UFC on ESPN 17 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Thiago Santos vs. Glover Texeira

Athletic, powerful guy that tends to get sloppy versus older, more experienced guy with solid fundamentals. In general you know in these situations experience and technique win. Santos has looked great at light heavyweight and arguably beat Jones, but he did get serious injury in that fight and that might be a factor in this fight. As for Glover, there has been signs of his chin abandoning him, but ultimately he has not been KOd since 2017.

All in all I would say this similar match-up to Texeira's last fight. Except Santos is much better. Either way love him or hate him, Smith has power, and he was unable to really make it count against Glover. Still, like I said, Santos is better, has more variety in his attack, and probably even more power. This is all set to be the kind of fight where Glover is winning... until he no longer isn't. 

Can't really reliably pick either guy here. They are both old, that title fight with Jones might have been Santos' career peak that he will be unable to reclaim, that injury casts a doubt whether he will ever be the same, and Glover is the more technical fighter who is also better on the ground. Still, it's hard to trust on Glover against such athleticism - if Jones struggled with it, surely it is gonna end ugly to an older guy?

It's underdog or nothing here cause both guys can viably win this one.

Glover Texeira via 5th round submission.

Confidence in winner: 2

Co-Main Event: Andrei Arlovski vs. Tanner Boser

We have written Arlovski off so many times already, and I thought when Bigi Boy made quick work of him that would be it. How wrong I was, for Arlovski came back to make Philippe Lins look like an amateur fighter and had another decision. That's now 9 decision in 10 fights for Arlovski. 

Problem is that Boser moves fast for a heavyweight and has high enough volume to beat Arlovski for a decision, but he also carries enough power to knock Arlovski out. I mean obviously the chin hasn't gone yet, but it's not steel chin either at age 41. Boser now has two KOs in a row, and one against Arlovski's last opponent Lins, so MMA math should dictate that he has a good chance to make it three in a row. 

I think Arlovski is slightly the better fighter still, but how much has the age caught up with him, and how much has Boser improved? Either way both fight in a similar style, cautious boxing based style, so I do kind of expect this to go to decision, and youth is the key thing that makes me lean towards Boser having this. Definitely would have Arlovski as sizeable underdog though, as he can snap up tight rounds like he did against Lins. 

Andrei Arlovski via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Raoni Barcelos vs. Khalid Taha

Bantamweight division is so deep, here we have two basically unknown guys, but as it turns out, both are pretty high level, skilled guys that could pose problems even to highly-ranked fighters.

Barcelos is a very well-rounded guy who has sharp stand-up, very good leg kicks and can take the fight to the ground if necessary and finish it there. Said Nurmagomedov was the first guy in UFC that he did not finish, that was a very close fight but Nurmagomedov himself is another high level guy in this division. 

Taha KOd Boston Salmon in his debut but that doesn't tell us much since everyone KOs Salmon. Either way he has lot of KOs on his record and is clearly a powerfully built guy, but he did not manage to put away Bruno Silva in his last fight. Still, Silva got hurt in that fight, so the power was still shown. However, Silva also quite easily top controlled Taha for a ground.

So while I think Barcelos can take on Taha in the stand-up and perhaps even match him, I do think it is a risky strategy and he would do well to take this fight to the ground. Even in extended stand-up exchanges, Taha's leg is there to be kicked and Barcelos can really do some damage there. I see Barcelos taking over the fight the longer it goes, but there is always the risk of early KO with Taha.

Most likely outcome still is that Barcelos takes Taha deep and teaches him a lesson.

Taha is worth a punt at those odds though.

Khalid Taha via 1st round KO.

Confidence in winner: 2

Ian Heinisch vs. Brendan Allen

Heinisch looked great last time around, but this ain't no shot Meerschaert he is fighting this time but one of the brighter prospects of the division in Brendan Allen. Obviously Heinisch is a very explosive, fast striker, so Allen needs to get this to the floor asap. I do think he has the durability to do so, but either way you can't rule out a KO from Heinisch, the guy's power is no joke.

He also moves well which is important against grapplers, you don't wanna have them touch you in the first place. Obviously he does need to put a hurting on Allen pretty fast to relieve some of that forward pressure, cause if Allen keeps on him, Heinisch is not gonna last three rounds without getting exhausted. 

I do think he will pop Allen with some hard shots though and slow him down. Allen can also a be a little sloppy on the ground, as in get into bad positions cause he trusts his grappling so much to eventually reverse the position. Which is why as good of a fighter as I think Allen is, you have to see Heinisch as favorite here. He can definitely KO Allen, which I hope won't happen cause that kind of damage on a young fighter is never a good look, and he can also slow down the forward pressure and dominate from the outside to get all the rounds for a UD. 

Either way I have a bad feeling that it might be a KO. Historically Heinisch has struggled with grinding wrestlers, so Allen is also a live dog here if he can just force the clinch early and keep forcing it often. Allen is not as lumbering as Meerschaert is, so he has much better chance at closing the distance here. 

Ian Heinisch via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Claudia Gadelha vs. Xiaonan Yan

Yan gets a legit chance here to become a strawweight contender, as Gadelha is right up there in rankings. Gadelha also gets a chance here to wash off the bad taste of that split decision win against Angela Hill. 

Yan obviously beat Hill via unanimous decision, so MMA math would dictate that she easily beats Gadelha. That was whole different stylistic match-up though. That is the unknown here. Yan has never faced a grappler of Gadelha's level and it's quite possible that she just gets quickly subbed here.

As for stand-up, Claudia has been improving hers as well lately with Mark Henry, but I do think Yan probably has the advantage on the feet. Either way it's clearly a close match-up with Claudia having slight advantage cause she has more ways to win this. Expecting a close decision. Claudia losing third round is almost a given, she never has the greatest cardio.

Claudia Gadelha via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Trevin Giles vs. Bevon Lewis

So Giles beat a 170er on 24-hour notice, barely squeaking by him in a split decision, and Lewis beat probably the worst guy in the division that has had more than 3 UFC fights. Someone is about to have two-fight win streak on the weakest of grounds. 

Thing Giles is the more powerful, better striker here, but Lewis has made good strides in that and could even make it close on the feet, definitely though his best bet is a grinding wrestling match that he is good at. It's a close fight on paper for me, I think I will just pick whoever is underdog. Lewis has quite a bit of reach here as well, so that further evens out whatever advantages Giles might have.

Trevin Giles via UD.

Confidence in winner: 2

Giga Chikadze vs. James Krause-Simmons

Giga has a very quick turn-around here after dominating Omar Morales, facing up against another regional newcomer. Krause-Simmons... well you can never say there is 0 % chance in this sport, but we are putting literal world class guy against some guy who has been smashing cans. If Omar Morales couldn't wrestlefuck Chikadze, I don't think Krause-Simmons will either, and he sure as hell isn't outstriking Giga. 

Puncher's chance, not much more. At least Krause-Simmons looks pretty relaxed fighter in his tape, that is not a given. Still, there's levels to this game and only reason they would make this match-up is that Giga could have a KO in his resume.

Giga Chikadze via 2nd round KO.

Confidence in winner: 5

Max Griffin vs. Ramiz Brahimaj

Griffin boasts a rough 3-6 record in the UFC, including 1-4 in his last five, but at least he has been, for the most part, facing tough opposition - losses to likes of Colby Covington, Elizeu Zalewski Dos Santos and Alex Oliveira. He even has managed a win over everyone's favorite black fighter, Mike Perry. 

So after having rough times in the UFC, Griffin gets a big step down in competition here against dangerous grappler Brahimaj. Brahimaj is one of the many regional fighters that have lately been getting shot in UFC thanks to the situation. 

At least Griffin should have a sizeable experience advantage here, and although he has notched up a lot of losses, at least he has been making it to decision in a lot of them. Covington is the only one to finish Griffin in all his career. Brahimaj only has submission wins and Griffin has never been submitted. 

Brahimaj has very potent offensive grappling and overall well-rounded game, so although it is a drop in competition for Griffin and much less experienced opponent, this isn't an easy fight for Griffin. Still, he has fought in all likelihood tougher guys and made it to decisions. Griffin has been damaged many times but been finished only once, so I expect him to be able to make it to another decision here if he just gets through the dangerous early times. 

Max Griffin via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Darren Elkins vs. Luiz Eduardo Garagorri

Elkins is running out of time. His fighting style is clear with nickname like damage, but shelf-life for that kind of fighter... well, Elkins has outlasted that shelf-life already some distance, this being his 34th pro fight. He is now on a 4 fight losing streak and desperately needs a win here. Garagorri is no slouch, but he isn't the kind of power guy to be immediate KO threat unless Elkins' chin is completely shot.

However Elkins' way to victory is pretty clear - grapple for your life. Garagorri has had shoddy takedown defence in his past, so Elkins can force clinch and takedowns here and just keep it on the ground. Submission might present itself, but it's pretty safe way to get a victory here.

Darren Elkins via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Alexander Romanov

Our favorite King Kong, Romanov is back for some more King Kong GnP. Fresh off of his UFC debut two months ago, he still retains his unbeaten record and has finished all of his wins. Rogerio de Lima does represent a step-up in competition as a legit, UFC-level guy.

Still, all of Rogerio de Lima's wins are against pretty bottom rung UFC heavyweights, certainly lot of them against guys who no longer are in UFC. So Romanov should have a good chance here to do what he always does - taking him down and pounding him. 

Romanov legit looks like he would be problem for anyone outside of top-5. Decent stand-up, good athleticism, and relentless wrestling pressure and GnP. Big fan of this guy. So as always with these type of fighters, question is can Rogerio de Lima stop the takedown? I would lean towards no, as all his last three losses were via submission. Romanov's king kong pounding looks fun, but in all likelihood he has to sub de Lima to get him out of there.

Lima can win of course, in his last fight he liked to plant and throw fast, powerful combinations every time Sosoli entered into range, and got KO early that way. He will have to repeat that to win here, I see him fading under pressure in all other scenarios.

Alexander Romanov via 2nd round submission

Confidence in winner: 4

Gustavo Lopez vs. Anthony Birchak

Birchak is a regional journeyman with some decent amount of experience but mostly losses against the legit guys he has fought against. He has notched up 3 first round finishes straight, but against low-level opposition so you can't really read too much into it. Lopez debuted in UFC five months ago and was always gonna have a bad time against Merab's endless gas tank.

Even with UFC fight on his record, it's hard to gauge how good Lopez is because Merab's style is so drowning in many ways. Not only the fact that he will repeatedly take you down, but just the threat of the wrestling being there all the time will shut down your own game. This one should give us much better idea of Lopez' skills, but he has already been KOd couple of times in his career by good strikers, got caught with some hard shots in striking against Merab and doesn't look like the most mobile guy on the feet. As for grappling, he did do good job to scramble up repeatedly against Merab, but of course could not get even close to stopping the takedowns. 

Birchak has some decent power, seems to be the better striker, definitely moved better than Lopez, and is also dangerous offensive grappler. It just seems like Lopez is gonna have a tough time in every realm here. Can't get too confident on him as his chin has been checked a few times as well, he is already up on age, and as said, I am not exactly confident on how good Lopez is. So picking Birchak with some reservations here.

Anthony Birchak via 2nd round KO. 

Confidence in winner: 3