UFC on ESPN 20 Preview & Predictions

I think the long event is full of decent opportunities for over/under bets, so I am gonna continue the experiment for one more event just to see if last time's loss was just bad luck or if I just am shitty at predicting if the fight goes the distance or not.

Main Event: Michael Chiesa vs. Neil Magny

I find this difficult fight to predict because Magny has not really fought anyone like Chiesa who would pursue the takedown against him. Magny has notched three UDs in a row, but all were against opponents who wanted to strike with him. With those Magny would just put the pressure on, clinch up and wear them out. 

Against Chiesa, not sure if Magny will do that, but either way he will put a volume and if the fight goes long, Magny is likely to pull ahead. Obviously Chiesa is very competent grappler so if he can get it down early, he can definitely win with a submission here. 

Magny needs to make Chiesa work hard for the takedowns and control the distance on the feet. If he does that, he probably gets one of the first three rounds and then cruises the championship rounds as his cardio advantage becomes evident. 

Chiesa struggled with much shorter RDA on the feet so I would expect Magny to be able to edge the striking with volume and 4.5 inch reach advantage, something I doubt Chiesa has never needed to deal with.

Prediction: Neil Magny / Over 2.5 rounds

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Warlley Alves vs. Mounir Lazzez

Alves will press forward and look to grapple, start hard and fade as the fight goes on. Lazzez showed in his UFC debut that he is a pretty competent fighter. He will counter Alves and look to keep this on the feet - the longer it goes like that, the more damage will accumulate and Lazzez should be able to get the finish somewhere in the 2nd round. 

Of course Alves might just take Lazzez down and submit him, after all there isn't that much info available yet of Lazzez, he has had only one high level fight and that against guy who notoriously gasses. Alves has a least a little bit more gas tank, but still think Lazzez gets the job done here.

Prediction: Mounir Lazzez / Under 2.5 rounds

Confidence in winner: 3

Isaac Villanueva vs. Vinicius Moreira

Awful quality fight. Why is this so high up the card and some bangers are hidden away? Either way Moreira either submits fast or gets KOd fast, Villanueva isn't the most potent striker, but Moreira has no defence or chin so even Villanueva should get the job done here.

Prediction: Isaac Villanueva / Under 2.5 rounds

Confidence in winner: 2

Roxanne Modafferi vs. Viviane Araujo

Guess we falling into the same trap of underestimating Roxanne again? Yeah... Guess we are. Araujo is faster striker but should it not work, she seems like she could win this fight via grappling as well. Of course, Modafferi is crafty can make this fight ugly as well. Still, I do expect Araujo to be too good here for her.

It still ought to be close fight unless it's just all stand-up and Araujo starches Roxanne. Either way, Araujo with relatively low confidence.

Prediction: Viviane Araujo / Over 2.5 rounds

Confidence in winner: 2

Matt Schnell vs. Tyson Nam

Nam has taken some KO losses in his career, but not for a while now, and the veteran seems to be the one to back in this matchup of journeymen. Nam has strung back-to-back KOs together of lesser competition, and while Schnell is better than those guys, he is awfully chinny, having already been KOd three times since 2016.

He is all too willing to stand in the pocket and trade, so Nam should be able to catch him and likely KO him. As for grappling, Nam seems to have solid enough takedown defence and isn't a slouch on the ground either, so I will lean on him here. It's not a clear match-up though, cause aside his defensive deficiencies, Schnell is a solid fighter nonetheless.

Prediction: Tyson Nam / Under 2.5 rounds

Confidence in winner: 3

Lerone Murphy vs. Douglas Silva De Andrade

Murphy has been somewhat under-estimated so far in his UFC career. He had a tough debut against Tukhugov that ended in a draw, then made quick work of very highly touted prospect Ricardo Ramos, in a fight where I picked the wrong guy as well. Fights aren't getting any easier with De Andrade, but while Murphy will be at an experience deficit, De Andrade is already 35 and clearly faded.

Last time around De Andrade barely scraped past also shot Renan Barao. He has aged another 1.5 years since that fight, so much more explosive, young and upcoming unbeaten fighter like Murphy should have a great opportunity for a standout performance. That's what I will go for.

Prediction: Lerone Murphy / Under 2.5 rounds.

Confidence in winner: 4

Omari Akhmedov vs. Tom Breese

Omari did not look great in his fight against Weidman, but he is not an easy guy to beat. Allen is basically much worse fighter than Omari is and had his way with Breese. That is kinda how I expect it to go here. Omari will put another one of his ugly performances in and win a decision here. Akhmedov might be much better fighter here, but he has not finished anyone since 2015, so am pretty confident this fight will be long.

Prediction: Omari Akhmedov / Over 2.5 rounds.

Confidence in winner: 4

Ricky Simon vs. Gaetano Pirrello

We on unders, that's what I can see immediately. Pirrello only has seen decision twice in his 20-fight career, and Simon puts on a pace and has some power as well, so either way this goes it probably won't last long.

As for who wins it, Pirrello obviously has looked great in the regional scene, but Simon has only lost against top of the line competition. 

Prediction: Ricky Simon / Under 2.5 rounds

Confidence in winner: 4

Su Mudaerji vs. Zarrukh Adashev

Su has every advantage here. More experience, much more reach, more power... Adashev got finished fast by Nam last time around, don't see it going any different this time.

Prediction: Su Mudaerji by KO / Under 1.5 rounds

Confidence in winner: 5

Dalcha Lungiambula vs. Markus Perez

Dalcha fought against probably the worst fighter in higher weight classes in his UFC debut and won, then fought one of the best guys in Ankalaev and got finished. Perez hasn't had a great record in UFC going 2-4, but you would think he has some chance here considering Lungiambula just isn't very good aside obvious physical talent.

I don't really trust either of these guys to be honest. Perez has higher striking volume and is probably the bigger submission threat, but Dalcha is bigger KO threat and likely the better wrestler. So it looks like the kind of fight where Perez is winning until he gets finished. That Du Plessis KO might have been first time he got finished, but he seemed to get hurt so easy... I think Dalcha hits harder than Du Plessis. 

Let's see the odds, I lean on Dalcha getting this, but Perez definitely is live dog and worth a punt if market overreacted to his last KO loss. Either way this is a fight I make a pick at all only cause I have to.

Prediction: Dalcha Lungiambula / Under 1.5 rounds.

Confidence in winner: 1

Francisco Figueiredo vs. Jerome Rivera

Figueiredo doesn't have that great takedown defence. He just walks his opponents down and wings powershots, doesn't have particularly high volume or anything either, and has fought pretty low-level competition thus far. 

However, he does fight similarly to how Nam fought against Rivera, and Nam took Rivera out of there early on in the 2nd after also landing many shots in the first. Bigger cage ought to be better for Rivera who does move on the outside well, but you also would think he fades towards the end if Figueiredo keeps pressuring him.

Only guy to ever KO Figueiredo was John Lineker, so I am not particularly worried of him getting finished. So I guess we are on Figueiredo here?

Prediction: Figueiredo / Over 2.5 rounds.

Confidence in winner: 2

Mike Davis vs. Mason Jones

Absolute banger hidden away deep into the prelims. Mike Davis is one of those guys who is already extremely high level, but still almost no one knows. He goes against highly rated prospect Mason Jones making his UFC debut after 10-0 career mostly in Cage Warriors. 

I think it comes down to simply Davis being technically superior and defensively better, obviously both are offensively very good. 

Prediction: Mike Davis / Under 2.5 rounds.

Confidence in winner: 4

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Sergey Morozov

Morozov lost back in 2018 for Evloev who has been in UFC since then, and has been unbeaten since that fight. He is powerful guy with a good striking technique, but will also have his hands full with Nurmagomedov who is unbeaten. 

Umar has fought much lesser competition of the two, as Morozov being an M-1 champ is no joke. Morozov is also in his prime, whereas Umar is largely still a prospect, so while I do think Umar can snatch rounds here and put in a suffocating grappling performance, and also has very high level striking, Morozov overall looks like the guy who should win this. It would be something very impressive for Umar to win here over a solid veteran in his prime.

As powerful as Morozov seems, I don't think there will be a finish though as Umar seems durable and has wrestling to protect himself if he gets hurt.

Prediction: Sergey Morozov / Over 2.5 rounds

Confidence in winner: 3

Victoria Leonardo vs. Manon Fiorot

On paper this ought to be extremely low-level women's MMA. Two UFC debutants, but these are new girls so there is some hope one of the might be actually decent. Fiorot has been pro only for bit over 2 years, but a run of finishes in UAE-based fight promotion sees her getting this chance in the UFC. Her opposition, just based on record has been awful though so Leonardo, who is a Contender alumni, ought to be a very big step-up in competition.

As low has her competition has been, Fiorot looks pretty solid and is definitely a powerful striker. She does enter in a straight line though so might get caught with some counters, either way there is no obvious flaw in her fighting, at least not ones that the weak competition has exposed. I expect close fight as Fiorot has looked great against weaker competition, while Leonardo has looked so-so against stronger one.

It seems like Leonardo might take Fiorot down and ground and pound her or Fiorot just demolishes her on the feet. Either way for a women's fight, there is pretty strong chance for a finish. I will pick whoever is the underdog as I feel this one could go either way.

Prediction: Victoria Leonardo / Under 2.5 rounds

Confidence in winner: 2