UFC 258 Post-Fight Analysis

That's it, 10 losing events in a row. Just like the tale has been lately, it was so close to a successful event, but just couple of little mistakes and it goes from a win to a loss. You have to be so on point in this game to be successful.

Main Card

Yay, I got the main event right for once! And I won a big bet, woo! Unfortunately by the time main event rolled around, I was chasing so much that I filled up on some prop bets on Usman late finish, and unfortunately it obviously didn't work out. Burns started strong but soon found Usman's jab to be too much to handle. It was all over in the 3rd round, too quickly for my props, so me trying to chase only ended up adding to my loss.

In the co-main event Maycee Barber showed she is indeed all athleticism. Grasso was the much better fighter, not flinching to the bizarre shadowboxing show that Barber was putting on, and catching her a lot with shots coming in. Furthermore she actually dominated the clinch with the stronger woman. 

Barber's coaches need to do a better job, some of the stuff she does is embarrassing for UFC level. If she had some skills to back up her power, she would be a real contender, as even with her sloppy approach she had Grasso in trouble by the end of the fight.

Ian Heinisch had some moments against Kelvin Gastelum, but ultimately Kelvin beat him in the grappling/clinch transitions and kept close enough to keep it mostly boxing, cruising to a victory. The odds were about right, probably little to no value on Heinisch there, but also not a terrible pick even if it didn't work out.

Maki Pitolo surprised everyone with wrestling heavy approach to the Julian Marquez fight, and had two rounds in the bag going into the final round. It was all just matter of holding on until the bell, but the constant pressure wore on him and Marquez eventually found the choke for an impressive comeback win. 

Ricky Simon didn't give Brian Kelleher a moment's peace, cruising to another victory that puts him in a strong position to challenge some of the top contenders of the division again. His cardio is tremendous. 

Prelims

Same could not be said about the cardio of the big lump of muscles that is Rodolfo Vieira, who had one very strong round but then completely gassed and got submitted by Anthony Hernandez. Hernandez definitely big value pick that I missed - someone was always gonna eventually expose Vieira's gas tank. 

Another weaponization of cardio was on show when Belal Muhammad swarmed Dhiego Lima. He also showed that if you are tough enough, you can just walk through constant leg kicks. Not an approach I would recommend, but Belal made it work for him this time. 

Polyana Viana pulled guard early against Mallory Martin and that was it pretty much, what followed was basically two minutes of constant submission attempt, culminating in an armbar finish. You don't wanna get on the ground with Viana. 

Andre Ewell could not really maximize his reach advantage against Chris Gutierrez. Early on Gutierrez had some trouble entering, the first two rounds were very close, but overall it was pretty clear Gutierrez was the more skilled fighter of the two, Ewell's 7 inches of extra reach just made it close. In the third though Gutierrez ran away with it, having Ewell a bit hurt on multiple occasions to win a decision.

Finally in the opening fight of the night Gabriel Green and Philip Rowe had a pretty poor quality fight that Green ultimately edged out in the decision. The guy isn't the most intelligent fighter, but he has good chin and hits hard so he won't be an easy win for anyone. 

My picks

As I stated, that makes it 10 lost evens in a row in a spell that can be only called rough. I got half of my picks right, so it wasn't terrible by any means. Just one more correct pick would have probably gotten me a winning night. Pitolo was very close to cashing, and that Vieira thing was something I should have been able to see before hand - it's definitely terrible to pick someone with one round of gas tank at those odds, so that is easily the worst bet of the night. All my other lost picks - Ewell, Pitolo, Barber and Heinisch at least had something positive to say in the end.

Well okay, so does Vieira, as he dominated the first round, but to say he would win that fight in that one round 3 out of 4 times is probably a stretch. 

Best pick was Kamaru as my big bet. He did have an early scare, but that was just to confirm us his durability - even in best case scenario for Burns he still did not come close to winning. Unfortunately with props missing even that fight was a losing fight. Still I can't criticize my overall assessment of the fight too much, expect that it was much more of a firefight than expected. You would have expected Usman to be more willing clincher there, but why not stand and bang if you are repeatedly dropping the guy with your jab.

All in all the big losing streak continues with another big chunk taken out of my bankroll. I will not be reloading so if I don't start turning my luck soon, there might be an end coming to this journey of ups and downs at least in the betting realm.

I don't know if it's delusional confidence to think that I can turn it around. I mean losing 10 in a row is not bad luck any more - it's mostly bad picks. I don't feel like I am predicting fights completely wrong though, like tonight I just missed small details that veered me to the wrong picks. Grasso, I correctly assessed that she is the more skillful fighter, she just wasn't as athletically outgunned as I thought. Gastelum, I correctly figured he has boxing advantage. Pitolo was winning his fight, he just got worn out. Vieira was the better grappler, I just forgot to account for the cardio game, which I admit is an elementary error.

It's about time I clean out those little errors of judgment. I am due for a win. I got the questionable honor of getting 10 straight losing events out of the way, maybe lady luck can finally turn for me finally in the next event.

Next card is essentially 15 fights of regionals, which ought to make it easier one to predict. Probably gonna be peppering a lot of small bets and hoping I get 2/3rds right.