UFC Fight Night 183 Post-Fight Analysis

Tonight's event wraps up a tough year for me in terms of picks, and it wraps it up with a sizeable loss. Not to mention it's successive losing events now. Gotta be honest, it's the kind of stuff that makes me feel like quitting, but then what? I still would be training fighting and watching fights, and the idea of not being a gambling degenerate while at it feels... alien. So will see about that, anyway let's try to figure out what went so wrong again.

Main Card

The Main Event was one of those fights that seem so obvious in hindsight... and I mean it kinda was? I am even confused why I picked Neal... I mean I suppose I figured Neal has bit better technical ability and power than Luque had, and Thompson is that much older now? Still, banking on the off chance of Thompson's chin not being there any more is obviously never gonna be a winning play at even money. 

So I don't know. I guess that's been the theme, just not seeing the big picture clearly. This was just a typical Wonderboy fight, and as such, easy to predict, Thompson will run away with the decision unless he gets a fluke KO loss or poor decision. Those two outcomes combined won't make up 50 %, so I just made a poor choice.

Co-Main was one of the few bright spots of the night for me. I overbet Aldo after seeing how deep loss I was running after the earlier night, and had to sweat out a close decision, but Aldo pretty clearly got 1st and 3rd rounds to win the fight. Smart fighting to just wrap up Vera in the 3rd to seal the round when Aldo was starting to fade. 

Aldo is still a fun fighter to see, but it is worrying that he really seems to have only 1.5 rounds of gas tank if you really push him. 

Khaos Williams and Michel Pereira duked it out to a close decision that Pereira managed to grab. That one could have gone either way, can't blame myself for picking Khaos there. Pereira didn't exactly dominate, it was a very low volume fight that was there to be one with just couple of flurries at right times. 

Is Marlon Moraes chin forever gone now? Who knows but getting finished back to back is not a good look. Especially since Font didn't land particularly huge shots to wobble him. Then again it could be down to the fast turnaround, but it's certainly starting to seem Moraes is washing out. I guess I should have considered the durability issues more. Then again Moraes started the fight well, Font was just willing to go to war and see whose chin lasts.

I wanted to pick Tybura against Hardy, but somehow convinced myself that Hardy being so big, strong, and athletically talented will mean that he can easily deal with Tybura's grappling attempts. Such wasn't the case, as Hardy had almost no defence once Tybura got him to the floor and finished him. Takes definitely much more than some size and athleticism to make it to the highest level in MMA. 

Prelims

Pettis was another one of the little sparks of joy for my evening. He showed that while he is no longer the elite fighter, he can still get by a journeyman like Morono and was even close to getting a late KO.

Eubanks and Kianzad had a close fight as well. Sarj started exactly as I predicted, getting takedown and top controlling the round, but did not manage to do same in the 2nd which cost her the close decision. 

Winn v Arroyo is one of the contenders for the goofiest fight of the year. Arroyo put in an awful performance, no takedown defence whatsoever, but Winn wasn't much better, scoring takedowns but hardly securing top control or getting GnP going. Still, Winn did enough to warrant a decision, but hard to pick him against almost any middleweight. Then again, maybe they should throw John Phillips at him to make him look like a world beater. 

If you told me beforehand that Taila Santos and Gillian Robertson would have a grappling only match, I would have thought well Robertson wins for sure... but shows what I know, Santos dominated the match on the ground, bravely going into Robertson's strength and defeating her there. Dominant performance, Santos is showing very well-rounded game and will continue to climb the rankings.

Jamie Pickett did not manage to really dominate Nchukwi from range, so the guy build like a brick wall just kept walking him down and powershot him to a decision win. Nchukwi has pretty good cardio to go with his strength, he didn't seem to get tired despite getting extended. Still, as powerful as he seems he hardly seems a world beater at this point, Pickett could have won the fight with better execution.

Cody Durden laid a beating on Jimmy Flick for half a round, but then Flick jumped straight into a triangle and submitted him. I don't hate my pick, but Flick is always gonna be a live dog because of his submission ability.

The night started with Giagos dominating Minus for two rounds, then gassing pretty hard and surviving to a decision victory. The guy just doesn't have gas for 3 hard rounds. 

My picks

As stated, I ended up getting 4 out of 12 picks right for about 6 bets lose. Big loss again, I have to tabulate all the recent events into my tracking to see where I am in the long term, but pretty sure I took a sizeable loss in 2020, but 2019 was such a big win that overall I might still be winning. Still, all-time is probably just barely scraping above break even. 

Best pick was Aldo... kinda. I mean it was more of a desperation overbet than anything. Out of the picks I got right before that, I am happiest about Santos, but even there I got the pick right for the wrong reasons. Better to be lucky than good I suppose.

Worst pick was definitely Neal. I don't know what I was thinking. Hardy was another contender for that one but at least he had very solid first round, Neal hardly got anything done in 5 rounds against Wonderboy. 

There's few weeks to rethink how I approach my picks next year. Like I said, even some thoughts of quitting have entered in my mind, but I don't think I will do it. How can I quit when I still have bankroll left? At least go bust before thinking about that. Perhaps after few weeks without fights I will feel the excitement to go at it again, will see.