UFC Fight Night 185 Preview & Predictions

 Lot of low confidence picks tonight, let's see if I get lucky to finally end this losing streak.

Main Event: Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis

Pretty clear fight on paper. Lewis has 20 % chance against anyone because of his crazy power, and bit more with fighters more willing to stand with him, but with Blaydes he has only short time to find that KO shot cause Blaydes will be looking to get on top of him as soon as possible. We saw against DC Lewis doesn't really have much defence against any real wrestlers, even gassed Latifi managed to stay on top of Lewis a lot. 

So it would seem pretty no-brainer here to predict a late Blaydes KO here via ground and pound. Only doubt about that is merely if Lewis can land that killshot. Blaydes has been called chinny but I think that is wrong assessment, only guy who has KOd him has been Ngannou and Ngannou is a freak of nature. You could say Lewis is similar freak of nature though, but as said, he is unlikely to have much chances to land that hard shot before he gets taken down.

Prediction: Curtis Blaydes

Confidence in winner: 4

Co-Main Event: Ketlen Vieira vs. Yana Kunitskaya

Pretty interesting co-main event. Vieira is the grappling specialist, but they are pretty evenly matched on the feet. To get to the mat, Vieira has to close the distance and deals with Yana's strong clinch. Overall I think Vieira is the better fighter, but Yana is an interesting problem to her cause I don't think she is beating her in volume or power on the feet, and it might turn out to be hard to drag Yana to the mat.

Still Yana is more physical strength and somewhat limited technically. I would give a slight edge overall to Vieira in this fight, but Yana might be playable if she is clear enough underdog.

Yea, I will take a stab at it.

Prediction: Yana Kunitskaya

Confidence in winner: 2

Charles Rosa vs. Darrick Minner

Minner is very dangerous early on, but doesn't have gas tank to win a 3-round fight, and as Rosa is competent grappler who has never been subbed, I think it's very unlikely Minner catches that first round finish here. So vast majority of time Rosa either cruises to decision or finishes Minner once he gasses.

Prediction: Charles Rosa

Confidence in winner: 4

Aleksey Oleynik vs. Chris Daukaus

Two ways this goes, either Oleynik gets blasted to oblivion immediately, or he lumbers into some grappling position and wraps himself on Daukaus and that's all she wrote. Either way I trust on Daukaus' grappling defence more than I trust on Oleynik's 43-year-old chin than has been KO'd 8 times already.

Prediction: Chris Daukaus

Confidence in winner: 3

Phil Hawes vs. Nassourdine Imavov

Already wrote this when fight was originally booked, copypasted: "Hawes has not seen second round since 2017. Imavov was barely starting as a pro then, but continuing the fast finish streak against him will be tough as Imavov hasn't been finished since his pro debut. 

It's hard to bet against it though as Hawes has power and is the naturally bigger guy here. Imavov is fairly hittable even if I do think he is decent striker. He definitely was putting together some good offense in his fight against Williams. 

It is hard to imagine how Imavov wins this though. I guess if he can make this a high-volume kickboxing fight? I do think if Hawes starts to get beaten in striking he can still outwrestle Imavov, but it's through Hawes slowing down that Imavov would have to win this.

Hawes fights with lot of pressure and aggression and Imavov hits a lot, either way this goes it probably won't go the distance."

Only thing that has changed sicne I wrote that is that I just feel generally like I trust on Hawes less than then, aside that the prediction is still the same.

Prediction: Phil Hawes

Confidence in winner: 2

Andrei Arlovski vs. Tom Aspinall

This one is a tough call. Arlovski did just enough against Boser to win a decision. With each fight though, he gets older and older. I would say Boser is more skilled than Aspinall, but doesn't carry as much power and doesn't have the size. So this one isn't going to be easy for Arlovski.

As much as Aspinall has looked great, he has not fought any real quality opposition so this will be a first real test for him. Still I do find myself worrying that Arlovski is just gonna get dropped by first solid shot that lands similarly as happened against Jairzinho. 

Still it looks like Aspinall is close enough in skill here to make his youthfulness and power work against Arlovski's experience and age. At the same time, Arloski can take him to a place where no one has taken him before if fight goes deep. So he would be worth a punt as a sizeable underdog. It's also worth noting that Aspinall got all his wins in 1st round, and the two fights that made it to second ended there in his loss. That makes me lean on picking Arloski here, if he can still take those big shots that are gonna be coming his way.

I dunno, I hope Arlovski wins but the odds just aren't big enough.

Prediction: Tom Aspinall

Confidence in winner: 3

Jared Gordon vs. Danny Chavez

Gordon is the better fighter here, but it certainly seems his chin is gone and Chavez cracks hard. I just can't pick him in that scenario even if I do think it is possible Gordon also hurts Chavez or that Gordon can outgrapple and top control his way to a decision victory.

Prediction: Danny Chavez

Confidence in winner: 2

Drakkar Klose vs. Luis Pena

I thought at first, "well this is a close match-up", but upon closer look, Klose probably is more clearly better striker than I thought and has definitely the higher output. Pena's 5 inch reach advantage ought to pose some problems for him, but he has beaten better strikers in UFC.

The only X factor here is Pena's grappling. Klose generally struggles with guys who wrestle him and if Pena can pin him to the fence and drag him down, he definitely has a very viable path to victory here. 

Still it does feel a little chalky here to go for Klose as clear favorite. I dunno, I guess I take him, but not with the kind of certainty others have picked him. Pena is a trickier opponent than people are giving credit for.

Prediction: Drakkar Klose

Confidence in winner: 2

Eddie Wineland vs. John Castaneda

Wineland got baldy KOd in his last outing and that is the kind of KO that guys might never be the same again after, especially at his age and with his mileage. Still, Castaneda isn't the biggest power puncher so there is decent chance this might go the distance.

Castaneda isn't bad, but he isn't great either. Moderate volume approach with some grappling mixed it. Debut against Wood was always gonna be tough. He is fairly hittable so Wineland's power punches might find their target, but aside that there is nothing fundamentally wrong with him and he showed good durability in that Wood fight.

He has only been KOd once in his career so that makes me think he can absorb whatever powershots Wineland lands. As for who is winning rounds, I think it's very close and it would be a close decision, but Wineland perhaps not being the same any more tilts my judgment to Castaneda. Let's look at the odds first though before making final call.

Think the odds are about right, so let's snap up Castaneda here.

Prediction: John Castaneda

Confidence in winner: 2

Nate Landwehr vs. Julian Erosa

Erosa is the better, more skilled fighter. He ought to have a grappling advantage, and on the feet he throws a lot of volume and actually moves his head a bit. However, he has tendency to get drawn into slugfests and is chinny at best, whereas that is exactly where Landwehr shines. He doesn't move his head whatsoever, but has crazy chin, and packs some power.

Erosa would be smart to grapple here, but getting Landwehr down is probably gonna be tough. All in all I think there is two ways Landwehr wins this fight, either by getting Erosa to trade in the pocket and KOing him, or wearing him down via forward pressure. On the other hand Erosa should be the guy to more consistently win rounds as long as he does not get dropped.

I'm gonna look at the odds but because of Erosa's durability issues, I would say Landwehr needs to be favorite for me to pick Erosa here. He is ever so slightly... Guess I go for the better guy then, let's hope Erosa's chin holds up.

Prediction: Julian Erosa

Confidence in winner: 3

Casey O'Neill vs. Shana Dobson

Someone said you need help if you are betting on this fight, but I say you need help if you are willing to watch this fight without anything riding on it. Dobson beat Agapova but I still maintain she is probably the worst fighter in the UFC. Could O'Neill be even worse? We will see, but she has fought five round fights and has what looks to me better wins than Dobson so I am gonna pick her here.

Prediction: Casey O'Neill

Confidence in winner: 1

Chas Skelly vs. Jamall Emmers

For someone who just showed up from the regionals, Emmers has looked very good. He has experience, length, solid technique and durability, and fights with a decent volume. He was competitive against Giga Chikadze and then was a clear winner against Cachero. 

Skelly is tougher opponent than Cachero though, he is 11-fight UFC veteran already, but has been out of the Octagon for about 1.5 years now. At age 35, one has to wonder if we gonna get the same guy as before. Even before, he wasn't really the most skilled fighter, just a tough guy who would grab you and not let go. In his last fight Griffin would have beaten him if he did not engage in the grappling nonstop.

Emmers is much more technical fighter than Griffin is. I just expect him to be too competent everywhere. Obviously Skelly can just human backpack him, but its hard to win rounds like that these days when you get lit up in the process and that is exactly what I expect Emmers to do. I also think he is too good on the ground to allow Skelly to submit him.

Prediction: Jamall Emmers

Confidence in winner: 4

Aiemann Zahabi vs. Drako Rodriguez

You think of Aiemann Zahabi and first thing in your mind is that he is a 7-2 prospect who is of course the brother of the renowned coach Firas Zahabi... Then you look up his Sherdog and realize the dude is already 33. So yeah, calling him prospect is a bit late at this point but for a 33-year-old fighter, he does not have a ton of high-level experience and perhaps the impression that he is a prospect has stood in my head because he hasn't really fought much since 2017 when he was still arguably something of a prospect at 29. 

Since getting KOd that year by Ramos, Zahabi has only fought once, a decision loss in 2019. That fight against Vince Morales showed that while he has good fundamentals, and looks like he could be a fun fighter to watch with a very fleet-footed style, he was hesitant and cautious, perhaps still from the fact he got so badly KOd in the previous fight.

Here he is fighting against a fighter that could legitimately be called a prospect, 24-year-old Drako Rodriguez. Even before getting a contract in the contender series, Drako has a pretty solid record with his lone career loss coming in a KOTC title fight against Tony Gravely who is also in UFC now.

On paper it seems like a close fight, but with Zahabi's hesitation to throw volume and cautious style, he is always likely to lose rounds and Drako is the bigger KO threat here. Zahabi should be the more skilled fighter, but it's not a good sign he fights so rarely, has been off for a while and lost against relatively weak competition last time around. Zahabi also likely has the grappling advantage, but he doesn't really pursue grappling a lot in his fights.

Zahabi is quite sizeable underdog... Think he is worth a small stab as it is.

Prediction: Aiemann Zahabi

Confidence in winner: 2

Sergey Spivak vs. Jared Vanderaa

Maybe it's just me but I am not impressed by Vanderaa. Obviously a big strong guy, but the guy he beat on Contender just wasn't very good - short guy with no gas tank. Vanderaa failed initially to take him down and got popped with few hard shots. He seems more of a wrestling guy with a lumbering stand-up.

As for Spivak, he doesn't strike me as a hot prospect or anything, but he is young, already has some good UFC experience, and doesn't have any glaring faults. You kinda feel like he can keep Vanderaa off him and even if they do end up clinching, I don't think Vanderaa can dominate him in the clinch like Tybura did. 

So my prediction is that Spivak keeps moving away and popping him with straight shots, edging a decision. 

Prediction: Sergey Spivak

Confidence in winner: 3