UFC Fight Night 183 Preview & Predictions

 I was looking at the event earlier on the week thinking I have to start writing the previews well in advance, a big card ahead... but Covid did it's thing and the card trimmed down into normal size. Last chance to end the year on a winning note. The few week break after this will probably do good for me, sometimes I feel like there's fights coming out of my eyes and ears with all the previews I have written over the course of the year.

Main Event: Stephen Thompson vs. Geoff Neal

Everyone sleeps on Wonderboy. He is getting up there in age, but still completely outslicked Vicente Luque, one of the most dangerous guys in the division, in his last outing. His recent record looks a little ugly due to a fluke KO loss to Pettis and getting fucked in a decision against Till, but make no mistake, Wonderboy is elite.

So is Neal though, and Neal will be helped here by the small cage which will limit Wonderboy's movement a little. Another thing working into his favor is the fact that Wonderboy is getting up there in age. It was evident that Luque had some shots that affected him more than they would have couple of years ago. 

Neal has also won every single UFC match he has fought, and most of them by finish too, so he has power. He should have power and wrestling advantage here, and it probably would work into his favor to force the clinch as much as possible. Hard to back against a guy who has not lost since 2017 loss to Kevin Holland though. 

Still, it's a big step-up in competition for Neal. Perry and Price are dangerous guys, but they aren't the most technical, and it does not get any more technical than Wonderboy. Still, Thompson gets hit in the exchanges and Neal should be able to force them thanks to the small cage. I like Thompson so I hope I am wrong, but think Neal gets this. The longer the fight goes on though should work to Thompson's advantage.

Geoff Neal via 3rd round submission.

Confidence in winner: 2

Co-Main Event: Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera

Aldo has on paper 3 fight losing skid, but what a murderer's row it has been - current FW champ, split against Moraes that many thought Aldo won, then the current BW champ. Aldo dominated Yan early on, but eventually youth perservered and Yan adjusted well to eventually finish Aldo. 

Aldo took a lot of unnecessary punishment in that fight, which hopefully doesn't compromise his performance here. 

Vera obviously got a high-profile win last time around against Sean O'Malley. Aldo should be bit tougher to finish though than a few leg kicks. 

I like both guys and rate Vera very highly, but Aldo is still one of the GOATs of the sport and it has not looked like he is faded and old even if he has taken losses. Usually he has been beaten via volume, which can happen here too as Vera likes to put a pace on guys, but it is only a 3 round fight and Aldo only needs to get the first two. Vera generally gets fucked over in decisions so even if he manages to make it close, I think Aldo has this by winning first two rounds.

Jose Aldo via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Michel Pereira vs. Kalinn Williams

Well in his last fight against Imadaev Pereira finally showed that he can be a solid, effective fighter and not just crazy showman. As for Williams, you can watch his entire UFC career in barely a minute.

I don't know. Williams has the reach here, is obviously very powerful, but is still also something of an unknown quantity because of his short fights in the UFC. Still, I would feel bad to back against him and have the fight end in 30 seconds again.

Pereira should be much harder to find than Morono and Alhassan were, and also has power so this one could go either way. I do think that from what little we have seen of Williams, he should be at least pretty good fighter.

Well, Pereira has been KOd before, but by a KO in a weight class above... Still all the reach advantage and power make me lean on Williams getting this.

Kalinn Williams via 1st round KO

Confidence in winner: 2

Marlon Moraes vs. Rob Font

It's too early to count Moraes out after only two losses in recent times and both of them coming against the highest level of opposition in Sandhagen and champ Cejudo, but you kinda start to feel Moraes has been figured out. Just put pressure and avoid those big kicks, Moraes will fade. I don't think Font will do much to avoid those kicks, but he can certainly put pressure on Moraes. 

So again I am pretty 50/50 about this. Font might be able to put his pressure on Moraes and make him wear out in the boxing range, maybe with the occasional takedown too, but at the same time Font gets hurt often so it's reasonably good chance that Moraes lands something solid early and Moraes is the kind of guy that if he has you hurt, you are very likely to get finished.

Marlon Moraes via 2nd round KO

Confidence in winner: 2

Marcin Tybura vs. Greg Hardy

Tybura is riding high, running a 3 win streak, but he has been KOd 4 times already in his career and won the previous match more for Rothwell gassing than him being so good. Still, he has that same way of winning this match by grinding out Hardy, but Hardy is a powerhouse and a big man. After getting decisioned by Volkov, Hardy has also notched up couple of wins in a row, KOing Greene last time around. 

Figure Tybura has to weather some storm to win this fight, but it's certainly possible he can make it a grinding fight. At the same time, Hardy might just land that big shot and win the fight. He is strong enough to avoid just getting wrestlefucked all through the fight, but if Tybura can push a pace on him he can still get tired.

It's fast finish or grinding decision most likely, though I do suppose it could also be a close decision if Tybura survives getting hurt early on.

Hardy via 1st round KO.

Confidence in winner: 2

Anthony Pettis vs. Alex Morono

Tough fight to predict, cause Pettis obviously is no longer the guy he used to be, but you can't completely discount him either and it is not like he has started to get KOd left and right. On the other hand Morono is not great. Good enough to be in UFC, but never any kind of contender really. 

Beating UFC newcomer Rhys McKee doesn't really suggest to us Morono is great either. As for Pettis, his last performance wasn't great either, squeaking by aged and battered Cowboy.

Still, it's Cowboy, battered or not it was a technical fight that Pettis was edging, which suggest to me he is still very high level ultimately. If he can avoid getting pressured and worn down by Morono, he should be able to land enough shots to win this fight. He might even get a KO here, Morono has been KOd couple of times and is hittable, even McKee caught him with some shorts.

Anthony Pettis via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Sijara Eubanks vs. Pannie Kianzad

Ought to be pretty close fight on the feet if it stays there, but I actually think Sijara will grab some takedowns to win rounds, just standing and trading she is too liable to get gassed. Sure, last time around she got outgrappled, but by a much better grappler than Kianzad. I think Eubanks can grab takedowns and hold Kianzad down here.

Sijara Eubanks via UD.

Confidence in winner: 4

Deron Winn vs. Antonio Arroyo

Weird fight incoming. Big reach advantage here for Arroyo. So striking here is an afterthought, especially when Arroyo is more of a kickboxer. Winn has that short wrestler's build and he indeed is more of a wrestling specialist. 

Still, Winn faced easiest guy to take down in Gerald Meerschaert last time around and only managed one brief takedown while getting picked apart from range. Arroyo got taken down couple of times but generally fared well in grappling against Muniz, who is a bigger submission threat on the ground. So I think low chance of Arroyo getting finished on the ground here, and on the outside he will be absolutely feasting on Winn.

All in all I just don't think Winn has the frame to be an UFC fighter. 

Antonio Arroyo via 2nd round TKO.

Confidence in winner: 4

Gillian Robertson vs. Taila Santos

This is a quick one, Robertson drowns Santos with her grappling, or Santos destroys Robertson with her striking. Very little middle ground here. All in all I feel like Santos just has the bigger advantage on the feet here. Every fight starts on the feet, she has 5 inch reach advantage and for sure has worked on her takedown defence. Even if she does get grappled at some point, I expect her to be able to survive and disengage.

Taila Santos via 3rd round TKO.

Confidence in winner: 3

Tafon Nchukwi vs. Jamie Pickett

Nchukwi only has four pro fights, which makes picking for him uncertain in any case. He is the bigger guy though against the more experienced Pickett and has finished everyone he has faced within 1.5 rounds. Both guys are newcomers from the Contender series.

Nchukwi is a solid striker with obviously a lot of power, but he does tend to be a little low volume, though when his opponent in the Contender tired, he did go to a higher gear to take advantage. As for Pickett, he might be overall the smaller man but built long so he can use his range and good movement here. 

It kinda has the look of a fight where Pickett is winning until he no longer isn't - he has the range, footwork and volume over Nchukwi, but Nchukwi can put your lights out at any moment. I also would expect Pickett to put Nchukwi's takedown defence to the test at some point of the fight. 

All in all pretty clear, Nchuwki wins by KO or Pickett grinds out decision with outside striking, clinch and takedowns. I think the latter is a good value here, especially since there is some chance that Pickett lands some powerful combo to get a finish as well.

Jamie Pickett via UD.

Confidence in winner: 4

Jimmy Flick vs. Cody Durden

I wrote this already couple of weeks ago, here's the old preview:

Durden debuted back in August in a rare draw against Chris Gutierrez, Flick is making his debut after a successful Contender appearance. Flick's career has been pretty much sub or bust, and worryingly he has already been KOd four times - a statistic you would expect from a heavyweight, not from a guy in a small weight division.

The mentioned Gutierrez was one of the guys who KOd Flick, so MMA math suggests Durden has the advantage here. Durden isn't the biggest power guy, but he does have some power, and is on an 8-fight undefeated streak. 

Obviously Flick can win this if he can just force his grappling, so it's a fight where you have to clearly see both guys as having paths to victory, however Durden ought to be able to stop most of the takedowns and has potential to put a real hurting on Flick in this fight. Anything might happen but I would have to get pretty decent odds to pick Flick here.

Durden via 2nd round KO

Confidence in winner: 3

Christos Giagos vs. Carlton Minus

Giagos actually has some pretty high level experience, and results haven't gone too bad for him either for the most part. He did gas pretty hard against Klose after a good start, but still squeezed a lot of volume out of himself in the final round of that fight.

He should be comfortably better than Minus here, so Minus will have to push the pace to look for Giagos to gas out again. He has reasonably big 3.5 inch reach advantage to help him in that, so it is not like Minus does not have any chance here, but Giagos should still be better in pretty much every range, even if I don't think Minus is that bad of a fighter.

Christos Giagos via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3