UFC 255 Preview & Predictions
The big pay-per-view event... well, it really doesn't feel much like that, feels like I am doing another Fight Night preview for the lack of star value and big fights. There is two titles on the line, but in the two most dead divisions in the UFC. At least we get to see Valentina kill someone again.
Main Event: Deiveson Figuieredo vs. Alex Perez
So these are your headliners. You and me of course know them, cause we are hardcores... but I bet lot of the casuals are going like WHO DA FOOK ARE THESE GUYS??? Anyway that doesn't matter. It should be action-packed fight between two high level fighters, that's all a guy like me cares about.
Perez is a live dog and it would be interesting to have again a new champion in the division, but Figueiredo is kinda built like someone who could hold onto the belt for a while. It's a real shame Mighty Mouse is no longer in the UFC, cause it would have been a hell of a fight for him.
Deiveson has largely gone from strength to strength during his UFC spell, but beating faded Benavidez twice is not as great you would think, cause Benavidez was always gonna get knocked out against someone as fast and powerful as Deiveson is. Of course if we apply MMA math here it's not a good look for Perez, as Benavidez was the one to KO him, but that was two years ago and that's a tough match-up for an upcoming fighter.
Formiga is pretty much only blemish on Deiveson's record and Perez took care of that by TKOing him in the first round. So both of these guys are coming into the fight with a 1st round finish, but both also have cardio to go hard all 5 rounds, as you would expect in this division.
Both are also very well-rounded, though Figueiredo won't really pursue takedowns and grappling at all - he wants to hit you and hit you hard. So Perez will be the one with more varied offense as he can mix it up very well, being a solid grappler but also dangerous striker, though obviously nowhere near as powerful as Deiveson is.
Most likely finish here is Figueiredo by KO, but if the fight goes long I suppose Perez could start picking up rounds with volume and/or keeping striking close and hitting takedowns. So in a decision I would only give slight edge to Figuiredo. As Deiveson has never been subbed and even Formiga could not do it, I doubt Perez can do it either but that is still the most likely way Perez finishes this.
So all in all I am heavily favoring Figueiredo here. He will land something hard and GnP Perez unconscious afterwards.
Figueiredo via 2nd round KO.
Confidence in winner: 4
Co-Main Event: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jennifer Maia
Usually I wanna review tape before making my conclusions on fights but... what's the point? MMA math doesn't work, but I suppose when there is this vast skill gaps, it's not a completely futile endeavor. Maia fought to a close decision against Chookagian. She lost but for sake of argument, let's say that this means she is roughly same level fighter as Chookagian.
Well, Valentina dominated Chookagian for 3 rounds and then finished her. There's no reason to think the same would not happen again. Valentina is skill-for-skill one of the best fighters in UFC in all divisions. Maia is just... ordinary fighter at women's flyweight. I mean she is 3-2 since coming to UFC, hardly something that would make you think she could threaten Valentina. I just don't see any area of fighting where she can even match Valentina, let alone win.
It's just matter of how many rounds it takes. I don't think it takes that long.
Valentina Shevchenko via 2nd round KO.
Confidence in winner: 5
Tim Means vs. Mike Perry
So we get to the star of the show, Mike Perry. To be fair, this is another pretty soft match-up they throw at him. That's not to say Means is an easy opponent, but given Perry has been fighting high-level guys very often in last couple of years, Means is a clear drop in competition, just like Gall was.
Means was able to withstand Staropoli's shots, but there's still questions about his chin as he is 36, has been finished twice in his last four fights, and did indeed get a bit hurt in that Staropoli fight as well. Perry will surely put that chin to the test cause you can say what you will about Mike, he might not be the most technical guy but he keeps going and hits hard.
So I don't think Means can take it. Could he land something and KO Mike? Sure, but it's an outlier chance. I guess another way he wins this is if he can just keep high volume for couple of rounds and just edge those rounds (or Mike gasses), but I think Mike is gonna KO him in a fight where both guys are exchanging heavily. Means has the advantage on the outside, but I don't think Perry will allow this fight to stay outside. He will walk Means down like he always does.
Would expect it to be a wild fight so anything might happen. People have questioned Perry's mental state with whole weight miss and everything, but I don't see it being a major factor unless he comes out completely out of shape, as he has always been kinda crazy.
Mike Perry via 2nd round KO
Confidence in winner: 4
Katlyn Chookagian vs. Cynthia Calvillo
I really thought Chookagian could beat Andrade, but turns out she was rather easy to takedown for Andrade and also couldn't handle her power. Calvillo won't be as much power to deal with, but her grappling is better. All in all seems like a bad match-up for Chookagian, but I do think she has some chance to make this competitive fight, either through keeping it standing or using her crafty bottom game while on her back.
Still if this becomes a grappling match, the percentages shift heavily to Calvillo's favor. Calvillo showed some pretty decent striking against Eye, so that will help set up her takedowns.
It's close enough match-up, but those grapplers tend to just wrap up their opponents and win these, either through decision or sub. Chookagian ought to be good enough to survive to final bell and keep it tight.
Calvillo via UD.
Confidence in winner: 3
Mauricio Rua vs. Paul Craig
Please retire already Shogun. One can hope Craig neatly chokes Shogun out and Shogun retires here without taking much more damage, but I guess life never works that nicely. Either way Shogun is clearly on his way out, he has been declining for years but I think lately the decline has become more evident.
I mean you might think I am being unfair here considering he has won 6 out of his last 8 fights, but it is not the results themselves so much as the manner of those victories. Tyson Pedro victory was great for him obviously, but it's been nearly 2 years since that. Then he drew with Craig. Again not too bad by itself, though obviously prime vs. prime Rua should destroy Craig.
Either way he then fought completely shot Nogueira and it somehow was a competitive fight. Shogun only got a split in a fight where he probably should have gotten 1st round KO.
Rematches are always tough fights to find any value in. The first fight was obviously even, but only cause Craig likes to lay on his back a lot. Had they stood up more, it seemed like Craig was getting the better of the fight for the most part and that is a pretty sad notion. Shogun is declining, Craig is slightly improving and in his prime, I guess this one should be pretty close like the first one.
Both can score KO, obviously Shogun is known for that, but has slowed down in striking sufficiently that Craig put a real hurting on him. Craig is probably the only one with real chance of submission, but in a grappling match I do think Shogun has pretty good chance of winning as well - let's not forget Shogun won those latter two rounds in their match by top control. You would think Craig would have learned to not allow Shogun on top of him, but can't really trust on that.
In the end, I would say about 60/40 for Craig. If he isn't massive favorite, I will pick him.
Paul Craig via SD.
Confidence in winner: 2
Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval
This is the fight that has everybody pumped up. Two exciting flyweights, high output fast action, good striking and lots of grappling transitions to expect. As good as Royval's grappling is supposed to be, after beating Formiga and drawing with Askarov, I don't think Moreno has much to worry about on the ground against anyone in the UFC.
So Royval has his work cut out for him. He tends to lose if fight goes to a decision and it's really hard to finish Moreno who indeed has never been finished in 22 pro fights. It ought to not be hopeless though, as Royval's striking style is extremely high output and chaotic. Anything might happen, as even in previous fight against Kara-France they both were taking turns clipping each other.
If it stays on the feet, someone is getting hurt. More likely it is Royval, as striking is more Moreno's forte, but it's closer to 50/50 that 70/30. In the grappling realm it's similarly tight but that time leaning towards Royval. I still think the superior experience of Moreno will pull him ahead in this fight.
Brandon Moreno via UD.
Confidence in winner: 3
Joaquin Buckley vs. Jordan Wright
Buckley has generated a lot of talk since that all-time KO in his last fight, and lot of it has been negative from people saying he hurt people from gyms. We are not here to assess people's character though, in fact, if anything, bad guys seem more likely to win in this sport.
Buckley obviously has very good boxing and lot of power, but that KO was testament to his good kicks as well.
Wright is no easy out either though, having remained perfect with 100% after his UFC debut against bigger guy. 11-0, all finishes. Buckley will be tough to finish, but Wright certainly has the tall frame to give problems to the more stocky Buckley. Wright has both the reach and height advantages here.
That is exactly why I think he should be favorite here. Wright doesn't really hang at boxing range, he either uses that reach he has and kicks at you, and when Buckley will come in with those wild punches, Wright will grab a hold of him and start blasting those knees in the clinch. Obviously within those flurries anything might happen, but aside that Wright will be winning the fight.
The only question is the cardio, as if neither of these guys gets the finish, Buckley has a crazy volume and has never really slowed down. So that gives additional out for Buckley to win this, making it closer to even money proposition. Both have clear paths to victory, it's just matter of who manages to impose their game on the other.
I think at the present odds, Wright is worth a punt.
Jordan Wright via 2nd round KO.
Confidence in winner: 3
Antonina Shevchenko vs. Ariane Lipski
The inferior Shevchenko sister will try to get back on winning ways against Lipski who has now snapped up a couple of wins in a row against weaker competition. Don't know what the problem with Antonina is, guess she transitioned to MMA too late and hence has very little in way of takedown or grappling defence, unlike her sister who has developed into very well-rounded mixed martial artist.
Either way you have to wonder also what a domination like what Chookagian did to her is gonna do to her mind. Normally Shevchenko at least is a good striker, but knowing Lipski is gonna grapple her, that might make her timid on the feet as well. On the other hand, she has had time to try to address her takedown defence and lack of ability to escape issues.
Still, at 36 I am not gonna hold my breath that Shevchenko is gonna come out looking like a totally different fighter here. Even if she has addressed some of the issues, there was so many that it's unlikely she could have sorted all of it out by now.
Lipski could probably compete with her on the feet anyway, but obviously path of least resistance for her is to work the takedowns and submit Antonina. That's most likely thing to happen. It's really hard to see Antonina being able to keep this on the feet for 3 rounds after seeing how easily Chookagian took her down repeatedly.
Ariane Lipski via 2nd round submission
Confidence in winner: 4
Kyle Daukaus vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Daukaus lost against Brendan Allen last time around, but didn't look too bad in that fight, managing to land some damage on Allen and making it to a decision. He will welcome another newcomer from the Contender series in Stoltzfus.
Stoltzfus has not lost a fight since 2015, despite fighting seemingly decent guys at regionals. So he should be able to fight competitively against Daukaus, but it is his debut so some nerves ought to be normal - though of course fight being in the Apex just the same as Contender series does make that less of a consideration.
Either way they both are more grappling based fighters which makes this definitely an interesting fight. In the standup Stoltzfus has a pretty mean leg kick, but he was still getting outkicked in the contender fight. Either way this ought to be a fun back-and-forth fight where they both land damage, and do grappling transitions until someone gets submitted.
I can't really pick a winner here, guess I will go for whoever is an underdog. I suppose I would have Daukaus as a slight favorite.
Odds are quite wide for Stoltzfus, so it's time for some underdog bets again.
Stoltzfus via 2nd round submission.
Confidence in winner: 2
Louis Cosce vs. Sasha Palatnikov
Undefeated Contender alumni Cosce is gonna go up against regional guy whose most recent loss is against Mounir Lazzez, who looked very impressive earlier in his UFC debut. The tape I saw on Palatnikov is a year old, but unless he has vastly improved in that time, he will have tough time against any UFC level competition. Kinda sloppy entries, not very fast, kinda falls into the clinch. His wins are against very poor level of competition, Lazzez is really the only quality opponent he has faced and that time he got KOd.
Cosce is 7-0 with 100 % finish rate, mostly by KO, all in 1st round. Which is exactly how you would expect this match to go as well. Cosce hits hard, seems to have decent enough takedown defence and is very offensively potent from outside range too. I expect Palatnikov to be very overwhelmed early and when something lands flush, it's gonna be over.
Louis Cosce via 1st round KO.
Confidence in winner: 4
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