UFC Fight Night 184 Preview & Predictions
2020 was rough, 2021 has started even rougher. Let's see if I can start to turn things around in this fight night. Admittedly, I watched even less tape than usual and am going more with gut feel. Sometimes it's good not to overanalyze these fights.
Main Event: Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov
Volkov looked huge in the weigh-ins, and probably has striking advantage here. Overeem has become more of a clincher of late, and against Volkov's reach, that probably would be a smart strategy. Volkov has been susceptible to getting taken down and then unable to get back up, but then again Blaydes is one of the best wrestler's of the division.
Still I do think Overeem has a decent chance here to get rounds with takedowns or even score a KO via ground and pound. Volkov putting on size is a bit of an unknown factor here, does that mean he has crazy power, or just that he fatigues faster?
Overeem's chin has been holding up decently well lately despite fighting some big punchers, but there isn't lot of miles left on it for sure. So you can't pick Overeem here with full confidence, but I still think he is the pick here.
Prediction: Alistair Overeem
Confidence in winner: 3
Co-Main Event: Cory Sandhagen vs. Frankie Edgar
Cory has a big advantage on the feet here, but Frankie went full 3 rounds with Munhoz so his chin isn't completely gone either. Obviously Sandhagen is likely to keep it on the feet and might cruise to a decision, but it's a 3 round fight with small octagon... so I like Frankie's chances here.
Sandhagen probably beats everyone in the division in striking, it's only through wrestling that people have a chance against him, and Frankie is still one of the best wrestlers in the division. All he needs is two takedowns to win two rounds if he can just keep it on the ground.
All in all, Sandhagen probably wins it, and might do so spectacularly, but it is lot closer fight than the odds suggest.
Prediction: Frankie Edgar
Confidence in winner: 3
Michael Johnson vs. Clay Guida
I am ready to get hurt again. Johnson is the better fighter, let's see how he finds way to lose this fight. I love Clay but he is almost 40 years old and his last two wins are BJ Penn and Joe Lauzon, it actually shouldn't even be competitive but like I said, you can never trust on Johnson.
Prediction: Michael Johnson
Confidence in winner: 4
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Manel Kape
I rate Pantoja very highly. Sure, he lost against Askarov and Figueiredo, but Askarov has a tough style to deal with, and Figueiredo is the current champ, so I don't know why I see some predicting Kape win. I mean the guy seems decent and powerful, but he has lost to worse guys in Japanese scene.
Obviously Kape has a chance on the feet he is good and powerful, but so far Pantoja seems to be one of the more durable guys in flyweight division, and Pantoja ought to have the grappling advantage.
Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja
Confidence in winner: 4
Cody Stamann vs. Askar Askar
Stamann lost against Rivera but held his own in that fight, and Rivera is one of the best guys in the division. As for Askar, he is a hyped up prospect, but just like the fight above, my gut feeling is to go with the more proven commodity. Stamann has almost as much experience in UFC has Askar has total pro fight experience, that ought to make all the difference here.
Prediction: Cody Stamann
Confidence in winner: 4
Diego Ferreira vs. Beneil Dariush
They are a bit different fighters now than when they first fought, but Dariush seemed to have the better of that first fight in all ranges, and has lately seemed to find some more power to his strikes as well, even if his striking isn't always the prettiest.
What makes me lean on Dariush even more here is the fact that he is hitting his prime now, whereas in terms of age Ferreira might be bit past it or right at the end of his prime. It's a shame cause Ferreira really is one of the best fighters in the division, but this Dariush fight is tough for him to win and he never got really high profile wins.
Still, Ferreira has a way to win here via submission or via volume in striking, he wore out Pettis, which is 2020 isn't that great victory but in general he has been able to pressure guys into wilting.
Prediction: Beneil Dariush
Confidence in winner: 3
Mike Rodriguez vs. Danilo Marques
Rodriguez is not great, but at least he is somewhat like an UFC fighter with good length. Marques is a barely viable regional grappler who only has an UFC win cause he faced perhaps the worst UFC LHW ever. Well, no, Vinicius Moreira still has that title. Too bad there isn't Khadis vs. Moreira on the undercard.
Prediction: Mike Rodriguez
Confidence in winner: 4
Devonte Smith vs. Justin Jaynes
We have 5 first round finishes in Smith fights in a row, and win or lose, he has never seen a decision. Jaynes is just 3 fights deep into his UFC career, and has seen a decision but also has lot of first round finishes in his resume. So all in all fireworks in the first and we probably don't see a decision here?
Obviously Smith seems to be the better fighter with the superior physical characteristics, however Jaynes puts pressure on people and hits hard, so it can go either way in the first given how chinny Smith seems to be. If it gets out of the first, I would imagine Jaynes' pressure to start wearing on Smith. I think Jaynes is a live dog here, lot of underdogs here that I am liking.
Prediction: Justin Jaynes
Confidence in winner: 2
Joselyne Edwards vs. Karol Rosa
If this is all striking, I figure Edwards would just edge it out, but Rosa is the better-rounded fighter than thus could easily snatch close rounds. So yea, Rosa should be tight favorite in this one. Most of the time she has this via close decision. Edwards is bigger finishing threat, but think it's unlikely she KOs Rosa who has never been KOd and even less likely that she will snatch up a submission. I like La Pantera, but I gotta be honest, I think Rosa has this.
Also it's a fast turnaround for Edwards, it might be a good thing but it might also backfire, either way it's bit of an unknown quantity here.
I did ended up picking Edwards, think its a close fight and odds are too wide.
Prediction: Joselyne Edwards
Confidence in winner: 2
Molly McCann vs. Lara Procopio
Eh, I don't feel confident one way or the other. Molly has some UFC wins, but she has short reach and isn't elite, more just scrappy and tough. Procopio is inexperienced and lost her UFC debut, but put on a good fight and impressive volume in that fight.
So I think that combined with having 4.5 inches of reach advantage is enough to carry her to a decision win.
Prediction: Lara Procopio
Confidence in winner: 1
Seung Woo Choi vs. Youssef Zalal
This ought to be a close fight. Zalal moves better and has more weapons, but Choi is long, powerful and has a good clinch. At the Apex in the smaller octagon I think Woo Choi can corner Zalal much better and land his powershots.
Still obviously Zalal is very skilled and can pop counters from the outside, most of the time winning close decisions, but Woo Choi will land damage in this fight and can win via KO or close decision as well. Close on, gotta be on the underdog here.
Prediction: Seung Woo Choi
Confidence in winner: 2
Jerome Rivera vs. Ode Osbourne
We have lot of fast turnarounds on this card. Rivera probably shouldn't have accepted this fight though, he is really rough on the feet and would be better off taking a while to improve that facet of his game.
Rivera might have grappling advantage, but he doesn't have the best offensive grappling and Osbourne is a fairly powerful... Pretty chalky, but I have to pick Osbourne here. Hope I am wrong though, never want a young guy like that to take brain damage, but Rivera made Nam look like elite striker, that is how bad he is on the feet.
Prediction: Ode Osbourne
Confidence in winner: 3
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