UFC on ESPN 18 Preview & Predictions

Man, this was a rough card even before the main event got dropped, and it only got rougher after that. On the positive side, it is just 10 fights, which is how I would like it anyway. If I could just have 10 fights squeezed into 3.5 hours every week, that would be the ideal fight event for me. 

Main Event: Anthony Smith vs. Devin Clark

Interesting fight. Smith is on the way down, Clark on the way up. Or rather, Smith seems to have been much worse than we thought he is, and Clark seems to be much better than we thought he is. 

Smith's last fight is hard to judge much by, cause he got his leg compromised with chopping leg kicks early and then was content to just be top controlled into a decision. Clark has two wins in a row, but one against one of the worst guys in the division and second against a guy who was always likely to gas if you could just take him into deep waters.

So all in all, I am not convinced Clark is class yet, but I have to admit he has definitely been improving. Enough to challenge Smith? Truth is, that first round against Menifield was rough. You might not rate Smith that great, but he does hit hard as well. He can definitely make Clark really uncomfortable especially early. Smith also has much bigger gas tank than Menifield, although he has gassed before. 

Clark has lost against all the quality opponents he has faced, and also Ryan Spann. So all-in all, I think he gets finished early here.

Anthony Smith via 2nd round TKO.

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Miguel Baeza vs. Takashi Sato

Two guys with high finishing rates going at it, so likely someone is getting KOd here. Hard to go against undefeated fighter, but I do feel like this is first time Baeza fights against someone this experienced. Okay, you could argue that Brown was more experienced and you would be right, but Brown is also so far past his prime that it almost does not matter. Besides that fight was kinda rough for Baeza until he found the finish. 

Similarly slow start could be something that Sato could exploit, given he has a ton of 1st round finishes. 

Still, I don't think Sato finishes this, but probably hurts Baeza enough at some point that he can carry that lead over to the finishing line.

Takashi Sato via UD.

Confidence in winner: 2

Josh Parisian vs. Parker Porter

Parker Porter is... alright. Good boxing, apparently also good jitz, but Daukaus had the better striking and got the KO in his UFC debut. Parisian comes off of Contender series and has 6 fight winning streak, but against guys who are either inexperienced or with awful records. 

I do think Porter needs to take this down. Not that Parisian is such a devasting striker, but he does like to hit those heavy leg kicks and it's gonna be a problem if he starts landing volume of them. It's two big guys fighting, ultimately anything can happen. Porter would do well to box into clinch then work some takedowns, hanging at range certainly is death here. Porter's experience advantage and the fact that Parisian is so green makes me feel Porter is worth a punt here. 

Parker Porter via 2nd round KO.

Confidence in winner: 2

Bill Algeo vs. Spike Carlyle

Hard fight to call cause Algeo did so well against veteran Lamas, but Carlyle also has looked phenomenal during his UFC run. Carlyle does some dodgy decisions in the cage, over-confident stuff, if he improves that area he could be one of the best featherweights around cause he for sure is unusually strong guy, both in punching power and wrestling. 

Obviously Carlyle gassed pretty bad against Quarantillo, so here too the question is whether he can last the full three rounds should the fight go that long. Algeo has been subbed couple of times but never KOd, so it is definitely not easy go to put away. 

Still, I can't help but to feel that Carlyle is gonna hit him hard in the 1st, the 2nd will be close but Carlyle will land the bigger shots and then lose 3rd round handsomely but survive to the bell and win the fight. Either way both guys can clearly win this fight, but I gotta be on Alpha Ginger here.

Spike Carlyle via 1st round KO.

Confidence in winner: 3

Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Norma Dumont Viana

Low-level women's MMA. Flip a coin. To be fair, Evans-Smith at least has a lot of experience in the UFC and has lost to some decent competition. As for Viana, she is only 5 fights deep into her MMA career and Megan Anderson was always gonna be a tough out on your debut. For about 3 minutes, Viana looked decent, being able to control Anderson against the fence, but then she ate a punch that put her on her back and finished the fight.

Evans-Smith has the experience advantage, but I don't feel confident here she has advantage aside that in this fight. Her striking is kind of wooder, but at least she does put a high output. Can she avoid Viana grappling her? Who will gas out first? Gotta say I can't answer to those questions so I am just gonna pick whoever has higher odds here.

Norma Dumont Viana via 2nd round submission.

Confidence in winner: 1

Kai Kamaka III vs. Jonathan Pearce

Kamaka is a pretty complete package with good wrestling making him competent both in clinch and on the ground, and sharp striking on the feet as well. He had fun scrap last time around with Tony Kelley. As for Pearce, 2019 Lauzon managed to knock him out... so yeah... not a good look. 

Kamaka is solid like I said, Pearce on the other hand seems to kinda lead with his chin. Lauzon was just smacking him around even before the KO. All in all Kamaka looks good enough to stick around, Pearce nowhere near good enough. Kamaka should be winning this everywhere. 

Kai Kamaka via 1st round KO.

Confidence in winner: 4

Martin Day vs. Anderson Dos Santos

Did someone crossbreed Anderson Silva and Junior Dos Santos in a lab or what? I keep saying it this is a rough card but... it really is. Another fight with both guys having back-to-back losses under their belt coming into the fight. 

Dos Santos is a very good grappler. As far as striking goes, he is tough, but gets hit way too much. Obviously like in most of his matches it is imperative he works this one to the ground. 

Day has very good striking OFFENSIVELY, but he gets hit way too much as well. He also got hit with a life-changing KO last time around, so it always adds more questionmarks on how a fighter is gonna look next time around. So all in all I just feel Santos has more ways to win this, which is why I lean on him.

Anderson Dos Santos via 2nd round submission.

Confidence in winner: 3

Rachael Ostovich vs. Gina Mazany

I always harp on the low level women's MMA... Well this is pretty much as low as it gets. Two girls with records around .500, one who is in UFC more due to her looks than her skill, and another whose UFC record is 1-4.

Ostovich has been finished twice in a row, Mazany has also been finished twice in a row in the UFC, although has one win in between outside UFC. So it really is worst of the worst match-up. 

I don't know. Ostovich can at least wrestle to some extent, but her striking is not great... but then again neither is Mazany, who got finished fast with strikes last time. So all in all, I lean towards Ostovich having this, but barely any confidence.

Ostovich via 3rd round submission.

Confidence in winner: 2

Su Mudaerji vs. Malcolm Gordon

Mudaerji is a rangy striker with KO power, Gordon pretty rangy too but more of a grappler. Mudarji had finished/gotten finished in all of his fights until his second UFC fight. He seems much the better striker here, but has seemed to struggle against good grapplers - all of his losses are via submission.

So both guys have clear path to victory, but I do feel Mudaerji's advantage on the feet is bigger than Gordon's on the ground. You can go either way though in this match-up. In the end I am more leaning towards Gordon just not being so good rather than Mudaerji being so good.

Su Mudaerji via 1st round KO.

Confidence in winner: 3

Luke Sanders vs. Nate Maness

Sanders has been away for a while so some ring rust might become an issue, especially since his last win was against completely shot Barao. It wasn't a great win either. I mean sure, he flatlined Barao in the end, but in the process was getting marked up a lot. 

Barao obviously at this late stage of his career does not have much chin left. It's hard to trust much on Sanders because of all of that, as if it wasn't hard enough to trust someone who managed to get TKOd by Soukhamthath. 

Since Sanders last fought, Maness has fought 3 times. I don't know how he has one UFC win in his record though, he didn't really do much against Munoz, got pretty much clinched up the whole fight. So it seems like Sanders might have the wrestling advantage here, standing up it's anyone's guess. Although I don't trust Sanders much, in this matchup I do think his skills and experience is gonna be enough.

Luke Sanders via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

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