UFC on ESPN 16 Post-Fight Analysis

 Name value was lacking on the card this time around, and the best fights were early on. It wasn't great in main card aside few good moments, but any event where I don't lose isn't too bad. Let's dissect the fights a bit as usual.

Main Card

In the main event I nailed the prediction perfectly. Holly showed that she is still a world class kickboxer (as far as females go anyway), comfortably staying on top of Aldana in striking, and also showing she is a complete mixed martial artist my mixing in some clinchwork and grappling where she was dominant. 

Aldana was outmatched everywhere and didn't win a single round or a single facet of fighting. There is a big gulf in class between the very top of women's bantamweights and the rest of the pack when even declining Holm can put such dominant performance in.

Co-Main wasn't too bad, but there wasn't much expectation in the first place. At least De Castro and Felipe slugged it out pretty hard until they started to be pretty gassed in the third round. Not a masterpiece of skillful fighting, but Felipe showed up improved over his debut and clearly won the decision.

Germaine De Randamie's fight with Julianna Pena showed how big of an advantage being a grappler is in this sport. De Randamie overall the far superior fighter, physically bigger and more experienced, but being able to take the fight down and keep it there is such a force multiplier that Pena had the fight hanging on the balance in the third after each fighter winning a round. Then the unlikely happened, with the Muay Thai fighter grabbing hold of the tight guillotine and putting Pena completely out cold. That's one way to avoid a close decision - one of the better moments of the night even if the fight overall wasn't fireworks.

Kyler Phillips might not be the bigger power guy, but when there is as wide of a skill disparity as there was against Cameron Else, a KO is almost inevitability. Else clearly didn't wanna be in there any more after taking a beating in the first round and basically gave up a takedown and dominant position on the ground so that Kyler could grab the TKO victory. Good job but only what was expected of him, Else has no business really fighting in the UFC. 

Dusko Todorovic started off the main card with a beautiful performance against another guy who really doesn't belong in UFC in Dequan Townsend. Dusko dominated the whole 8 minutes that the fight lasted before the KO. The loss leaves Townsend on a 4 fight losing streak. You'd think that by your fourth fight in the UFC you'd figure to learn some takedown defence or about working your way back up, but nah, I guess that would make too much sense. 

Prelims

Carlos Condit looked good against Court McGee, showing that his recent losing streak had more to do with fighting high level opponents than him having lost much of a step. Obviously he is not in his prime any more, but can still outstrike a lot of guys. He dropped McGee in the first, which probably made him more hesitant to really pressure Condit, but either way it was strange to not see McGee try a more wrestling based approach considering it has worked so well against Condit in his previous fights. 

I said I would have to have Culibao under-estimated for him to have a chance against Jourdain, and as usual that was the case, I DID have Culibao under-estimated. He didn't need to pursue a grappling-heavy attack as he had Jourdain hurt a couple of times with his striking. In the end Jourdain pulled it together enough to muster up a strange scorecard that resulted in a split draw. Draw is a fair result, but one judge had it 30-27 Jourdain and I can guarantee he did not win every round of that fight.

The fight between Imavov and Williams was a brutal war. Williams started off strong, landing some heavy shots but taking some of his own from Imavov, who seemed to struggle initially with the offense that was coming, but as Williams slowed down, he started to pull away with striking, landing his own strikes and then gliding away from counters. 

He could not close the show as the damage on both sides in a high pace fight slowed them both down, but in the end Imavov was clear winner. Either way both guys showed a lot of good promise, should be a couple of fun fighters for the UFC going forward.

Loma Lookbonmee put on a clinch clinic against Jinh Yu Frey, who just couldn't really get much going until a 3rd round takedown, which was too little too late. It does seem Loma is hopelessly undersized to make much of a run in UFC, but she can feast on these lower level girls when they can't stop her clinchwork. 

I figured Heili Alateng would be slightly worse than Casey Kenney everywhere, but we did not really see what was the case in wrestling. However as far as striking goes, it wasn't "slightly" at all - Kenney was absolutely dominant and particularly his bodykicks made mincemeat of Alateng's side. 

Jessin Ayari was promptly knocked out by Luigi Vendramini, who showed that his only problem against Dos Santos in his UFC debut was just down to being undersized and nothing more. He showed he belongs to this level of fighting. For Ayari it's a major setback and he might see himself being cut for this.

My picks

I got 6 out of 10 right after the draw fight doesn't count for the totals. Ended up breaking even pretty much exactly. My best bet was clear, the biggest bet of the night with Holm at almost even money. It's rare you get someone who dominates so thoroughly at that kind of odds, so gotta be happy about it. 

Worst bet... well I got 4 wrong again, so there's lot to pick from. I think Alateng pick was pretty bad, but at least there were the odds to make it not so bad, and De Carlos in the co-main turned out to be much worse than I expected. Still I lean towards the first bet of the night, Ayari being the worst cause on some level I felt he wasn't that great but I still bet on him. 

On the other hand missing out on getting Condit as underdog seems pretty bad mistake as well in hindsight considering how easily he dominated McGee. Hindsight is always 20/20, but feel like that's one that could have been called beforehand, it was a big drop off in competition. 

In terms of scoring (winning or losing) it ends up being a neutral night but I do feel much better about my predictions this time. The fights I got right I called exactly right for the most part, and where I went wrong was down to being sloppy and lacking attention to detail, not some fundamental misunderstanding of how fighting works.

Next weekend's event is much better than this one was, though that isn't saying much. Maybe there will be some good value, certainly hoping so. Until next time, see ya.