UFC on ESPN 19 Post-Fight Analysis

The latest UFC card was... decent. We had a bad KO, couple of wars, no fights that were too bad. So even with some last minute cancellations, everything turned out to be entertaining.

Main Card

Jack Hermansson and Marvin Vettori went to a war, that was mostly a stand-up affair where both exchanged steadily all through the five rounds. The fight being almost solely stand-up worked in Vettori's favor, although Hermansson had a little surge to win round 3, he still lost all the other rounds comfortable and got rocked early on. Vettori seemed to be fading in that middle round, but toughed it out despite it being clear he had taken some damage in the fight.

Either way Vettori is pretty much the top contender in the division and seems to be the only one who could challenge Adesanya. They already fought to a close decision of course, and both have improved since then, so perhaps the time for a 5-round rematch is soon. Certainly would appeal to me much more than Adesanya rematching with Whittaker.

In the Co-Main I felt Hill would comfortably win, but still picked OSP based on experience. OSP indeed started well, hacking Hill's lead leg down, but perplexing decision to go to orthodox proves OSP's demise as he took a barrage of shots and got finished. Again goes to show I should more often go with my first instinct.

Gabriel Benitez v Justin Jaynes was a 50/50 fight where I initially thought Jaynes would hurt his opponent again in the first round and get the win, but luckily ended up changing my pick to Benitez and it worked out. Benitez did eat some hard shots and despite the fight not going long, had some damage, but it was he who finished Jaynes in the first and not vice versa. Fun fight while it lasted.

John Allan was my big pick for the night but it did not work out, but I don't feel too bad for my pick. Allan was competent everywhere, but step behind Dolidze, and Allan being so game opponent allowed Dolidze to show more of his skills. Dolidze kept up with Allan all through the fight, had him hurt and threatened submissions. Good job on him to remain unbeaten.

The main card started with a vicious slam KO. I still feel like Matt Wiman could have done without that KO, he should have been cut from UFC, he never stood a chance. I wrote that hopefully Leavitt as a grappler will just gently submit him, but no, he was knocked out cold for couple of minutes after getting his head violently slammed on the floor. Hopefully they wake up and cut him so the man can save his brains for life after retirement.

Prelims

We had very short prelims this time, only 3 fights thanks to the cancellations. Jose Alberto Quinonez looked sharp in the first round, putting a lot of damage on Louis Smolka. After a rough start though Smolka started finding his own combinations more and more and eventually the pressure told, with Smolka ending up on top to GnP Quinonez into TKO.

Ilia Topuria is the real deal, putting together fast, sharp combinations against Damon Jackson that set up a brutal KO only halfway the first round. Topuria might have lost his 100 % finish rate last time, but he stays undefeated and is a big finishing threat even against high level competition. Guaranteed violence with this kid, and he is still so young that he can still improve a ton from the current level. 

Jake Collier proved me wrong, he might have gotten fat but he is not completely out of shape or having lost his skills. Then again being more skillful than Gian Villante is not saying much... but still, good win for Collier and just goes to show how good his last opponent was to make finishing him seem so easy.

My picks

Got exactly half of my picks right, which on paper doesn't seem too bad, but as my big picks Hermansson and Allan were the wrong reads, I ended up taking a sizable 3 bet beating today. Worst pick is easy this time, Villante, who looked like himself but wasn't good enough for Collier, so obviously a bad read, Collier would have been great value there. Best pick is harder cause only small bets hit and usually for major favorites too. I also can't say Benitez was my best pick cause I was gonna pick Jaynes initially, so I was just lucky to change my mind last second.

So I guess it has to be Smolka, whom I had already picked few weeks ago when the fight was initially scheduled.

All in all a pretty rough run for me continues, probably like 1.5 bets down total last 5 events or so. Again doesn't sound too bad, but considering I had 8 bet biggest win of all time during that run, I should be doing better. We have two events left to finish the year strong, so better make sure to make it back-to-back win to improve my record.