UFC 258 Preview & Predictions

Will it be 10 in a row or will I finally snap the losing streak? Will see, not an easy event to squeeze a profit out of for sure.

Main Event: Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns

Honestly there is not much to analyze to this. Usman is up there as the best, most complete fighter. His fights are also the most predictable ones - he pins you on the fence and beats you up. I could make fun of it as it is not the most damaging or exciting style, but frankly unless you have his level of wrestling, you are not gonna stop that.

In other facets of the game Usman is also very good and has never been completely outgunned anywhere. With Burns being relatively easy to clinch up and the fight taking place in the Apex with not much space to move around, this fight ought to be a clinchfest and Kamaru's dominance. 

Obviously Burns has some opportunities on paper - he is very powerful, and powerful guys always have that puncher's chance, and he is very renowned grappler, so there is some degree of submission threat as well. I just don't see how he would get Kamaru down in the first place unless Kamaru decides to go there, and you would think Kamaru is too savvy on the ground as well to get caught up with anything. As for the KO, Burns won't have much time in each round to make it happen before getting blanketed, and Usman is not defensively bad striker, and he has always had a solid chin.

All in all I am hesitant to have complete confidence in winner in main events, but I really struggle to see anything but a miniscule chance of Burns winning this.

Prediction: Kamaru Usman

Confidence in winner: 5

Co-Main Event: Maycee Barber vs. Alexa Grasso

Barber might come back looking better than ever, but it's hard to be very high on her after Modafferi of all people managed to get her badly injured. It's been a year since that fight, so time will tell how well she has healed of that injury, either way as she is pure athleticism, it does not bode well for her.

Grasso will be in trouble if Barber drags her to the ground, which might very well be happening, but Barber is more power than technique on the feet so Grasso ought to be winning the fight if she doesn't get caught with anything.

That's a lot of ifs, and ultimately Barber is the bigger, more athletic girl. I would definitely be picking her if she had not suffered injury in her last fight and been away for a year. As for Grasso, she has been steadily improving through her UFC career and at 27, she should start to put it all together.

I dunno, I have to look at the odds here. I feel like if Barber is a big favorite, she is unplayable because of the uncertainties mention and because Grasso is a better fighter at least technically in the stand-up. Obviously power is the great equalizer and Barber has plenty of it. Pshh, as an underdog I have her here, she is bigger, just drag Grasso down and it will be trouble.

Prediction: Maycee Barber

Confidence in winner: 2

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Ian Heinisch

Gastelum is a very skilled fighter, but undersized for the division which is exactly where Heinisch will have advantage here. Gastelum is on a 3-fight losing streak but has faced absolute murderer's row in that time too. Heinisch is a drop in level of opponent but that doesn't mean this will be an easy fight by any means.

Heinisch got a fast finish last time around of GM3, but everyone finishes him fast these days so it is not that strong indication of how good he is. Still I have always liked Heinisch, he is very athletic and powerful and it seems like he is gonna keep up the volume as well these days.

Obviously Gastelum has the boxing advantage, but as neither of these guys have been KOd this will likely go the distance. Therefore Gastelum's problem will be his lack of reach. Heinisch is not one of the longest reach guys in the division, but he is still couple of inches taller than Gastelum and will likely employ an outside fighting style, trying to pick Gastelum apart from distance. 

It's likely gonna be a close fight, with close rounds and maybe a split decision.

Prediction: Ian Heinisch

Confidence in winner: 3

Julian Marquez vs. Maki Pitolo

After losing a split to Di Chirico, Marquez has been on the shelf for over 2.5 years. Polar opposite of Pitolo who has been keeping active, fighting 6 times in that same period. Results have been a little rough though, as Coconut Bombz is looking at back-to-back losses in his last two fights. 

Both guys pack some power, as Marquez has won 6 out of his 7 wins via KO, and Pitolo has one more KO than that though in much more fights. 

Pitolo has been expensive bet for me so far as I bet on him on both of those Stewart and Kasanganay losses. Marquez is hard headed and will walk him down, but also kind of lumbering so Pitolo should be able to keep landing. I don't know, it's a very close fight but with the long lay-off, you kinda have to lean on the more active fighter here.

Prediction: Maki Pitolo

Confidence in winner: 2

Ricky Simon vs. Brian Kelleher

Another pretty winnable match-up for Simon, who puts a relentless pace on anyone he faces. As for Kelleher, he is a veteran and a good submission threat, but generally that is not something you have to worry much about when it comes to Simon as he has beaten stronger grapplers in his time. 

Kelleher is also past his prime and a little bit chinny, whereas Simon is only entering his prime. So volume will be story here, Simon probably wins at least two rounds if not all three, and has some chance of getting a KO too.

Prediction: Ricky Simon

Confidence in winner: 3

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Anthony Hernandez

The problem Hernandez has here is his tendency to accept grappling. He can't be doing that against extremely high level grappler like Vieira. Obviously Vieira hasn't beaten really anyone of note in MMA, but this isn't the toughest match-up for him either. 

I suppose Hernandez bloodies Vieira up a bit on the feet as he is very rough with his stand-up still, but eventually Vieira will grab hold of him and then it's the beginning of the end. Just don't trust Hernandez to be able to just pick the BJJ ace apart for 3 rounds.

Prediction: Rodolfo Vieira

Confidence in winner: 3

Belal Muhammad vs. Dhiego Lima

Belal is just solid and good fighter, he has much more output and has lost to only high level guys. Lima is a peripherally UFC level talent, he does have some sort of chance to get a freak KO in striking but all in all Belal should just drown him in volume and edge out the rounds here.

Prediction: Belal Muhammad

Confidence in winner: 4

Polyana Viana vs. Mallory Martin

Viana has only ever won fights via finish, losing all the three decisions she has seen in her career. So the question becomes can she find a KO or a submission against Martin, who is 1-1 in UFC after 1 submission of her own and getting submitted by Jandiroba.

I do think Viana has a big grappling advantage here, and Martin got dropped and badly hurt by Cifers. All in all I do think Viana ought to be the clearly better fighter here and has a 4 inch reach advantage for good measure as well.

Prediction: Polyana Viana

Confidence in winner: 3

Andre Ewell vs. Chris Gutierrez

Both guys are skilled, but have relatively low ceiling, particularly Ewell, who despite being very fast and rangy just does not have the kind of gas tank to threaten the top of the division.

I would say overall Gutierrez is the better fighter with the more rounded skillset, but Ewell has massive reach advantage here and has been tested against tougher competition. It's an interesting style match-up cause Ewell also maximizes his reach with a very wide stance, which naturally will make stopping Gutierrez' best weapon, the leg kicks, difficult. 

Basically Ewell will beat up Gutierrez bad with his speed and reach in the 1st. Gutierrez has never been finished though, so there is a chance he makes it through there, and then Ewell will start to slow down and the leg damage will start to accumulate cause you better believe he will be trying to kick the shit out of that leg.

All in all this seems to me either an Ewell finish fast or war of attrition win for Gutierrez. I would take Gutierrez with decent enough odds, but Ewell favorite in my book for all the physical advantages.

Prediction: Andre Ewell

Confidence in winner: 2

Gabriel Green vs. Philip Rowe

Can't say I feel particularly confident about either of this guys. Green has good chin and keeps walking you down, and he is gonna need that to deal with Rowe's big reach advantage. If he does get inside, it seems Rowe is a bit chinny, that being said, the Shahbazyan brothers have been knocking everyone out so getting dropped by either of them isn't so bad. 

Green probably has the grappling advantage here and would do well do get some takedowns. So it's really a balancing act between how much forward pressure you think Green can put vs. how much Rowe can take advantage of his reach. Rowe has the tools physically to put a clinic on Green like D-Rod did, but he isn't as skilled fighter. Rowe beat Shahbazyan more simply cause he got exhausted after first round rather than by being so skillful. Green is not gonna gas out like that, but also not likely to hit as hard.

Prediction: Gabriel Green

Confidence in winner: 2

Miranda Maverick vs. Gillian Robertson

Robertson is in trouble against anyone who stops the takedown, which makes her a good matchup for the highly touted prospect in Maverick. Maverick should have good enough wrestling to keep it standing, and has good power to deliver damage.

If Robertson does win, Maverick is unlikely to take a lot of damage as it would just be a submission win.

Prediction: Miranda Maverick

Confidence in winner: 3