UFC 257 Post-Fight Analysis

Man, UFC 257 delivered big time. Massive finishes in both main events and pretty solid action all through the card. 

Main Card 

Conor was supposed to knock Dustin out easily. Okay, Dustin has more durability, but how many shots can a guy take? He definitely took some shots and was hurt multiple times in that first round... but he persevered and sure enough it took Conor only 6 minutes to completely fade.

I feel frustrated I didn't give Dustin more of a chance in the match-up. Sure, everyone knew if he could extend the fight, that he could win. What I missed was something I even thought about - it was southpaw vs. southpaw so the leg kick was more available. I didn't even write it up though even though it was in my mind, let alone allow Dustin a more chance in my mind to beat up Conor's leg.

It was always gonna eventually happen, Conor getting hacked with leg kicks. Wide stance with boxing style heavy lead leg was just begging to be kicked to smithereens.

I guess in the end we all got caught up with the hype. When almost everyone thinks fight is gonna go certain way, that is when people get punished for thinking this game is too simple. I should have been brave and gone against the grain, but I didn't, so I deserved to take a beating in bets.

In the co-main I faded Chandler and was wrong again. Though he did look to be behind Hooker, but it doesn't matter when you pulverize the guy with one shot. Underestimated the power this guy packs, and perhaps the wars Hooker had took some toll on him as well.

At least Joanne Calderwood beat Jessica Eye like I expected her in close and sloppy but violent fight. Makhmud Muradov was another right read - he comfortably controlled the fight all through, until Sanchez started trying to force the action more. Muradov finally got the opening and knocked him out.

Another great knockout was Marina Rodriguez flatlining Amanda Ribas. Unfortunately the fight was shadowed by terrible refereeing. Herb Dean was a bit out of his element today again. After controlling the first round, Ribas got badly hurt in the second and Dean stepped in... only to change his mind after already stepping between the fighters. Rodriguez was understandably thinking fight was over and celebrated for few seconds before realizing Herb actually wanted them to still continue.

Luckily this fuck-up did not alter the outcome as Rodriguez promptly knocked Ribas out again. Great victory for Rodriguez and underdog pickers were right, but I still think Ribas UD's that fight high percentage of the time. 

Prelims 

Matt Frevola was game against Arman Tsarukyan, but was just outmatched in all ranges. He did manage to make Tsarukyan fatigue a little towards the end, but not in a way that was slowing him down in any way. Arman still got all the three rounds comfortably. I would still say both of them raised their stock based on this fight.

Brad Tavares would have been the obvious pick for his fight against Antonio Carlos Jr. but guess I fell victim to the recency bias. All the signs were there beforehand that he would be a nightmare match-up for Carlos who failed to take him down and took a beating on the feet on route to losing a decision.

Sara McMann and Julianna Pena has a pretty boring match. It was gonna be a close decision as I predicted, but then Pena pulled off a late sub to seal the win.

Marchin Prachnio somehow survived to a decision with Khalil Roundtree and won based on volume. Roundtree had Prachnio hurt couple of times as you would expect when someone as powerful as Roundtree meets someone as chinny as Prachnio but... I don't know, there was just no killer instinct and urgency to go for the finish when he got the guy hurt. I guess I just always thought Khalil will eventually put it together for great performance but this is a new low.

Movsar Evloev dominated Nik Lentz in a fight that saw the worst scorecard of the night... so we got a split decision. Night started promisingly for me as Amir Albazi comfortably outclassed Zhalgas Zhumagulov. 

My picks 

Was the Conor KO the worst pick of the night? It kinda stings the most cause picking Dustin would have turned the whole night around. As I only got 5 out of 11 right, it was always gonna be a rough night, but as it was, I took a beating of 5.5 bets.

I guess I have to pick Conor indeed as the worst pick even though I still think Conor via KO was the likeliest outcome. Dustin still seems value in hindsight and getting him at those odds would have been tremendous. My other big bet, Hooker, was not so bad cause at least he wasn't as big of a favorite.

Best pick was probably Muradov, but all the picks I got right were fairly obvious and thus low reward.

Rough start to the year, all losing events. I guess today reinforced the lesson that if the odds are very wide and you can see a path to victory for the underdog, you should pick the underdog even if you think the favorite wins high percentage of the time.

Makes a guy wonder if I can even get a profit out of this. I had solid if unspectacular 10 % ROI for the first year or so of previews, but since then it has been steady losses, which kinda doesn't make sense cause aren't I supposed to get better at this over time? Oh well. I still have plenty of bankroll left, so I guess I keep going at least until I go broke. Maybe it never happens cause I finally turn it around. I still have a lot to learn, regardless.