UFC 255 Post-Fight Analysis

From betting standpoint, this was a very difficult event and lot of guys such a myself got absolutely destroyed. From entertainment perspective... Eh, it was so so, some good fights but lot of lulls in between.

Main Card

I said in Twitter that Perez was just a can for Figueiredo to crush, but rationally I can't possibly think that. Yet it's kinda the feeling you are left with for how easy it was in the end. Well, guess it never is as easy as it looks. Perez didn't like what was going on in the striking so he went for the takedown and after some transitions, Figueiredo snatched up the neck and squeezed with everything he got. Perez was so close to getting out, but just couldn't get that extra inch out and had to tap. 

Valentina had a pretty stale fight with Jennifer Maia, despite Maia managing to look much more competitive than anyone expected. That's how Valentina's fights tend to be, as dominant she is, she tends to just edge decisions if she doesn't absolutely kill her opponent.

There has been doubts about Perry's training and mind, and usually when guys change women or have baby incoming or whatever distractions I take those considerations seriously. I didn't so much because Perry's mind wasn't right to begin with, so I expected him to be able to perform as usual. Well, looks like I was wrong. He just lacked that little bit of sharpness and looked pretty gassed after first round, thus not being able to really put the kind of pressure on Means that was necessary.

All credit to Means though, he looked tremendous as well, pumping that jab out, keeping his boxing technical to run away with the decision. 

Chookagian vs. Calvillo was another not so great fight. I mean Chookagian did well, got well ahead with striking and kept Calvillo at bay, but you were left wondering why Calvillo didn't really go for it and test Chookagian's takedown defence more. Either way Chookagian stays near the top of the division due to this result, but not the most exciting fighter to watch.

My prediction about Craig v Rua turned out to be correct, with the fight being mostly even, but Craig just edging out both the grappling and striking, eventually leading to him to get the TKO. Sadly Herb didn't see Shogun just basically shelling up to step in, and Shogun had to tap to strikes, which is never a good look. 

Prelims

Brandon Moreno put in one of the most dominant displays of the card, not respecting Royval's grappling at all but diving into the grappling without hesitation. In the end it was a bit of fluke injury in shoulder dislocation that won him the match, but it had been all him up to that point anyway.

Jordan Wright did okay to start with Buckley, catching him with knees and kicks coming in, but ending up hanging in the pocket too much, and that was always gonna end up badly with Buckley. Wright was badly hurt in the 1st, was saved by the bell but could never recover and only lasted 18 seconds in the second.

I really overrated Ariane Lipski against Antonina Shevchenko. That, and Antonina improving her takedown defense lead to complete opposite of what I predicted happening. I mean Antonina dominated grappling and it was Lipski who was stinging her in the striking. Either way Antonina got the finish to make me look silly. 

Dalby v Rodriguez was one of those fights... Entertaining, sure, but both fighters seemed to not fully let go their offence, especially it was frustrating to see Rodriguez not really go for it when he was doing well whenever he pressured Dalby. Decision could have gone either way, Dalby got it this time.

I was definitely wrong about Jared Gooden, perhaps more tape would have solved the issue but either way Jouban was consistently outstriking him and deserved his decision. Kyle Daukaus was very close to getting a finish but has to settle for a decision as well.

In the opening fight big underdog cashes despite Sasha Palatnikov looking just as inferior fighter in the early going as the odds suggested. Cosce did the classic mistake of emptying his gas tank and was absolutely fried for the remainder of the fight. He did nutshot couple of breathers for himself, but it wasn't enough and Palatnikov finished him in the 3rd.

My picks

I got 4 out of 12 right. Absolutely destroying night, the kind that makes me feel like I should consider retiring from this racket. To be fair, I did call more fights kinda right than I actually got picks right, but there were some definitely bad calls in there too. My best pick was probably Figueiredo, though Moreno is close as well, but both performed as well as one would hope in their respective matches. Worst pick? I dunno, maybe Calvillo... Actually no, Lipski was way less competitive than I would have hoped. At least Calvillo was kinda close in every round, even if she lost every round. Women's MMA...

For most of the other fights I give myself a pass, there was either limited information or just a slight misread, or close fight that didn't go my way like Dalby v Rodriguez. 

I have no idea how bad loss I exactly took, but pretty safe to say at least 8 bets, probably enough to wipe all the recent winnings away. For whatever reason my betting account got locked and the support couldn't even give me a clear answer why. So maybe it's a sign from heavens to retire? I don't know, on the other hand lot of guys smarter than me took a beating today as well and I am still only learning this thing... So maybe I keep trying.

Next week's card is full of regional talent, but if anything I tend to do better assessing people with more rudimentary skillsets. So guess I will be back for another set of fights then.