UFC Fight Night 184 Post-Fight Analysis

Nine losing events in a row. I don't think I am clueless, I actually think I have learned a lot about the sport, it is just fine details that are going wrong. Let's see what went wrong this time.

Main Card

Beware of old men in a world where men die young. Well, not so much today. Both Frankie and Overeem got flattened, turning a winning event into a losing one for me. As for Overeem, it was an awful performance but in hindsight you could have seen him having much more of a struggle with Volkov. It's just wrong pick, though Overeem did land a few solid shots early on in the first. He really failed to impose much clinch or grappling on Volkov though, and eventually Volkov just ran away with it.

As for Frankie, he could have been in his prime and it would have not made a difference, if you eat that knee you're always going out. Another absolutely masterful performance by Sandhagen, I gotta stop picking against him (of course the one time I did pick him he lost). Sterling is the only guy though in the division who as of now has a chance against Sandhagen, no one is gonna outstrike him. Though I do think fight against Yan would be interesting, I still think this Sandhagen beats him.

Either way Frankie needs to retire, he is done as any kind of contender after getting his chin pulverized like that. Even if you can't blame the KO for his age, he is gonna fall off the cliff after taking a shot like that. Hopefully he does the right thing and calls it a career.

I can say it already, Michael Johnson pick was the most awful pick of the night. I mean yeah, Johnson is the far superior fighter, and yeah, Guida has not really beaten anyone of note in the recent years... but still, he has a chin and never stops pressuring you. It's weird of me to have completely overlooked the cardio game aspect of it given my own fighting style is all playing the cardio game. Simply a bad pick, Guida was clear value. The way the fight went, he should have indeed been a big favorite. Missed out on value big time there.

Everyone was very disappointed with Manel Kape, but given I was not impressed on his tape, I actually thought he did much better than I expected. It was clear Pantoja wasn't exactly comfortable in there with him, and Kape was winning most exchanges... his problem was just lack of volume and timidity, perhaps due to it being his debut, or simply by Pantoja putting in very tight performance. He stayed patient, didn't put himself in the harms way, and in a veteran manner just edged out the rounds closely with just enough output. Not the clearest of victories, but he did deserve it even if all in all it looked Kape has the better skills.

Diego Ferreira and Beneil Dariush had pretty close replica of their first match. Wild striking, slick grappling, and Dariush taking another decision win. You might give one round to Ferreira but all in all it looks like he wasn't even in his best, looks like his prime did indeed pass him by. 

If you are gonna be a low-level fighter, it is better to be predominantly a grappler than a striker. I know that, yet I ignore things that I already know by picking the already unreliable Mike Rodriguez. So obviously Marques just wrapped himself on Rodriguez for the whole fight, cruising to a decision. Another pick that was simply bad, too superficial analysis.

Prelims

Devonte Smith looked about as talented as he could have looked against Jaynes. Kept him at the end of his range and let the damage accumulate. Jaynes was always gonna be a long shot and got stopped eventually.

Karol Rosa turned out to have been value despite the wide odds. Edwards couldn't stop the takedown and wasn't really any better on the feet either, but it's still a good learning experience for the young fighter. 

Lara Procopio had a tremendous performance as an underdog and easily defeated McCann via decision. Seungwoo Choi was another underdog that turned out to be a great pick, perhaps the best pick of the night. I expected Zalal to be slightly better fighter, but his performance wasn't really that good, Choi's style really shut his game down. 

Timur Valiev didn't give a sniff to Martin Day, got a dominant decision win. The opening fight was quick work as Ode Osbourne immediately proved that my assessment prefight was correct - Rivera would have needed long time in the training room just to work on the holes in his striking game. Instead he took a bad KO for a small payday.

My picks

Half right again, two bets down. Honestly in terms of my recent results, that wasn't bad, and I wasn't badly wrong in lot of the fights. I went for lot of long-shot underdogs and not all of them worked out. Still, it was typical for me in that small bets were winning, big bets losing. Worst pick, as stated, was Michael Johnson, closely followed by Mike Rodrigues. In hindsight both fights could have been correctly picked with information available beforehand, and both would have been value as underdogs.

Best big was another underdog pick, Seungwoo Choi, closely followed by Beneil Dariush. Choi is only the better pick cause it wasn't so obvious beforehand, Dariush was obvious at even money against a guy who he now has won 5 out of 6 rounds with. 

All in all the takeaway from this event is that I needed to deepen the analysis a bit so that I don't always overlook something when it comes to these fights. We have big UFC 258 next, I usually do terribly in PPV events, so perhaps it will be 10th losing event in a row... Hopefully can avoid that distinction.