UFC on ESPN 17 Post-Fight Analysis

So Glover is officially the light heavyweight GOAT. Favorites kept dominating, but couple of big underdog cashes spurred me into a big win in tonight's event.

Main Card

How good was that main event? Marreta started right away by hurting Glover with pretty much the first solid shot he landed, and it looked like the fight would not last very long. Glover had other ideas, as he did what he always does when he gets his bell rung - gets the takedown right into a dominant position. 

Then it was smooth sailing for him for the rest of the round, as he worked the ground and pound. He kept on that successful formula in the 2nd, dominating in top position and accumulating damage on Santos. You would think that Santos would not have much juice left after taking a beating on the ground for two rounds, but no, the guy has so much power that even when faded, he was only couple of clean shots away from KOing Glover in the 3rd.

Santos knocked Glover down, but it was just then when his fight IQ abandoned him and he gave Glover a chance to get back into fighting. Have him stand up, he probably finishes it, but on the ground Glover was much better able to defend himself and as Santos emptied the gas tank chasing the finish, Glover reversed the position and got on top. After that there was nothing left in Santos and Glover got a quick tap out of him. 

Twists and turns galore, but in the end Glover deserved that. He looked lean and performance was world class. Santos is still a dangerous guy, but obviously him being out so long affected his takedown defence and grappling to some extent. 

In the co-main we saw a good fight to go sleep to, as Boser and Arlovski stared at each other for three rounds. On the positive side it went exactly as I wrote in my preview, with Arloski snapping up two close rounds. 

I predicted the Barcelos and Taha fight pretty correctly too, but I went wrong in changing my pick based on the odds. You can't powershot your way into a KO if you can't land solidly, and Barcelos is just defensively so solid it is very hard to land clean on him. Dominant performance from him and he showed very good skills in all areas. Bantamweight is a shark tank.

UFC got what they wanted after matching Giga with some random. The skill disparity was wide and Giga starched him in under 4 minutes with a headkick. Pointless fight, but hey, adds another win to Chikadze's win streak and gives unnecessary brain damage to some low-level pro who at least has a cool tale to tell his grandkids, if he is still able to speak then. 

Yan and Gadelha had a pretty good scrap to start off the main card. I thought Claudia could put a little sterner test on Yan, but guess we could say that Yan is legit in every regard, even if she did get top controlled in the 1st round. Still she avoided taking lot of damage, was vicious and relentless on the feet, and stopped rest of the takedowns very well. Most importantly, she never showed any signs of slowing down. Definitely a top contender now. As for Gadelha, I guess that's it for her ever challenging for title again.

Prelims

Trevin Giles and Bevon Lewis had an active first round with both grappling and striking exchanges, but after Giles put Lewis on his ass with a stiff jab at the end of first, Lewis seemed to get much more timid. That allowed Giles to kinda coast through the second round and eventually get the finish in the third. Solid performance from Giles, but the prospect Lewis seems to be washing out here.

Alexander Romanov had some sketchy moments against Marcos Rogerio De Lima, who managed to make Romanov work hard for the takedowns and hit some punishing combinations on the feet. In the end Romanov did manage to ground De Lima, and put his forearm on his neck until he passed out. Not something you often see, in fact I have never seen in before. Strong fucker this Romanov guy. King Kong stays unbeaten with 100 % finish rate. I still hope they keep matching him up patiently, he has holes in his striking defense. Few years down the line him vs. Blaydes would be the ultimate HW wrestling matchup.

Elkins was another guy who had some sketchy moments against Garagorri. Couple of rounds of wrestlefucking had him on the trajectory towards decision victory, but he had been split open by whatever striking offense Garagorri had managed to put together up until that point. In the third Garagorri finally managed to really hurt him, with just couple more clean shots needed to finish Elkins off. After a missed knee from Garagorri, Elkins managed to take him down and quickly after that Elkins found the neck for late submission win.

I missed the end of Griffin vs. Brahimaj, but Griffin kept that one technical, was never in the danger of needing to face Brahimaj's dangerous grappling, and just won the two first rounds while damage accumulated. In the end Brahimaj's ear was about to fall off and the doctor stopped the fight.

Gustavo Lopez hurt Anthony Birchak early and then grounded him for a fast submission halfway the first round. I certainly misjudged Lopez who did not look very good against Merab, but that just shows how you look good or bad depending on your opponent. Merab is the kind of guy who won't allow you to look good. Against lower level competition, Lopez made quick work of it.

My picks

I wouldn't say it was a perfect night, but it was definitely great event with me getting 7 out of 10 picks right and getting biggest profit of recent memory, +6 bets. Best pick is a close one between the two main event picks, in the end I lean on Glover, since he is, you know, the goat. Arlovski's win was a bit too close shave for comfort. 

Worst pick is a close one as well, but in the end I most regret picking Taha against Barcelos. Yea, he is powerful and yes, he can score the KO there, but never often enough to warrant even the wide odds he had. I don't mind myself picking Gadelha too much, as Yan was a bit of an unknown quantity against a top grappler and as for Lopez v Birchak, it was kind of a limited information situation. The bad thing about that was that I got carried away with the odds and bet too big on Birchak. In the end that only makes half a bet of difference. 

Next weekend we continue again and there is far less newcomers on the card it seems, so ought to make for bit easier predictions.