UFC on ESPN 20 Post-Fight Analysis

I like these 14 fight cards for the pacing. For previewing? Not so much. Either way let's go through the event quickly before I start working on UFC 257 previews. 

Main Card 

In the main event, Neil Magny showed complete inability to adjust his fighting style depending on his opponent. He had the physical tools to beat Chiesa for sure, but kept falling into his old habits of clinching and trying to grapple instead of just going for pressure and striking from the outside while defending takedowns.

Magny did successfully defend some takedowns, but instead of disengaging and making Chiesa work on the outside, he kept staying in the clinch and trying for some takedowns as well. Chiesa was the much better fighter in transitions and as such, ended up top controlling most of the rounds and getting dominant result. As far as a grappling match goes, it wasn't too bad, but Magny's performance certainly was disappointing.

In the co-main... Well I actually didn't really see it because of technical problems and since the fight was so short. Lazzez couldn't take the hard start that Alves had, though I did read that had Lazzez survived little bit longer, Alves might have had spent his entire gas tank already.

Before that we saw lowest of the low match-up in the light heavyweights. Vinicious Moreira did as he always does, look absolutely awful all through the fight - but hey, at least he got out of first round this time. All it allowed us to see was just how bad of a fighter he is though. No head strikes landed, no takedowns attempted, he hardly did anything and then completely exposed himself in the second to get KOd.

I mean I don't think it's far fetched to say that me, an amateur who started muay thai at almost age 30 and has done it only 3 years is skill-for-skill much better striker than him, even though I admit my understanding is still very limited. Obviously Moreira being bigger guy would probably beat me in a fight. Either way, enough bashing, Villanueva got a win finally and although he does seem outgunned against most of the division, at least he bought himself another fight in the UFC.

Roxanne continues to overperform our expectations of her, as she was completely outgunned by Araujo but managed to have some moments in the third and actually to make Araujo tire a little bit. Araujo would have still won even a 5-round fight I think, but if they had 7 rounds to work, I wonder if Modafferi could have eventually worn Araujo out... or if damage would have been too much. Either way that fight seemed straightforward on paper and turned out that in the end.

Tyson Nam failed to even test Matt Schnell's chin really, it was kind of a shitty, one-dimensional performance, I guess I should have been able to make that read in hindsight. Lerone Murphy was much faster and rangier than De Andrade, but did not manage to really put a hurting on him so the fight went to a decision. 

Prelims 

The featured prelim was also arguably the bet of the night as Akhmedov dominated as an underdog to get a second round finish. I wish I loaded up more money on that bet. Only thing surprising was just how much better Omari was, actually so much so that he made Breese quit instead of just decisioning like he usually wins his fights.

Ricky Simon put a pace on Gaetano Pirrelli and wore him out in under two rounds. Pirrelli did not manage show any of his striking skills or power. Tough debut though, interesting to see him against more appropriate level opposition in the future.

Su Mudaerji failed to KO Zarrukh Adashev, although he did hurt him a few times on route to an easy unanimous decision. Mudaerji's range was just too much all through the match.

Dalcha Lungianbula showed he has 1.25 rounds of gas tank but somehow managed to do enough to get two rounds against Perez to win a decision. I thought his only path to victory was via KO, but he prove me wrong.

Francisco Figueiredo won in a poor match against Jerome Rivera... neither of these guys should really be in the UFC, especially when guys like DJ and Romero aren't.

Mike Davis and Mason Jones put on a banger that we all expected, and to our surprise Jones almost matched Davis' skills and even managed to wear him out with constant pressure. Davis dug deep to win the fight, but both guys looked great.

I under-estimated Umar Nurmagomedov. This is not just another prospect with lot of hype behind him, the guy looks like a complete package and real deal. Morozov might have not been a big name, but no M-1 champ is an easy fight, but Umar made it look that way. This kid looks destined to be a champ.

Manon Fiorot also put in a great debut, but we need to see her against higher level of competition first before we can start riding too high on her. Still, solid all-round performance to finish her opponent. 

My picks 

I got 8/14 straight picks right, breaking even on them, but just like last time lost out big for about 3 bets on the over/unders. So for weekend's event I will give up on this experiment - it is turning out too expensive to keep going. Of course with just two events it might just be bad variance, but still with such sizable losses I just made bad picks. Either way it's back to the old way of doing things for UFC 257.

Best pick was easily Omari Akhmedov who always should have been a favorite against Tom Breese, and got through him even easier than was reasonable to expect. Worst pick is tougher but I suppose I made a clear mistake not seeing Tyson Nam was too slow and one-dimensional to expose Matt Schnell's durability issues.