UFC on ESPN 19 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori

Just like the co-main, I don't really feel confident either way. I like Vettori, he is one of my favorite fighters to watch, and he can definitely put the striking on Hermansson, but Hermansson is long and has very good grappling, which makes me think he will get this to the ground early. That being said, Vettori is very tough to finish so Hermansson would do well to even get the rounds via top control. 

Grappling experts have generally posed some problems for Vettori. Although he has never been finished, Akhmedov took him to a draw and Antonio Carlos Jr. got a decision against him. Hermansson is in a way more offensively potent grappler than those two, being very good at top control and dangerous with submissions as well, as we saw against Gastelum. 

As much as you might value Vettori's grappling, I feel like Hermansson has subbed or dominated on the ground better grapplers than Vettori. Besides, Vettori is a last minute replacement. I figure he did have some notice though since he is deemed the favorite here, but I am gonna go against him in this one.

Jack Hermansson via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Ovince St. Preux vs. Jamahal Hill

Hill is a notable prospect in the light heavyweight division, but this is a big step-up for him. OSP is such a weird fighter to predict though, since on his best day, he fights a close decision with the GOAT, but on his worst day, just looks completely awful. Either way, he is extremely hard to put away which always makes him a live dog. 

This is similar to St. Preux's last fight in that he is fighting a powerful but inexperienced opponent. Hill is much more technical and intelligent fighter than Menifield, and far less reliant on just power. So all-in all I kind of feel like Hill should be able to cruise to victory here, but obviously we have never seen the guy face someone with the experience and capabilities of Ovince - certainly it is a rare situation for him to be at the wrong end of the range equation. 

So honestly no matter what you think, you can't pick Hill here with any confidence, and just by his nature you can't pick OSP here with any confidence. Either Hill gets found out to not be nowhere near ready to face this level of competition, or he breaks out as a legit star in the division. It is pretty hard to know which is the case here.

OSP via 3rd round submission

Confidence in winner: 2

Gabriel Benitez vs. Justin Jaynes

Looks very close fight on paper. Both are pretty solid strikers but also have won plenty of matches via submissions. Both also have tendency to fade as the fight goes on, but I would give a slight advantage to Benitez in that regard. Jaynes on the other hand seems to have the durability advantage, having never been KOd. 

Grappling could be the difference maker, but we haven't seen much grappling from either in recent times. Well a little bit from Jaynes last match, so perhaps Jaynes is the more likely to pursue that route. 

Either way I look at this match-up and feel like there isn't a clear favorite here. Jaynes does pack more punch and Benitez is a little bit chinny, but Benitez probably will have more left if fight goes deep. I always pick these 50/50 picks wrong.

Gabriel Benitez via UD.

Confidence in winner: 2

Taila Santos vs. Montana De La Rosa

Should be pretty close fight on paper looking at the history, but it would seem like Santos has a pretty big skill advantage. She is similar fighter to Viviane Araujo, solid striker, good in the clinch, and has rounded out her game with some decent grappling as well. De La Rosa is a bit limited on the feet but doesn't really have that great takedown offense to force her decent grappling. 

So in all likelihood Santos takes note of Araujo's approach and kicks the shit out of De La Rosa's heavy lead leg. De La Rosa might have improved her striking - I mean you think anyone would after a beating such as the one she took - but it probably won't be enough to bridge the gap. Guess there is some chance De La Rosa gets couple of takedowns and top controls her way to close decision, but major portion of her chance to win this is to snatch a submission at some point of the fight.

I just don't see Santos being susceptible to that, considering she has never been finished and her career's only loss was a tight split decision.

Taila Santos via UD.

Confidence in winner: 4

Roman Dolidze vs. John Allan

Interesting fight. Dolidze ought to be strong grappler, but we didn't really see for it as he debuted against one of the worst fighters in UFC and got the win via headkick KO. Allan should be much tougher test, for he is heavy-handed on the feet but can also win rounds by top control. He can also keep a relatively high pace, as we saw in the war against Mike Rodriguez. 

That makes me lean towards Allan winning this. Dolidze is undefeated but still pretty green in MMA, and although he got the KO nothing about his striking impressed me too much in that first fight. Now obviously it would seem on paper he can get the win here by submission and he definitely has the power to get the KO, but Dolidze also seems bit too willing for MMA to just be on his back and in the little we saw against Khadis, he isn't exactly high volume guy. 

So it would seem Allan just is more likely win a decision and has very good chance to get KO. Looking to me like Dolidze's 0 is about to go.

John Allan via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Nate Landwehr vs. Movsar Evloev

By all reason I should like Landwehr with his style that just wants to scrap and being a crazy guy with little defense... but something about him just rubs me the wrong way. Either way, the undefeated Evloev should be a too tough of a match-up for him. 

Evloev is one of the best prospects of the division and has put in three solid UFC performances so far. He ought use more grappling here, as Landwehr can hit hard and in a stand-up fight might have a chance, but either way Evloev is solid on the feet and has very good wrestling, so only thing taking the win from here is a freak KO.

The odds are stupid here so if you are bettor looking for value, you ain't gonna find any unless you go for the Landwehr KO. Even so I  won't change my pick.

Movsar Evloev via UD.

Confidence in winner: 4

Louis Smolka vs. Jose Alberto Quinonez

I wrote this preview couple of weeks ago, copypasted:

"Both guys got finished in the first round last time around, Quinonez of course in more devastating fashion. Smolka should be the better guy on paper, but on the other hand his biggest wins are down at flyweight and he missed weight so one has to wonder if he shows up here looking his best. 

I don't think there's big enough difference on the feet here that we would see a KO. I mean both are a little chinny so take that with a grain of salt, but it seems Smolka's better grappling would be the difference maker in this fight. If it becomes a striking match it could really go either way, back and forth with both throwing a lot of volume. However if Smolka starts losing, he always has that option to start to work the grappling, whereas I don't feel like Quinonez really has that. So yea, despite the caveats, I would go for Smolka here."

Louis Smolka via UD.

Confidence in winner: 3

Matt Wiman vs. Jordan Leavitt

Wiman came back after 5 years away last year and got utterly dominated twice in a row... so to say the least, I am shocked to see him still get another chance in the UFC. It's hard to say if he has declined or what, cause lets face it, it was a whole different ballgame in 2013-14 when he was still somewhat competitive. So he does not need to be declined to get utterly dominated today, just stayed the same.

Either way the performances against Solecki and Pena were absolutely awful, worse than just guy who gets old and loses his chin and gets dropped easily - he just did not look competitive anywhere and got absolutely smashed for three rounds in both fights. So especially if Wiman gets dominated here again, I would think this is criminal that UFC even allows him to compete against guys who are way out of his league.

Now at least Leavitt is a newcomer and seems to be predominantly a grappler, so Wiman ought to not take too much damage, hopefully just submitted early. 

Leavitt looks a little rough on the feet, but likely will just immediately pursue grappling, top control and submissions. This ought to not be very competitive and should look like Wiman's last two fights, even if Leavitt isn't as good as Pena or Solecki.

Jordan Leavitt via 1st round submission.

Confidence in winner: 5

Jimmy Flick vs. Cody Durden

Durden debuted back in August in a rare draw against Chris Gutierrez, Flick is making his debut after a successful Contender appearance. Flick's career has been pretty much sub or bust, and worryingly he has already been KOd four times - a statistic you would expect from a heavyweight, not from a guy in a small weight division.

The mentioned Gutierrez was one of the guys who KOd Flick, so MMA math suggests Durden has the advantage here. Durden isn't the biggest power guy, but he does have some power, and is on an 8-fight undefeated streak. 

Obviously Flick can win this if he can just force his grappling, so it's a fight where you have to clearly see both guys as having paths to victory, however Durden ought to be able to stop most of the takedowns and has potential to put a real hurting on Flick in this fight. Anything might happen but I would have to get pretty decent odds to pick Flick here.

Durden via 2nd round KO

Confidence in winner: 3

Damon Jackson vs. Ilia Topuria

Jackson really gutted it out against Bektic in his debut, getting dominated for two rounds to find Bektic tired in the third. Jackson has excellent grappling but it was his stamina that made the difference in that match. This is a fight of two grappling specialists, for Topuria is really known for his offensive grappling, only having to go to a decision for first time in his career against Zalal in his UFC debut.

So both newcomers had pretty tough debuts and both are grapplers, but aside that they are pretty contrasting fighters. Jackson has lot of experience and is already 32, whereas Topuria is still very much developing fighter at only 23 with this being his 10th pro fight. 

Either way this should be hell of a fight cause both guys love non-stop submission attack and have excellent endurance. Topuria is probably the better striker and offensive wrestler, as well as having better top control, so that makes me lean towards him, but you can't count Jackson out of this, after all Bektic arguably was a tougher match-up and Jackson found a win in it.

Ilia Topuria via 3rd round TKO.

Confidence in winner: 3

Gian Villante vs. Jake Collier

Jake "The Prototype" Collier. The Prototype of a McDonald's customer if you ask me. It's really kinda embarrassing match-up, kinda surprised UFC even puts it up to be honest, both of these fat guys should perhaps be cut. Either way, at least Villante looks something like a UFC fighter still, whereas Collier just doesn't look like he has trained in a while. 

Also we have a fat and ballooned up light heavyweight against a really fat and balloned up middleweight. All-in all everything points to Villante's favor, but it's more betting against Collier than betting for Villante.

Gian Villante via 1st round KO.

Confidence in winner: 4