UFC 256 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno

Can Moreno make it deep? Can he force grappling? I think Figueiredo has better cardio than given credit for, however, he is a power guy, so past third round Moreno will get the rounds just on volume.

Well out of the flyweight prospects in the UFC right now, perhaps Moreno is the toughest challenge for Fig. He moves very well, is hard to pin down on the ground, has fight volume and unorthodox style. Most importantly, he has never been KOd, which is most likely way of Figueiredo would win this. 

So paths to victory are pretty clear, either Fig knocks Moreno out, or Moreno tires him out for a decision win. The hard part here is that Moreno has not fought any KO threat like Fig before.

My gut and what I wrote are in disagreement again. I feel like Fig gets the KO here, but looking at the tape it looks like Moreno is very hard to hit clean and could fight the perfect style fight to wear out Figureido. Either way there is no value in betting Fig here.

Brandon Moreno via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Tony Ferguson vs. Charles Oliveira

Such a great fight. Honestly both guys are incredibly good everywhere, Tony of course had his big win streak snapped up by Gaethje, which makes him seem like he is suddenly this awful fighter, but the guy still has incredible chin and insane cardio, and has beaten pretty much all the other top fighters at lightweight. 

Justin was pretty dominant but it's not like Tony didn't also drop Justin in that fight. Small margins seem like wide margins sometimes in this game. 

As for Oliveira, he did well to beat Lee, but arguably got stuck on the bottom quite a bit in that fight. It didn't matter though cause the guy is so good at snapping up those submissions. It would be crazy if he submits Tony - not saying it's impossible, but it would blow a lot of people's minds. If that doesn't happen, it's not likely that Tony gets KOd even if he gets hit a lot, so all in all this looks like a decision fight for me.

In that, Tony's volume should favor him, and the fact Charles is so willing to drop to his back which is always bad look for winning rounds. My gut says Charles is in his prime, Tony past his and that Charles will get this but I think for the reasons I explained, my rationale will have to pick Tony. It is an unpredictable fight by it's nature since both are so offensively potent and high level everywhere.

Tony Ferguson via UD.

Confidence in winner: 2

Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba

Gonna skip the tape on Dern this time cause who would forget that terrible decision from Markos to just jump into BJJ world champs guard. That was more just Markos being bad than Dern having shown any improvement over her recent fights. We should learn much more here as she meets another grappling specialist in Jandiroba.

So we probably end up with a sloppy kickboxing match. I think they go back-and-forth on the feet, but I do think Jandiroba is bit better and ought to be considering she has lot more MMA experience. I also think Jandiroba can snatch rounds with better offensive wrestling with late takedowns without risking getting submitted. She simply has better top game than Dern and that kind of stuff matters more in MMA than pure ability to get submissions. 

Virna Jandiroba via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Jacare Souza vs. Kevin Holland

Should respect tape but come on, I am not watching that snoozefest between Jacare and Blachowicz again. Well again is kinda wrong, cause I literally fell asleep first time around, only being peripherally aware of what was going on.

Anyway guess that defeat aged pretty well for Jacare, as it was close decision and Blachowicz is now the champ. Jacare might be 41 but for sure he still isn't an easy guy to beat. Jacare has KO power and still dangerous grappling, and obviously is still in shape if the recent clips I have seen of him are anything to go by. 

Against Kevin Holland however using that KO power is unlikely, as Kevin moves very well, so it is imperative that Jacare manages to get this to the ground. Holland has been having a big year, winning 4 fights and finishing 3 of them, but it was just 15 months ago when Brendan Allen submitted him. With all due respect, Allen is nowhere near the grappler Jacare is. 

So I would think anyway. Holland has improved his grappling, but he tends to be very willing to engage in clinch and grappling, and for sure won't be easy for Jacare to handle on the ground, but with the smaller cage Jacare will be looking to walk down Holland, throw some powershots to clinch up and dominate this fight on the ground.

Holland has some finishes this year so obviously has some power, but this is also a guy who just last year went to a decision against Meerschaert, so I am not really that worried unless Jacare's suddenly shows up looking the full 41 years of age into this fight. He has only been KOd by a headkick in recent times so I don't think durability is an issue. 

Which means that Holland needs to put in a master class of movement, stamina and counterstriking to keep Jacare off him in a small cage. He might do it, but I would be surprised. I like Jacare in this spot. Still, except him to be taking shots going in and expect Holland to do pretty good job at scrambling into better positions. Should be a close fight and potential to be a war for sure, if Jacare doesn't really put pressure on Holland he will get picked apart.

Jacare Souza via split decision.

Confidence in winner: 3

Junior dos Santos vs. Ciryl Gane

Honestly I don't think JDS has fallen off as far as people think he has. He took first round against Rozenstruik, but obviously his chin is not as sturdy as it was when he was the champ, so strong guys who throw combos like Rozenstruik and Ngannou were always gonna KO him. 

Getting KOd 6 times starts to get to the zone though where you worry about his chin just cracking at every shot. The guys he has beaten in recent times, Tuivasa, Ivanov and Lewis all have one thing in common - they aren't the most technical strikers. 

Gane is very technical, but he isn't as powerful as the guys JDS has lost to in recent times. So at least this isn't ought to be a fast finish for Gane. Gane will take his time, pick his shots, let the combinations flow, and it will be later on in the match where he will start to put the damage on JDS and the odds of the killshot presenting itself go up. 

In the end Gane should clearly be the favorite here. No breakout performances from him yet, but at the same time he has hardly given a sniff to any of his UFC opponents so far. It is a big step-up in competition, but even if JDS does well and actually starts getting better of Gane, which I think is unlikely, there is always that caveat of JDS chin not being what it used to be.

Ciryl Gane via 3rd round TKO.

Confidence in winner: 4

Cub Swanson vs. Daniel Pineda

Cub snapped his 4-fight losing skid last year by defending the takedowns of Kron Gracie and going to war. The problem just is that it has been well over a year since that fight, and he is now 37 years old. Pineda is not the highest level of competition, but still an experienced guy who has finished all his wins over a long career, though admittedly fighting much lower level of competition than Swanson - for the most part.

As an interesting parallels both of these guys are in their advancing years, both are solid grapplers and both defeated a submission expert last time around. 

When a guy is 37, there is always questions about his durability. Cub has not started getting dropped left and right, so there is no doubt in that regard, but whatever questions there is, they will be answered against Pineda, cause he hasn't seen 3rd round since 2016. He starts hard and throws heavy, so it should be a wild fight but I can't expect this to last very long. Pineda is hittable and gets cut easy, but he has also shown to be durable, but like Swanson his long career might be already starting to affect him. 

I think all in all it seems very close fight on paper. Cub is probably the technically superior striker, but Daniel likely has power and durability advantage. In decision I would tend to favor Cub. As for grappling, it seems like Pineda is better though both ought to be pretty good. Still, Cub avoided grappling with Kron like the plague, whereas Pineda didn't hesitate to stay on the mat with Burns and crush him. 

Still it is closer than odds suggest, I think there is reasonably good chance Swanson will outslick Pineda and win.

Cub Swanson via UD.

Confidence in winner: 2

Renato Moicano vs. Rafael Fiziev

Moicano's last 4 fights have all finished in under 6 minutes. So gotta say I am personally kinda in the dark as to how good he is at the moment. Veterans Aldo and KZ made short work of him, but then he turned it around against a considerably lower level talent in Hadzovic.

Well Fiziev is as highly-touted and talented as they come, at least as far as fighters with not so many pro fights come. That doeasn't matter though, as Fiziev famously is the striking coach of Tiger Muay Thai and had his real breakout performance against Diakiese last time around. Fiziev put on a striking clinic that was joy to behold. 

So there isn't much recent tape on Moicano, but it is clear from his earlier career that he can both strike and grapple very well, so he can probably be close to Fiziev on the feet, but we have to presume at least slight edge for the Russian there. Moicano therefore needs to do what he did against Hadzovic, take it down and look for submission. 

As much as Fiziev did put on vintage striking performance last time around, there were some negatives to take away too. He definitely got hit pretty hard a few times and faded especially towards the end. So even if Moicano doesn't get this to the ground, I would expect this to be close enough fight on the feet. Fiziev looks well-built to defend takedowns and has shown some grappling competence, but as is always said, there is levels to this game, and he definitely has not faced a grappler as good as Moicano is. 

Could go either way really. It's just not a good look for Moicano to have been finished in half of his last 6 fights.

Rafael Fiziev via UD.

Confidence in winner: 2

Billy Quarantillo vs. Gavin Tucker

Quarantillo has been beating power guys with same style in his UFC career so far - take them to the deep waters and make them bend. That seems like it would be very hard thing to do to Gavin Tucker, who is 3-1 in UFC and has seen 3rd round in all of those fights, losing one decision, winning another and finishing the remaining two.

Quarantillo has that stalking style that absolutely exhausts his opponents, but he is not just a pure cardio guy, he has pretty solid defense to not get caught coming in a lot and whenever his chin gets checked, he does take it well too. So most guys he faces can't KO him, and most of them will eventually wilt under pressure, you just don't take that kind of pace for 15 minutes without someone getting finished.

So this one should be pretty wild fight. Tucker has good kicks and I do think he can at least keep it close on the feet, and he has the power to KO Quarantillo as well, but even if he seems to have better stamina than Quarantillo's recent opponents, I don't think he is gonna win it if he keeps getting pressured all through the fight. So the key is to time a couple of takedowns when Quarantillo comes in and get them to be able to ride out some of the 15 minutes.

I guess in the most likely outcome is that Quarantillo makes Tucker fade, but it's pretty close to Tucker hitting some hard shots/takedowns to snatch rounds to win a decision or a finish himself.

Gavin Tucker via split decision

Confidence in winner: 2

Tecia Torres vs. Sam Hughes

I did have one bet on this one to go over 1.5 rounds, I won't track that like I have tracked my correct/wrong picks and profits, but my plan is to start making picks on over/unders for 2021 to add another element to the predictions. (EDIT: Well the stupid line has been changed to more reasonable odds, think that's some bullshit but whatever) Anyway that bet was just for silly almost even money line, despite the fact Torres has only had one finish in her entire career. 

Obviously Hughes has more finishes on her record, but she also has never faced anyone with more than 8 pro fights on her record. So big step-up in competition for her here. 

Before beating another tiny fighter in Brianna van Buren, Torres was slumping on a four fight losing streak. Then again it was too soon to count her out for she had faced absolute murderer's row during those four fights. Against Van Buren Torres showed that she is still a high level fighter - at least as far as women's strawweights go. 

What makes Torres good is that she is pretty solid everywhere. She is fast, good at moving, high volume, good clincher, tough to take down and tough to finish in grappling. Her only weakness and probably what ultimately makes her unable to compete at championship level is her lack of size and power - being 5'1 is bad enough, but it's also coupled with absolutely tiny 60,5 inch reach. 

That's the big advantage Hughes will have here, she seems to be far more the athletic girl of the two, and she seems to like to use her athleticism by striking into clinch and grinding you down, getting takedowns and looking for finish. It's an exhausting style to apply on 6 days notice, particularly against someone who is good at moving and has good takedown defence as Torres has.

So only way this finishes fast is if Hughes sprints out immediately trying to blitz Torres for a finish and gets it, or Hughes gasses so completely that Torres gets an easy finish of her gassed out. Doesn't seem that likely - more likely that it becomes a grinding match where Torres tries to keep a high pace and probably loses the first round due to Hughes' superior physicality, but takes over with her volume as the fight progresses. 

All in all it could be a close fight, but I still fully expect Torres to be too solid here to lose.

Tecia Torres via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Chase Hooper vs. Peter Barnett

Hooper was taught a lesson by Caceres that he really needs to learn some more striking and that he needs better offensive wrestling to get to ground where he obviously excels. Hooper is still only 21 of course and will surely show up improved to this match, but his defense is in particular interesting to look at. If he keeps sponging up damage like he did last time around, he is not gonna have a very long career.

Either way 6 months is plenty of time to train and improve. Barnett is one of the Contender newcomers, having lost his UFC debut against Youssuf Zalal in August.

I have seen people tipping Barnett for this fight because he tends to end up in the clinch... but I am not sure if that would be true for this fight. Sure, you don't completely change your fighting style, but for sure you are gonna fight completely differently against fleetfooted striker like Zalal vs. a grappler like Hooper. Barnett had to get close to strike with Zalal, but with Hooper he will sit back and look to counter as Hooper needs to close the distance. 

On top of that, I don't think Hooper is that crazy good in the clinch. Not saying he isn't a good clinch fighter, but he is definitely not so dominant there that it is an immediate disaster if he gets hold of you. It will still be some way off from getting grounded where Hooper would really shine.

If this becomes a striking match, I don't think Hooper lasts long cause Barnett is both powerful and durable and like I said, Hooper really doesn't have much defense. Obviously if Hooper manages to clinch a lot as some predict, and make it into a grappling match, it's just as one sided. 

I guess I still lean on Hooper getting the back and choking Barnett out being bit more likely than Barnett starching Hooper on the feet. I mean Hooper gets hit with everything, but so far he has never been finished no matter how hard he has been hit. That's the key really - you can take a clean shot and keep standing, but having a BJJ guy like Hooper with hooks in on your back is almost a certain finish.

Still, at those odds I rather take a long-shot punt at Barnett than risk with someone as hittable as Hooper.

Peter Barnett via 2nd round KO.

Confidence in winner: 1