UFC 256 Post-Fight Analysis

UFC 256 was full of finishes and ended with fight of the year contender that anti-climatically ended in a draw. Let's recap the event and see what I predicted right and wrong.

Main Card

The question was whether Moreno could take Figueiredo deep and whether he could impose his grappling. Well, yes and yes... kinda. It seemed that particularly after Fig started to tire, he was very easy to take down, but Moreno chose to use that option only when he was getting tagged particularly heavy rather than constantly pursuing it. Moreno took Figueiredo's best shot and even some combinations of strikes, but probably was close to getting finished a few times too. 

The otherwise great fight was marred by Figueiredo's dirty tactics, raking at Moreno's eyes, eyepokes, even some nutshots. Either way you can't really fault the judges for allowing him to retain his title, as even though Fig only has gas for like 2.5 rounds, he still puts a ton of damage on you in that time and still has enough to him to be dangerous in the other half of the fight as well.

Despite starting to fade, Figueiredo dug deep to find some energy reserves to land a few hard kicks to start round 5, which ultimately made sure he kept his title. Moreno popped something in his shoulder blocking those shots and could not really put volume on Fig after that, losing the deciding round.

In the co-main event I got reminded again that I should follow my instincts more. My instinct was is that Oliveira is basically same fighter as Tony, but in his prime whereas Tony is bit past it. Don't get me wrong, Tony didn't look old or bad at all, it's just that Oliveira was absolutely on top of his game and completely shut out a guy who destroyed almost everyone else he faced. Oliveira is absolutely a lock to fight for the vacant title after that, anything else would be an outrage.

Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba had very close fight. It seemed like Dern was getting the better of the stand-up and Virna was not willing to play the grappling game really with her, but Dern's nose getting smashed started to change the tide. Dern dug deep though to get the win in the end via close decision.

The last two fights were so great you almost forgot about the absolute monster performance Kevin Holland put in against Jacare. I figured Jacare would be able to easily get to grappling with Holland just like Allen did, and it was half right, but obviously Holland had improved his ground fighting vastly. He had Jacare in couple of tight spots until he landed some hellacious shots off his back to KO Jacare. As hard as those shots were, I do think Jacare's age did play some part in the fact he went so badly out from those shots.

Ciryl Gane didn't have much trouble putting away JDS. Gane fought his typical fight, staying technical and safe, just letting the points rack up until he found his opening. JDS gets hurt every time these days, and it's time to take a big step-down in competition if he still keeps fighting in the UFC.

Prelims

Cub Swanson showed all the doubters that he is still a good fighter that will put away only peripherally UFC level talents like Pineda. That being said, Pineda did come out of the gates hard and hacked up Cub's injured leg pretty good. Pineda is a fast starter and ultimately could not keep up the pace that he started with. He was sucking wind hard at the end of first round and as such, the holes in the defense started to appear. Swanson took advantage, rocking Pineda already at end of 1st, before ultimately getting the TKO in 2nd. 

Fiziev put on a striking clinic last time around all through the three rounds, but managed to do even better this time by viciously knocking out long-time contender Renato Moicano in the first round. Up until that point the fight had been relatively close, but Fiziev was getting better of striking in general even before the combination that finished Moicano. 

With so many KO losses in recent times one has to wonder if Moicano is washing out, though that combination would have put out most fighters. For Fiziev this ought to mean a very high-profile fight next, and as for Moicano, he should consider being more urgent about grappling in the future.

Billy Quarantillo puts a pace on everyone, but Gavin Tucker managed to match that pace, and more importantly, he was much the more skilled fighter, running away with the fight over the three rounds by constantly landing damage and some takedowns. Very solid performance from Tucker. 

Tecia Torres never finishes anyone... well she did this time, absolutely dominant first round had her inexperienced opponent quit after first round. Like I said in my preview, it is gonna be hard for her against top of the division due to her lack of range, but at present she is a tough opponent for everyone.

Chase Hooper didn't really look improved in striking. At least for him Barnett was rather hesitant to strike in volume, so the beating he took on the feet wasn't the worst. Still he was about to lose a wide decision until rolling into Barnett's feed out of desperation worked, allowing him to snatch up a heel hook. I hope Hooper takes like 12 months focusing on striking and strength training before getting back there to get beat-up, cause even if he does keep finding subs, the kind of damage he is taking is not gonna make for a long career.

My picks

I got 5 out of 9 right, not too bad, but as usual my big bets were wrong resulting in going 1.5 bets down, not to forget the 3 bets down I got for Torres finish that I will not track in my overall record. My worst pick was Jacare, being the biggest bet aside main events but getting smashed up. That's also frustrating cause my first instinct was to pick Holland, but again thinking about the fight made me convince myself Jacare's grappling would make the difference.

Same thing happened with Ferguson fight, following my initial instinct would have been correct, but I thought Ferguson is still better than people give him credit. Still, it is frustrating I got that wrong as I rated Oliveira very highly even before the fight and still did not make good of that assessment by picking him.

Aside that, can't complain too much. Moreno was value as the underdog, he almost pulled it off, Virnaroba made it a close scrap and could have easily gotten a decision on another day, and Barnett was comfortably winning his fight before that late sub, pretty good showing from such a big underdog. 

Best pick is a toss-up between Tucker and Swanson, both were underdogs and both fought well. Guess Tucker has to be the best one considering how big underdog he was and how dominant he was actually in the fight. The kind of thing that shows how much value there is in MMA betting if you only have the eye for it. 

15 fights left for the year as of writing this, still a chance to finish strong and recover the losses of last couple of events. Still think 2020 will be a losing year, though I suppose I am close to breaking even at the moment. It's just been poor since March.