UFC Fight Night 186 Post-Fight Analysis

So yesterday's event was something I want to quickly forget, hell it makes me feel like I shouldn't even be writing these posts cause I write is worth jack shit since I obviously get more of them wrong than right. Anyway that wouldn't be the right move since I get out of this swamp by working harder, not less. Anyway let's get to going through the fights, shouldn't take too long since there was only 9 of them this time.

Main Card

Main event was a snoozer. Gane was so comfortable to just poke Rozenstruik from distance, and Rozenstruik didn't have any urgency to go for the killshot and thus lost all rounds without hardly landing any damage on Gane. Great win for Gane, but big blow for my bets. Makes me feel like Rozenstruik is never getting KO there enough of the time so guess my pre-fight prediction of always needing to big guys some chance wasn't exactly right. I don't know.

At least the co-main went right, but it wasn't an exciting fight with Ankalaev and Krylov engaging mostly in a grinding clinch/grappling fight. Ankalaev 29-28, on to the next one.

Munhoz and Rivera had by far the most exciting fight of the night, with Rivera's leg getting blasted to oblivion but him toughing it out and repeatedly blasting Munhoz on the chin. Somehow Munhoz still keeps his chin though and eventually won somewhat clear decision. Got that one wrong, but as it was at least close one, I give myself a pass for that one.

Mayra Bueno Silva won two rounds against Montana De La Rosa with some vicious striking, but a fence grab in the first where she also got top controlled meant the fight would only be a majority draw.

Kevin Croom put in one of the most awful performances of the year, just going for endless takedowns without getting them and being completely gassed already after 5 minutes. It was as in he was in terror to actually have to fight with Caceres. There were many good underdog picks on the card, and this is the one I chose? My own stupidity never ceases to amaze me. Bruce Leeroy on a 4 fight winning streak now, but all low-level competition, so step-up coming up.

Prelims

I thought Hernandez would just steamroll through Thiago Moises, but it seems like Moises' striking is now starting to catch up to the rest of his game, making him a very dangerous guy to face. It was either that or Hernandez just not being very skillful overall although he is athletic and active. No shame in losing to Moises, but the fact he was surprised about the decision and thought he won is kinda embarrassing. 

I figured Davis is a tough style match-up for Mazo, but didn't have the balls to pull the trigger on the underdog cause she always gets her face turned to mincemeat. That happened this time too, but it didn't matter cause Mazo was mostly glued on the mat. Should have at least gotten this one right, just a poor pick.

Vince Cachero caught Ronnie Lawrence with some good shots, but in the end was nowhere near good enough to deal with Lawrence's constant takedowns and movement. Somebody will clock Lawrence unconscious coming in one of these days, when he faces a good enough opponent, but this time he got a dominant victory.

In the opening fight I got lucky that a poor unanimous decision was awarded to Dustin Jacoby. It was a close fight, but both numbers and damage were in the end on Grishin's favor and as an underdog, he would have been value.

My picks

So despite getting lucky with the first pick being a poor decision, I only got 3 picks right out of 8 and should have gotten 2 out of 8. That is unacceptable performance and results in 5 bets down in just 8 fights, and again it should have been about 7 bets down. It wasn't like there was some weird things happening. Rivera v Munhoz is pretty much only pick that could have gone either way with the way the fight turned. Jairzinho was never beating Gane. Moises was comfortably better than Hernandez. Hope Croom gets fucking cut after that embarrassment.

So yeah, just terrible reads all over the place. Davis was also a big missed value. In a way that was the worst miss but at the same time I can at least give myself some slack that I understand why I didn't pick her - she is terrible and slow on the feet and did get constantly hit by Mazo... but in the end Mazo didn't have much of takedown defence or escape ability.

I managed to cut the losing streak last week, but bad reads still continue to plague me, the reason there was a losing streak in the first place. Obviously there is a huge card next week, a good chance to bounce back.