns is better, he does have very low output, so that combined with the fact he might have a knock on confidence and physical after effects makes me all in all lean towards Natividad. 

Johns has couple of avenues to win here. Obviously one is a finish, either by takedown and working submissions or one of his huge power punches. Pretty low odds for both. Natividad will win most rounds just on volume, but Johns probably has enough in him to win two rounds off of takedowns if he can get them. Again don't think it is very highly likely, but either way this is gonna be a close decision that probably goes 29-28 to someone. 

Kevin Natividad via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3