UFC Fight Night 185 Post-Fight Analysis

Ten event losing streak is finally over, as I hit 75 % correct pick rate and end 3 bets up. Honestly a good event without many mistakes, nice to have one of those for a change.

Main Card

It's ironic that I thought that Blaydes wrestlefucking Lewis would somehow reduce the chance of him getting KOd. It was quite the opposite. Lewis looked very limited when Blaydes had patient approach, keeping it technical range kickboxing and using his reach. It was a poorly set-up takedown that gave Lewis the opportunity to send Blaydes into the shadowrealm.

It was a bad KO. Blaydes as a top-level fighter might be a goner. He was out cold with a single shot, then ate two hard and accurate shots right to the chin while already unconscious. It's hard to see him ever coming back from that. If he wasn't chinny before, now he will be. 

Anyway I said Lewis always has at least that 20 % chance. It was a percentage I came up on the spot, but based on that, I should have bet on him and the odds would have been just right. Lewis has his stock rise with another win, but he is still extremely limited fighter outside of just being powerful guy. What's next? Rematch with Volkov? I don't know if it makes much sense for either.

So main event didn't work out for me, but co-main surely did, as Yana Kunitskaya was a tough out for Ketlen Vieira in just the way I expected her to be - physically strong, tough clinch fighter that Vieira had hard time keeping down... Well, not exactly. Vieira actually had a ton of top control in the fight, but aside for threatening some submissions, didn't do much with it, whereas Yana was peppering her with little shots all through the fight, leading to very wide strike stats in favor of Yana.

It became something of a controversial UD for Yana. Obviously in damage she by far outdid Vieira, but people felt all that top control should have won Vieira two rounds. I don't know, I try to not give myself headache about the muddled, subjective judging, but I feel like in the end the right girl won - Yana landed much more damage, Vieira's top control was more stalling than anything, and Vieira finished fight tired and busted up. That's a win for Yana in any case in my book, and it worked for my bet as well with the underdog cashing.

Unfortunately my big bet was as usual the awful bet of the night, but at least I was not alone in predicting Derrick Minner is one round or bust kind of fighter. As usual he came out of the gates putting a devastating pace on Rosa, one that ought to have tired him out, right? Well, whether it was Minner improving his conditioning or Rosa just being much more worn by the relentless pace, Minner just kept on top all through the fight and won a wide decision deservedly. Poor performance from Rosa, just never really get going.

Aleksey Oleynik also had a pretty torrid night. Couple of desperate takedown attempts, then it was all Chris Daukaus who kept pounding him with unanswered shots as Oleynik was out on his feet for a while before the ref finally stepped in. Oleynik probably needed to retire 3 fights ago, now it's just sad as he has no chin or athleticism left. I mean I guess there is always outside chance he wraps up some strangulation, but there is no reason for him to keep fighting.

Phil Hawes vs. Nassourdine Imavov was another fight that sparked some controversy, or rather comparisons to that Kunitskaya fight. Hawes got two rounds primarily through top control despite being hurt, and gassed bad for Imavov to almost finish him in the third round. 

There is definitely parallels between those two fights, but to be fair Hawes did do much more with his top control even if he probably lost the damage and striking. It's a grey area definitely, if you call the two decisions inconsistent, I don't disagree, but at the same time they weren't exactly same situations. Either way I got lucky in the close decision to have Hawes win. 

Arlovski weathered the first round against Tom Aspinall despite being badly hurt, but in the end it was still a quick finish for Aspinall as he scored a takedown in the beginning of the second round and wrapped up a submission. Arlovski isn't as far gone as Oleynik is, but he also needs to consider retirement before he starts getting pulverized on a regular basis.

Prelims

Danny Chavez was a big disappointment against Jared Gordon, low output, just lost all the rounds. Powershotting is fine but you gotta land something solid. Obviously I was also wrong about Gordon's chin being as gone as I thought.

Eddie Wineland on the other hand proved to be another washed up fighter that probably needs to retire. Back-to-back bad KO losses - I can accept him getting flattened by Sugar, but Castaneda is not such a big power guy that he should be getting KOd like that. I don't know, at that age it's not a good look, but we will see.

Nate Landwehr and Julian Erosa were looking like they would put together a war for the ages, but a bit premature stoppage after Landwehr got dropped ended it before it properly started. Still you can't blame ref for stepping in, Landwehr was badly hurt and while he has a history of recovering, you can understand why ref stepped in considering the way he fell. Good win for Erosa as the underdog, and good for me to get the better fighter with higher odds.

Shana Dobson looked as awful as she always was. Casey O'Neill was never gonna gas like Agapova did and put a relentless pace on Dobson for dominant TKO win. Dobson is 4-5 and lost to a very inexperienced newcomer, will the long overdue cut finally come or do they have another fighter whose record needs padding? I mean it's really cruel injustice that likes of DJ, Romero and Rory McDonald aren't in the UFC but absolutely awful fighters like Dobson, Khadis Ibragimov and Vinicius Moreira are. 

Anyway enough of that tangent, Aiemann Zahabi was still as hesitant and low-volume as usual, but it doesn't matter when you find the perfect killshot to put the young Rodriguez out. Some shoddy striking defence allowed the opportunity and Zahabi took full advantage, hope he gets his wish of quick turnaround and we seem him turn up the volume for next fight.

The opening fight between Spivak and Vanderas turned out to be far less competitive than I expected. Sure, I thought Spivak was better and would cruise to decision popping his jab, but Vanderas actually couldn't offer anything even in the grappling department. Spivak kept him under him and pounded him out for a brutal KO - another stoppage that came quite a while late, Vanderas took a lot of unnecessary extra damage. Doesn't bode well for him to be dominated by someone like Spivak.

My picks

As said, I hit 9 of my 12 picks, running up a moderate 3 bets profit. Win is a win and I am just relieved to snap up the embarrassing losing streak. You don't lose 10 events in a row without being somehow off, but perhaps I am starting to learn from my mistakes - or perhaps it was just good luck to get the Kunitskaya / Hawes decisions go my way. 

Best pick was probably Kunitskaya, it was a bit lucky but at the same time I did assess the fight correctly, figuring Yana is a tough challenge for Vieira. Worst pick was clearly Rosa, Minner just absolutely dominated him and was actually a huge value in that fight. 

All in all a good event, out of my 3 wrong picks one was kinda unlucky (Blaydes), 1 was a common mistake (most people on my feed expected Rosa to win if he makes it out of 1st) and 1 was just kinda meh (Chavez).

It wasn't perfection, but all things considered good going. Next week we have another 14 fight event (which will probably slim down to 10-12 fights as usual because of cancellations) full of good betting opportunities, decent chance to continue winning streak, then we get a welcome week off to reflect and rest.