UFC on ABC 1 Post-Fight Analysis

Fights seem always so obvious in hindsight, but often aren't it beforehand. This was an event to drive home that point for the most part. My over/under experiment was largely a failure and I have to think if I even continue it in the midweek event. Either way, let's quickly go through the fights as usual.

Main Card

Max Holloway put in a performance for the ages. Hard to think of another as impressive performance like that where the opponent was still trying his best to the end but got dominated bell to bell for five rounds. It was a miracle that the fight went full five rounds.

Perhaps it shouldn't have, for Kattar took a career's worth of damage and there is genuine worry that he will never be the same again after this. Still, Max was the star of the show - Kattar is not a bad fighter, but Max was just on a completely different level. High volume, powerful strikes, accuracy, technical skill... it was all there and Kattar had no answer.

Kattar could barely stand at the end of 3rd round after a massive barrage of shots and multiple hard elbows landing. That probably should have been it, but it's not like Kattar wasn't throwing back - but for every moment he had, Max landed a long chain of combinations with lethal accuracy. Max kept throwing at a pace that would have had pretty much everyone else gassed, but even if he seemed to go all-out for the finish, he never slowed down one bit and won the fight via one of the widest decisions in UFC history, with only 2nd 50-42 scorecard in UFC history.

In the co-main veterans Carlos Condit and Matt Brown scrapped it out. It was alright, they probably would do well to both retire. Condit won a rather wide decision as Brown really failed to impose his wrestling game plan and gassed pretty hard as well. 

Santiago Ponzinibbio was the big favorite coming in against Li Jingliang, but it looks like his prime passed him while he was away with injuries. Perhaps it was that, perhaps it was ringrust, either way he did not get much done before missing a powershot and eating a hard counter to put him out for a first round KO loss. 

Joaquin Buckley's hypetrain got badly derailed by Di Chirico who put in one of the most spectacular KOs of the night. I call it hypetrain despite picking Buckley myself, as the jury was still out on how good Buckley actually was - the two wins he got weren't against the hardest competition. As for Di Chirico, he wasn't a big step-up, but he was solid enough to not get overwhelmed with Buckley's aggression. He invested in some kicks early and then got Buckley biting hard thinking there was a bodykick coming. Instead, Buckley took a shin to the temple and went out.

Dusko Todorovic seemed like the more solid fighter beforehand, but his over-reliance on flashy headmovement was always gonna end bad with someone as powerful as Soriano. I mean sure, keep doing the flashy stuff until you get stunned once. That's fine, now you gonna keep your guard up? No? Well sure now after getting rocked twice? What, still no? Well what about now... I guess you just aren't gonna do it. Herb Dean gave Dusko every chance to recover but he kept getting rocked until there was no choice but to stop it.

Prelims

Joselyne Edwards put in a great performance against Yanan Wu, who doesn't seem to have improved a lot since her UFC debut. Edwards was in good shape despite the short notice, put the volume on striking and was even close to submission finish in the first.

Carlos Felipe and Justin Tafa had a close fight. Tafa seemed to just be too much physically for Felipe in the first, but in the second Felipe started to really put the volume on him and managed to even hurt Tafa. 

Third round was the flip round for people. They really slugged it out like crazy with striking being very even. Tafa did manage to lean on Felipe a lot, but I don't think that is enough to win you rounds. I guess that's matter of taste, either way Felipe got the split decision this time but Tafa might feel hard done. 

Ramazan Emeev did enough for me to clearly beat Zawada 2-1 in rounds, but either way suppose it was close enough for some judge to score it the other way. Striking was very even and it seemed like Zawada was chopping away Emeev's lead leg, but in the end Emeev got enough top control to compensate. Decent fight, certainly much better than the borefest that preceded it. I though Vanessa Melo's volume would never be enough to win a UFC fight, but it actually turned out to be plenty when her opponent was content to just shadowbox in front of her. Moras should be embarrassed that she didn't just take Melo down, 3 takedowns would have amounted up to 3 rounds worth of top control. 

Austin Lingo put a beating on Jacob Kilburn, but Kilburn has a hard head, and managed to make it to a decision. Either way he needs to be cut as he isn't good enough for this level, at least Lingo might be able to get a decent run going in UFC even if he would struggle against real competition.

My picks

5/10 straight picks right, breaking nearly even, and 4/10 over/under picks right, taking a loss of about 4 bets. Which makes me think this is a one off and I won't do it again. You really have to get much more of them right for it to be worth it. 50 % right is not good for anything but at least in straight picks you are not getting massacred.

Hard to pick worst pick, I am tempted to pick Ponz cause I took him as so big favorite despite all the doubts over his age and ring rust. On the other hand Brown was my big pick and it seemed stupid cause he looked all of his 40 years of age. At least he was a decent underdog though. 

Best pick is clearer, Max turned out to look value despite odds seeming no great. Before needing to make that overbet the best pick had been Edwards, the debutant looked great value today.

Little breather and we go again in the midweek, chance to win everything back and more right away.