UFC on ABC 1 Preview & Predictions
Main Event: Max Holloway vs. Calvin Kattar
Hard fight to predict cause both are so high level. Arguably Max could have gotten the nod in the rematch against Alex, either way both are essentially champ level fighters. Is Kattar at that level? Well he for sure isn't far, as he has power and great boxing.
What he lacks is volume, and Max has bounds of that. Still, it's not like Kattar is exactly low volume either, so it is definitely very possible that Kattar can snatch a decision here by just having some good rounds. Either way obviously if this goes the distance you have to favor Holloway, cause he goes hard all five rounds, whereas Kattar tends to start slow and start taking the fight over later. Hard to do against Max.
Obviously Kattar is more likely to get a stoppage here, but you wouldn't bet on Max's chin cracking when he has never even been dropped yet. Still with so much volume being thrown by both guys it is not like overs is exactly a value bet either.
Prediction: Max Holloway / Over 4.5 rounds
Confidence in winner: 4
Co-Main Event: Carlos Condit vs. Matt Brown
Two former top contenders who are both arguably shot and on the last lungs of their career. Question is how shot is Matt Brown's chin actually? He was actually doing quite well against Baeza in his last fight before getting dropped. Condit might not be the same guy he once has, but he still can crack hard enough to KO another guy with pulverized chin.
I don't think Brown is that gone yet though. Obviously no longer exactly durable, he is 40 after all, but he can fight the grinding wrestling style that should easily beat Condit. I mean that's how it has gone? Wrestlers have not had tough time with Condit. To such extent, that I was willing to back McGee against Condit... only for McGee to not even try to wrestle at any point.
For sure Brown won't come with such a brain dead game plan.
Prediction: Matt Brown / Over 2.5 rounds
Confidence in winner: 4
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Jingliang Li
Back in the day when I was young, you know around 2016 to 2018, Ponzinibbio was a man on fire, tearing through the UFC welterweight division scoring many KOs along the way. Don't know really what happened to him since, but for the first time in over 2 years, he is going to fight again.
If we get the same dynamic striker that notched up 7 wins straight, I don't see the Leech having much chance here. Still, Li is a tough scrapper with a good chin, this ought to be a violent fight. It will be tough for Ponzinibbio to score another finish here as Li has only been finished once and never been knocked out.
The great thing for the tape is that both guys last fought against Magny so we get a pretty good side-by-side comparison. Ponz gave Magny half a career worth of damage, whereas Li got Magnyed into a decision loss. So my verdict is Li will get pretty soundly beat-up here, but probably can survive to a decision. If Ponz gets the finish, it will be late on through accumulation of damage. Li might snatch a takedown or two to catch one round, but really hard to see him winning this.
Prediction: Santiago Ponzinibbio / Over 1.5 rounds.
Confidence in winner: 4
Joaquin Buckley vs. Alessio Di Chirico
So Buckley got soundly beaten by Holland who by now is one of the top contenders of the division, then finished two contender guys violently. Let's face it though, those contender guys are barely UFC level, so jury is still out how good Buckley actually is. Either way Di Chirico is a natural progression from Contender guys. He isn't great, but he is solid and is eight fight UFC veteran.
Di Chirico is on a 3-fight losing skid, but at least he has shown durability by making it to decision all three times, including Holland who KOd Buckley. In all of his career Di Chirico has only been finished once, so Buckley KOing him would be an impressive feat.
As much as I think Di Chirico is tough to finish, just being durable only takes you so far. Buckley is the faster guy with more power and also more volume, so I do expect the damage start to pile up as the fight goes deep. Both have enough power to finish each other, but I do think there is still a reasonable chance this fight goes long.
Prediction: Joaquin Buckley / Over 2.5 rounds.
Confidence in winner: 4
Punahele Soriano vs. Dusko Todorovic
Two young, undefeated prospects go at it. In 17 combined pro fights, the two share just two decisions, so this one might be one that doesn't go the distance.
Punahele's KO of Piechota sure looks impressive, but you can't draw too much conclusions from that - Piechota has terrible defence and chin, so he was always gonna get KOd there. If there is anything to take away there, it is that Punahele seems fairly willing clincher/grappler, and that should play to Todorovic's favor.
I do feel like Soriano is the better stand-up fighter, and Todorovic is fairly hittable, but aside that everything seems to be in Todorovic's favor. I think he is better clinch fighter and grappler, and probably has more cardio should the fight go deep. Both of them being wild finishers might point to it being a short fight, but at the same time both have never been finished either so those things might cancel themselves out.
Prediction: Dusko Todorovic / Over 1.5 rounds.
Confidence in winner: 3
Phil Hawes vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Hawes has not seen second round since 2017. Imavov was barely starting as a pro then, but continuing the fast finish streak against him will be tough as Imavov hasn't been finished since his pro debut.
It's hard to bet against it though as Hawes has power and is the naturally bigger guy here. Imavov is fairly hittable even if I do think he is decent striker. He definitely was putting together some good offense in his fight against Williams.
It is hard to imagine how Imavov wins this though. I guess if he can make this a high-volume kickboxing fight? I do think if Hawes starts to get beaten in striking he can still outwrestle Imavov, but it's through Hawes slowing down that Imavov would have to win this.
Hawes fights with lot of pressure and aggression and Imavov hits a lot, either way this goes it probably won't go the distance.
Prediction: Phil Hawes / Under 1.5 rounds
Confidence in winner: 3
Yanan Wu vs. Joselyne Edwards
Not sure how high I can ride on someone who lost to Gina Mazany before, but at least Wu is fighting here against UFC newcomer. Edwards has a sloppy but violent style and somewhat weak takedown defence.
I don't usually like low level women's MMA, but this one could be a banger as Edwards like to throw long combinations and doesn't mind defence too much. Wu doesn't seem too urgent about grappling either, likes to just stand and bang... so they might just stand and trade in the middle.
If it comes to that, I think Edwards has the edge as Wu was outstruck by a much smaller woman and tends not have enough volume. Also the fight ending with a finish might be a value if they really do decide to trade, even if in women's fights that is a rare occurrence. Pantera has five first round finishes in her last eight fights, and Wu has also finished one fight in the first in UFC.
Prediction: Joselyne Edwards / Under 2.5 rounds
Confidence in winner: 3
Carlos Felipe vs. Justin Tafa
Someone's dropping in the first, but who? Probably Tafa, as Felipe has never been finished. They have mutual opposition in De Castro, whom Felipe beat via UD but who also KO'd Tafa in the first.
Felipe probably has the technique and volume here, but we have to remember Tafa is only five fights deep into his career, so he probably will show up improved. Either way he hits so hard he always has reasonably good chance to finish this at any point.
Longer fight favors Felipe obviously, but it is hard to see this going very long. All Tafa's fights have ended in a finish so either he is KOing or getting KOed. This one is up in the air. Either way Felipe is tough and blocks shots well... but at the same time he is all too willing to just shell up and take shots in the guard. I feel like it's a bad idea against Tafa who has very high natural power and even if he technically is inferior, there is nothing wrong with his offense.
I guess I will take Felipe.
Prediction: Carlos Felipe / Under 2.5 rounds
Confidence in winner: 2
David Zawada vs. Ramazan Emeev
Emeev has seen a decision in every one of his UFC fights. Defensively sound, but lacks killer instinct offensively. His last finish was back in 2016 while he was still fighting under M-1 banner.
Zawada is durable but tends to be too content to just lay on his back. Against the decision machine that is Emeev, that ought to be a bad look. Emeev gets the decision by top controlling all three rounds... probably?
Prediction: Ramazan Emeev / Over 2.5 rounds.
Confidence in winner: 3
Sarah Moras vs. Vanessa Melo
Very bottom of female MMA. I honestly don't rate either of these girls very highly, but I think Melo has so low volume generally speaking that it is very hard for her to ever win rounds. She is also very easy to hit and cannot get on her feet if taken down. So while I don't trust Moras to be any good either, I have to pick here here. It's more a pick against Melo than for Moras though.
Prediction: Sarah Moras / Over 2.5 rounds
Confidence in winner: 3
Jacob Kilburn vs. Austin Lingo
Kind of a low-level fight, both like to strike though so it should be a fun match-up. Lingo figures to be the slightly better one on the feet, and should there be any trouble, Kilburn does not have much takedown defence so Lingo can if necessary snatch rounds with some trip takedowns.
As for how long it takes, it should be pretty violent, so there is good chance this could be a short fight.
Prediction: Austin Lingo / Under 2.5 rounds.
Confidence in winner: 3
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