UFC 257 Preview & Predictions

Back to regular programming for the third event of the year, no guesses on how long the fights go, I figure that has much larger variance.

Main Event: Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier

Yea I would love to see Diamond win here, but Conor has been rightly made a massive favorite here. Dustin will give Conor exactly the fight Conor wants, and Conor hits hard and is the better striker. Dustin is too hittable and although his durability has vastly improved since their first meeting, there is only so much the skull can take. 

If we presume that we will see the best version of Conor ever here, then Conor is a no-brainer pick. Very high percentage of the time he will score a fast KO or at least get Dustin out of there before second round ends. As for rest of the time, very high percentage of the time he hurts Dustin so bad early he is compromised for remainder of the fight. So even five round decision is not an easy pick to make for Dustin.

Sure, Conor gasses, but he doesn't gas so bad if you can't constantly pressure him. If Conor keeps hurting Dustin often as he enters, his pressure will either fade or he will get KOd. 

So yeah, I heavily favor fast KO here. Obviously Dustin has some chance here to just make it ugly, try to take Conor deep, but this is a sport where our hearts get broken so I fully expect Dustin to be laying on the floor stiff pretty fast.

The moneyline is probably too wide so I will go for a prop again considering how confident I am with this pick. The only real uncertainty is if Conor is not the best version of himself. Nothing suggests it, but anything is possible.

Prediction: Conor McGregor by KO.

Confidence in winner: 4

Co-Main Event: Michael Chandler vs. Dan Hooker

Chandler is a Bellator champ and is supposed to be pretty good but... I am not impressed with what I saw on the tape. It ought to be a close fight but Hooker has a decided striking advantage here. Hooker isn't a top contender but he is very close to that after fighting to close decisions with Poirier and Felder. 

Chandler's wrestling should be enough to make it into a close fight, but he was arguably losing to old and washed up Henderson in his last fight before Henderson turned out to have no chin left any more. I think in his prime Hooker feasts on him here. Hooker has not traditionally been overwhelmed with wrestlers, and I doubt it happens this time either. 

I mean I guess Chandler can power shot his way to victory or pressure Hooker to gassing, but it's just a 3-rounder, so you would think he needs to top control to win at least two rounds and not get too hurt while getting it. So yeah clear advantage Hooker. I think if anyone wins it in dominant fashion it's Hooker.

Prediction: Dan Hooker

Confidence in winner: 4

Jessica Eye vs. Joanne Calderwood

I saw people being on Jessica Eye here... well no way I am gonna be one of those. Prime Eye probably would have had decent chance against Calderwood but still I would think Calderwood outstrikes her way to a few decisions, but the current version of Eye is awful. 

Well, I don't know. Guess I can't put too much emphasis on one fight against Calvillo. That defeat did not age too well though. The problem of course is that Calderwood isn't that great either, she was getting pretty much outstruck by Maia before getting submitted. So neither have been looking good. I do think Calderwood is more likely to win rounds by peppering from the outside and scoring trip takedowns for some top control - Eye is not the submission threat that Maia is.

Prediction: Joanne Calderwood

Confidence in winner: 2 

Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Ribas

Rodriguez has been tipped by some to be the potential underdog pick for this card. I don't really see it though. Ribas is better fighter imo than Calvillo or Esparza and those girls fought to a draw and decision win against Rodriguez. 

Ribas will fight like she always does, high volume striking and takedowns to use her dominant grappling. It is an excellent way to both win rounds and hunt for finishes. Sure, Rodriguez probably has the better striking, but Ribas could still win all-striking rounds via volume. So Rodriguez can either squeeze a close decision or KO Ribas, other than that don't see it happening, and I have to pick Ribas here as the overall superior fighter.

Prediction: Amanda Ribas

Confidence in winner: 3

Makhmud Muradov vs. Andrew Sanchez

They are building Muradov up slowly and I like that. He is pretty much meat and potatoes guy with his skill, but mean and potatoes with some power go a long way in this middleweight division. Muradov is on a 13-fight winning streak and won the first two UFC matches of his career. 

Sanchez put on an impressive KO as well in his last match against Turman, but he was getting caught with some strikes during that fight which makes me think Muradov's more solid fundamentals will have him get caught on the feet at some point. 

Obviously Sanchez is much tougher match-up for Muradov than anyone he has faced thus far as Sanchez is well rounded and can take the space away from Muradov. So either way while it lasts it will be sterner test, but I do think Muradov scores a KO here.

Prediction: Makhmud Muradov

Confidence in winner: 3

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Matt Frevola

This fight was patched together pretty much last minute and it shows. These guys are pretty far from each other in terms of skills. Frevola has a lot of energy but is technically pretty sloppy and wins people by wearing them out. All in all he is a middle of the road lightweight that got lucky last time to get a decision against Pena. As for Tsarukyan... well the guy fought Islam Machachev in his UFC debut and did well despite losing, and is one of the brightest prospects of the division.

So he should have Frevola outgunned everywhere here. Frevola might be able to steal a round on activity but I don't really see him wearing Tsarukyan out, as he is well-conditioned athlete as well. Though there might be some questions about that conditioning this time given the missed weight, but he should still be comfortable favorite here.

Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan

Confidence in winner: 4

Brad Tavares vs. Antonio Carlos Jr.

Almost forgot about this one. Different style matchup for Tavares after getting dominated by two strikers back to back. One has to wonder if a KO like he suffered last time will have a lasting effect on his durability, but Antonio Carlos Jr. is not the biggest power guy either way. Carlos has now back-to-back losses after very close decision with Hall and decision loss before that to Heinisch. 

It's definitely an interesting match-up, cause traditionally Tavares does well against guys like Carlos, but Carlos has 8 submissions in 14 fights, so if he does get a chance, he will find the submission, even if Tavares has never been submitted. 

Tavares ought to have striking advantage here, but he also is at big reach disadvantage, which really makes me think Carlos has this - he can probably grab hold of Tavares early and often and start working his BJJ. 

Prediction: Antonio Carlos Jr.

Confidence in winner: 3

Sara McMann vs. Julianna Pena

I don't know. Low-level women's MMA with evenly matched women. Both predominantly grapplers, so guess we see sloppy striking match that might go either way. Pena is more likely imo to snatch a submission, but McMann seems to be more fundamentally sound and thus likely to top control her way to a decision.

Prediction: Sara McMann

Confidence in winner: 2

Marcin Prachnio vs. Khalil Roundtree

Khalil is one of my favorite Muay Thai fighters. Unfortunately he hasn't really done much to become a fully-rounded MMA athlete, and as such is always susceptible to being takedown and dominated on the ground. Obviously the guy has great physical talents, long and powerful guy.

That bodes well against Prachnio who has been notoriously chinny through his recent career. Three back-to-back losses, all in the first round, all by KO. This is all set-up for a spectacular KO finish for Khalil. 

Khalil has been away for a long while after that humbling defeat against Cutelaba, so I figure he must have worked on his grappling in the meantime? I mean he has to, Tiger Muay Thai is one of the best camps around so I am sure they keep it real with him and have him wrestle much more than before. Either way, we have to presume Khalil still doesn't have great takedown defence.

Does it matter? Does Prachnio have the kind of skills to take it to the ground to begin with? I wouldn't bank on it. Only way he beats Khalil is if they just have wild slugfets and Prachnio catches him, otherwise this is all Khalil and early here.

Prediction: Khalil Roundtree

Confidence in winner: 3

Nik Lentz vs. Movsar Evloev

Great prospect vs. tough veteran. Lentz looked great against Allen, and Evloev arguably isn't as good of a striker as Allen is. Even against Allen Lentz arguably put the volume on so it was a close decision. 

Evloev can still hang in the striking with Lentz and probably takes the edge in that, cause Lentz probably doesn't have strongest chin any more and Evloev's wrestling is much better than Allen's. Lentz is unlikely to get a decision against guy who puts as high pace as Evloev does, so his only path to victory is a finish. Evloev has never been finished and he has excellent submission defence, so likely he edges out this fight in a decision.

It's still tough fight for Evloev and if there is any value, it probably would be on Lentz. Still, I can't see myself picking him against Evloev no matter the odds, so we go with our first instinct here.

Prediction: Movsar Evloev

Confidence in winner: 3

Amir Albazi vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Contrasting UFC debuts for these guys. Albazi looked great, showing a full set of skills, but Zhalgas kinda never showed up. At the same time, Albazi fought much easier opponent and Zhumagulov had to deal with Raulian Paiva who already has plenty of UFC experience. 

So I would expect this to be something of a close fight. Both have solid wrestling, but based on the one fight with big reservations Albazi seems to be the better striker which makes me lean on him here. Zhalgas got a lot of favorable judging in Russia which won't happen here. 

Either way it's probably gonna be a close decision and we are gonna know a lot more about these fighters after this fight, good test for each other in all ranges.

Prediction: Amir Albazi

Confidence in winner: 2