UFC on ESPN 16 Preview & Predictions

 

Main Event: Holly Holm vs. Irene Aldana

If anything, Holly Holm is a smart fighter. Everyone expected her to stay outside against Pennington, but instead she turned the fight into a clinchfest and got a smooth decision that way. Holly has rounded out her game well, but when a former kickboxer doesn't wanna strike, is it a sign of her perhaps realizing she is losing a little bit of speed?

As for Aldana, she has had so far pretty unremarkable career, but had her real breakout performance when she KOd Ketlen Vieira in the first round. Still, it's hard to imagine her repeating the KO performance against Holm here. Holm fights so smart and seems the better clincher of the two. Aldana's strength has been her rangy boxing, but Holm is a world champ level kickboxer herself and even if my suspicion of Holm slowing down is correct, it still doesn't mean that she is going to get dominated in striking.

Even so I think Holm can take over this fight in a similar fashion as she did against Pennington. That being said, I don't think Aldana is going to accept the clinch positions as willingly as Pennington did. Still, the fact Holm is intelligent fighter and extremely experienced in these spots makes me lean towards her having this.

Holly Holm via UD.

Co-Main Event: Yorgan De Castro vs. Carlos Felipe

Seriously? This is our co-main? The guy who lost to Greg Hardy vs. The guy who lost to Sergey Fucking Spivac. Well, if I put it to that simple terms, its clear De Castro should have this. Let's go a little bit deeper into it though despite this being such a weak matchup.

To be fair, Greg Hardy was massive compared to De Castro and also looked good in the first round. The latter two rounds were kinda two guys staring at each other. Either way Hardy was damaged a bit by end even if he got all three rounds in that fight.

As for Felipe, the decision against Spivac was closer, but Felipe was still technically outmatched in that fight. 

Actually this reminds me a bit of De Castro's debut in UFC where he fought Justin Tafa. Similarly to Felipe, Tafa is a powerful puncher who had a little bit sloppy technique.

De Castro's small size for a heavyweight won't be big problem here, and he is technically the better fighter. Of course anything might happen when big guys square off, but...

Yorgan De Castro via UD.

Germaine De Randamie vs. Julianna Pena

De Randamie has not fought since her title shot, in which she really put Amanda Nunes to the test. She had Amanda hurt a bunch of times, but could not stop the takedowns. Setup in this match is pretty similar, she is far superior striker, but Pena has a way to win this essentially if she can just score two takedowns. The longer it stays standing, the more damage Pena will sponge up though.

Pena is all in all far inferior and far less battle tested fighter, but GDR's lack of wrestling defense still gives her a chance. Still all in all I would have to see De Randamie as favorite here, even if Pena's grappling is better.

GDR via 3rd round TKO.

Kyler Phillips vs. Cameron Else

Cameron Else is on an impressive six fight first round finish streak. I mean it looks impressive until you see the 3-15 and 0-1 records of most guys he KOd/subbed. Kyler Phillips is a legit UFC level guy, much better than the guys Else has lost to. 

Either way Else doesn't have much of a grappling to put on Phillips, and Phillips is excellent striker, don't think this goes the distance.

Phillips via 2nd round KO.

Dequan Townsend vs. Dusko Todorovic

Townsend is awful, but I guess I can't leave the preview at just that. Obviously Dequan is a big powerful dude, but that's about where his good qualities end. He has low output striking, not very good footwork, and his wrestling defence is pretty much nonexistent. So people lay on him for decisions. 

Todorovic is young, tough and rolls well with punches, it would be very hard to connect hard on him which is Townsend's only chance. So Todorovic will slip punches, grab hold of Townsend and lean on him for a decision like everyone does, if he does not connect with something hard for a KO before that.

Todorovic via UD.

Carlos Condit vs. Court McGee

This could be a depressing fight. Well no, just the fact that this fight exists alone is a depressing fact. Just the fact that Condit has declined so far that one has to consider even real possibility of also declined Court McGee beating him is very depressing. Condit was once well worthy of his moniker Natural Born Killer, but no one has feared Condit in a while any more. 2-8 in his last 10 with 5 losses in a row, Condit definitely has no business in there with top level fighters. 

Worse yet, Condit has been finished 3 times in his last four fights. At least they were submissions but still does not bode well for him. As for McGee, his record is also rough reading, as he has lost four of his last five fights, but he has been largely competitive, making it to decision now six times in a row. Last time around McGee fought a close fight against Sean Brady, and although he is still relatively unknown prospect, I would say Brady would beat the brakes off of current Condit. 

McGee is slightly worse though which gives Condit some hope here. So what exactly has been the problem for Condit? Well, aside for facing high level grapplers, not much except that he can't stop a takedown to save his life. This worked for him in the past cause being dangerous off your back was enough to deter people from taking you down, but the game has evolved and everyone being better at defending submissions makes offense off your back a small percentage move. 

Physically Condit still seems sharp enough and he isn't getting knocked out left and right, he just lacks the wrestling it takes to be high level fighter in 2020. Odds are he has been working on that part of his game, but at 36 with some injuries it's unlikely he is gonna be able to fully address it. So the question is whether McGee is strong enough wrestler to attack Condit's weakness directly. For sure he will put nonstop pressure and crowd Condit so that Condit can't impose his striking freely on him.

So yeah, although McGee is such a big drop in competition that Condit should perform competitively, his actual chances of winning are somewhat slim. I see McGee pressuring, taking some shots but being able to pin Condit on fence and perhaps just keep it there aside for grabbing some late takedowns to win rounds without risking Condit doing anything off his back. Condit has some chance of KO or submission, but given how McGee's chin has been holding up, it would take a very good connection for that to happen.

McGee via UD.

Charles Jourdain vs. Josh Culibao

Jourdain had a very high level fight with Fili. Although he ultimately lost, he had his moments, it was a split decision and he showed good defence and offence. His stock has definitely risen and I for sure underestimated the guy before - he is a legit top level guy.

As for Culibao, I would need to underestimate him for him to have a decent chance here. He was always gonna have tough time against much bigger Turner on his short notice debut, so he should do much better in this fight. Just don't think that will be enough against the more proven commodity in Jourdain. Still, guess Culibao could make the fight into a more of a grappling affair, but even Fili couldn't keep Jourdain down very long.

Charles Jourdain via 2nd round KO. 

Jordan Williams vs. Nassourdine Imavov

Two UFC newcomers, one who makes a very quick turnaround after fighting on Contender just couple of weeks ago. 

Obviously Williams is fighting severely undersized for most of his career because of his diabetes, so he is tough and used to fighting bigger guys than Imavov. Either way he has already taken a couple of KO losses and is very hittable. On the other hand he does hit hard as his high KO rate suggests. 

Imavov is not a huge guy for the division, he has good, relaxed and evasive striking but not as much power and I am not entirely convinced in his grappling. Either way he has never been KOd and I am not sure if Williams could impose some kind of grappling heavy attack on him, so I think he runs away on points in this one. 

Imavov via UD.

Jinh Yu Frey vs. Loma Lookbonmee

Everyone knows I love this borderline-UFC-level women's MMA. Well, as far as unknown women's strawweights go, this is not a bad fight, we got a former Invicta champ going against highly-touted but probably undersized Tiger Muay Thai fighter. Both lost their last fight, but Loma lost against one of the top fighters of the division in Angela Hill, whereas Frey lost against less known competition. 

It's still bit of good matchmaking with two girls on the smaller side squaring off. Loma was very competitive with Hill in their last fight. Sure, she probably lost every round, but she wasn't completely outgunned despite being physically overmatched against much more experienced fighter. She fights a very traditional Thai style so for the first ever Thai in UFC, there couldn't have been a better choice. 

Anyway her clinch and kicks are tremendous, and that is the range this fight will be mostly contested in. Frey has the reach and probably is the better boxer and grappler, but Loma has good balance to keep this on the feet and can makeup for the lack of reach with kicks. I still expect a very close stand-up battle, but you gotta favor the Muay Thai girl in that, especially with Frey being up there in age already.

Loma via UD.

Casey Kenney vs. Heili Alateng

A very competitive fight. I do think Kenney is probably better in key positions like clinch and grappling, but Alateng has very good wrestling as well and should be able to stop most grappling offense coming his way. Although he is hittable on the feet, he is also very sharp and can take a shot so I think he will have his moments in striking. 

So it's really hard to figure out a winner here. I do give Kenney a slight edge, both on the feet, in wrestling and in terms of frame, but it's small margins here. Either way if Alateng is gonna win this, he probably will have to do it in similar fashion he did it against Benoit, by getting a close decision.

Gonna go with the surprise, Alateng via SD.

Jessin Ayari vs. Luigi Vendramini

I really didn't find much tape around of Vendramini, he came to UFC as undefeated prospect who had not really fought anyone of note, and ended up kinda thrown into the deep end against Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos, with predictable result of him getting spectacularly finished. He could show up much improved into this fight, which would give him a decent chance against Ayari who is really a lower-end fighter as far as lightweights go. 

Although Ayari has lost twice in a row, he was competitive in his last fight and in hindsight making it through 15 minutes with Darren Till looks even better, but he still seems a little limited all-in all. Again he could show up much improved and put on a really good showing here as well, for he has a great frame for the lightweight division. Definitely he is tougher than the competition Vendramini has fought aside Dos Santos.

Oh and Vendramini gets no points for originality in his nickname...

Jessin Ayari with a 3rd round TKO.