UFC Fight Night 182 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Paul Felder vs. Rafael Dos Anjos

I am glad RDA finally has a winnable match-up. Felder steps in on short notice to replace Islam, who would have probably just wrestlefucked RDA just like all the high-level wrestlers RDA has faced lately have done. 

RDA's record of late has been rought, going 1-4 in his last five fights, but I still believe the guy is a dangerous, capable fighter, just undersized for welterweight. Felder isn't going to wrestle him though and is a natural lightweight, so if RDA can't find a win here, it's pretty much over for him. That's not to say Felder isn't a tough opponent. The guy went earlier this year 5 hard rounds with one of the top contenders Hooker, and it was a really close fight. 

Felder's career has been kinda funny, cause I look at his record and I really don't see him having faced anyone like RDA or even any heavily grappling based opponents. RDA of course has good wrestling and grappling, even if he has preferred to be standup fighter in latter parts of his career.

Either way, I'm sure these two will stand and trade plenty. In that regard, two things stuck out for Felder - he is very susceptible to leg kicks and it's not hard to grab a clinch with him while trading. Both of these things should work to RDA's advantage. He should be able to destroy Felder's leg during the early rounds and maybe work some takedowns to secure close rounds. 

I expect Felder to not slow down much if its true that he has been training for triathlon, but as someone who has done both ultras and fought, it's not exactly same, so he probably will still slow down a bit if the fight goes deep. 

All in all for Felder there is no pressure here, it's RDA's fight to lose.

RDA via 4th round submission

Confidence in winner: 4

Co-Main Event: Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Kalinn Williams

Alhassan is literally 1st round KO or bust kind of guy. 10 wins, all by KO, all in 1st round, and 2 losses, all by decision. He goes all out and tries to finish, but then runs out of gas and gets dominated for rest of the fight. 

Williams is also powerful guy, but definitely not all or nothing kind of power that Alhassan has, for he has a bunch of decision wins on his record as well.

Both guys definitely have ways to win this one, but I do lean on Alhassan finding the moneyshot in the first. Williams would be smart to keep it grappling heavy in the first, either way the deeper this goes the better it is for him.

Abdul Razak Alhassan via 1st round KO.

Confidence in winner: 3

Kay Hansen vs. Cory McKenna

I guess there's lot of hype behind Hansen? I mean I can't imagine any other reason to have low-level women's MMA this high up the card. Frey put Hansen to the test in her debut, but eventually Hansen managed to pull it together and finish her via armbar. 

McKenna is a newcomer with decent 5-1 record, only loss via split decision, but she hasn't fought anyone of note so it's hard to say how good she is. Which is exactly why I don't feel strongly either way of this matchup. Hansen showed some holes in her game against Frey, but at least Frey is someone with a reputation. 

Kay Hansen via UD.

Confidence in winner: 1

Antonio Arroyo vs. Eryk Anders

The pattern is pretty clear, Anders loses against anyone good... and sometimes against guys he is supposed to beat as well. I suppose Arroyo is under the latter group. Arroyo moves pretty well for a big guy, has good kicks but is also fairly hittable and not great at stopping takedowns. As for Anders, he is perceived as a powerful guy, but 4 out of his last fights have gone to decision and only has 1 KO win in last 6 fights. 

Still there is decent chance to catch Arroyo on the chin with something hard. On the other hand there is definitely a real chance here this turns out like the Khalil fight where Anders is hesitant and gets kicked to smithereens. Then again he showed against Machida that he can work a more wrestling-based attack too, even if he fell short that time. Definitely he will need to be crowding Arroyo here to take away his best strength.

I don't know, I think Arroyo is similar enough to Jotko on the feet, just not as good at stopping the takedown. Either way Anders just kinda doesn't throw enough, so while he might get a round off of takedowns, I can't really trust on him for a decision. I lean on Arroyo having this, but the higher chance of Anders KO does make it more even.

Antonio Arroyo via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Brendan Allen vs. Sean Strickland

Allen was supposed to fight Heinisch last week, but that fight obviously got pulled, so here we are with Strickland stepping in for a quick turnaround. Strickland is in certain ways similar to Heinisch - both are mobile guys with good striking, but obviously Strickland moves very differently and hits with less power, relying more on volume. 

If anything though Strickland ought to be even tougher matchup. Still I do think Strickland is less likely to KO Allen if he couldn't get Marshman out of there. As far as striking goes, Allen is like Marshman or maybe even worse, but he has that formidable threat with grappling. Still, if Strickland didn't spend 15 minutes pinned on the mat against Usman, I am sure he will be able to strike with Allen a lot as well. 

Allen is a good grappler but he doesn't always maintain those positions the best and like I said, I expect Strickland to start touching him up pretty fast on the feet. Obviously if Allen can follow the same gameplan as Usman did, it will become a much closer fight and it's very likely there is a round or two that could be scored either way.

Sean Strickland via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Ashley Yoder vs. Miranda Granger

Deep sigh. Very low-level women's MMA. I keep picking Yoder and she keeps losing, so I guess I should punt on Granger despite not thinking she is very good? Yoder's 2-5 UFC record is definitely rough. 

Granger definitely is the better striker here, but against high-level grappler Lemos she got utterly dominated. While I don't think Yoder is high level, I think she has a solid shot of catching Granger in something here. She is probably physical enough to drag it to the ground a couple of times at least. I do think Granger wins it if it goes to a decision, cause if Yoder can't find the submissions she tends to give away position on the ground.

So, guess here we go again, I am ready to get hurt again.

Ashley Yoder via 2nd round submission.

Confidence in winner: 2

Alex Morono vs. Rhys McKee 

By now Morono is a 10-fight UFC Veteran, and should be a clear favorite against perhaps one of the worst fighters ever signed to UFC. Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a hopeless match-up for McKee, but he definitely is not a very good fighter and that Chimaev fight showed it, he got finished even faster than Phillips. 

McKee is a powerful finisher on the feet, and that is where his chance in this match is, but he has almost no takedown defence and Morono should be smart and well-rounded enough to exploit that. If the odds are very lop-sided, McKee might be worth a punt for the small chance he scores a KO here. After all, Morono just got finished in his last fight early on. 

Morono loves to stand and trade and that's what did him in with Williams. I guess it would be fair to say McKee is not AS powerful, but he is still a dangerous proposition for Morono if he really just wants to strike. Clearly the path of least resistance is to work the takedowns. For any reasonable odds, Morono is the play here, but for a very wide line McKee is worth a gamble.

Odds are reasonable enough, Morono is the play here. Morono via UD.

Confidence in winner: 2 

Louis Smolka vs. Jose Alberto Quinonez

Both guys got finished in the first round last time around, Quinonez of course in more devastating fashion. Smolka should be the better guy on paper, but on the other hand his biggest wins are down at flyweight and he missed weight so one has to wonder if he shows up here looking his best. 

I don't think there's big enough difference on the feet here that we would see a KO. I mean both are a little chinny so take that with a grain of salt, but it seems Smolka's better grappling would be the difference maker in this fight. If it becomes a striking match it could really go either way, back and forth with both throwing a lot of volume. However if Smolka starts losing, he always has that option to start to work the grappling, whereas I don't feel like Quinonez really has that. So yea, despite the caveats, I would go for Smolka here.

Louis Smolka via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Randa Markos vs. Kanako Murata

Markos' perfect win-loss alternating pattern that lasted for years has finally ended now that she took back-to-back losses against two grappling experts, Ribas and Dern. That Dern fight was particularly damaging for her reputation, cause she willingly stepped into Dern's guard with no need to do that. 

So all in all Markos is kinda incoherent fighter. Decent striking, bit better grappling but not world class, tough and poor fight IQ. Has solid and well-rounded enough skills to feast on low level competition or sub strikers or squeak decisions once in a while, but not good enough against anyone actually good.

So is Murata any good? Well she is unbeaten except for lone loss against everyone's favorite fighter Rin Nakai. Her biggest name win is Angela Magana... which is kinda embarrassing actually cause Magana has not won a fight since 2011. Anyway records don't tell us that much, obviously you can only beat what is in front of you and she has certainly beaten the so-so competition that she has faced. Style is more important here since it is so obvious that Markos struggles against certain types of fighters.

Well, Murata seems more of a grappler than anything else. Pretty good top control, might struggle to wrestle Markos down though. I think this will be low-level women's MMA at it's finest, very close rounds with grappling transitions and sloppy striking. I don't think Murata is any Dern/Ribas level grappler so Markos can probably match her there and is experienced enough to edge out the striking. It's gonna be a close decision either way, if Murata is big enough underdog I will take her, but generally I lean on Markos getting it, at least she has been fighting at a high level for a long time. 

Murata is actually the favorite here. I don't know, it didn't look to me like she should be that dominant so I am on Markos here.

Randa Markos via SD.

Confidence in winner: 2

Tony Gravely vs. Geraldo De Freitas Jr.

Gravely came out of the Contender series and was immediately matched up against the tough Brett Johns, predictably coming up short. De Freitas on the other hand is 1-1 in UFC with two decisions on his record, latter being split decision loss to Chris Gutierrez. 

Although Gravely lost last time around, Johns is a very high-level fighter, and that fight all in all was very high level fight. So even in loss, Gravely managed to show a very complete game, with some sharp striking and obviously very strong wrestling, even though in the end Johns managed to get the better positions. There is not many fighters in UFC who will outgrapple Johns, so the fact that Gravely managed to even hang as much as he did shows he is very good.

De Freitas certainly is a good fighter too, he has range here so he probably can be winning this fight on the feet, but I honestly don't think they are gonna hang much on the outside. Gravely will wanna wrestle, and De Freitas is very willing clincher, so they will close the distance pretty quick and after that it will be Gravely's world. 

If De Freitas managed to keep it on the outside, he definitely has volume over Gravely and he probably is durable enough to not get powershotted out of the fight. That would mean though that he would have to fight completely differently from how he fought against Gutierrez. Also I suppose he could outgrapple Gravely, but that would mean I misjudged his grappling ability - which I don't think is bad, but not good enough to consistently reverse against tough wrestler like Gravely.

Tony Gravely via UD.

Confidence in winner: 4

Don'Tale Mayes vs. Roque Martinez

Bottom of the bottom as far as UFC heavyweights go. We have guy of my size who just got really fucking obese fighting against guy who got subbed by a kickboxer and finished so far in his both UFC fights. At least Mayes looks like he would be UFC level fighter, Martinez kinda comes off as a tough fat dude. 

These are both kind of dodgy fighters here, but Martinez does not come off as a wrestler and with 5'10 frame you are gonna struggle striking with someone who has 81 inch reach. Mayes might not be great, but at least he is big and athletic and that just might be enough here.

Don'Tale Mayes via 2nd round KO.

Confidence in winner: 2