UFC Fight Night 186 Preview & Predictions

I'm glad I do these previews late cause we lost a ton of fights for this event.

Main Event: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Cyril Gane

The common thread between significant favorites Gane and Ankalaev in this weekend's main events is that both are well-known, highly rated prospects. Unproven prospects are usually great betting opportunities, cause people doubt their skills and doubt the hype is real, but in this case, both Gane and Ankalaev are thought to be the real deal.

That opinion is of course well warranted; both are likely to be far better fighters than their opponents. Gane is undefeated, and Ankalaev only lost 5 seconds in his career and thus has 1 loss in his record. However, both are fighting dangerous opponents, in heavy weight classes, with just 4 ounce gloves on.

What I am trying to come at is do you really think 250 pound Jairzinho only gets a knockout a tiny percentage of the time here? Regardless of the skill, you have to give a reasonable chance for such huge, powerful dude. Case in point, Derrick Lewis last week. 

So we on Rozenstruik here. I still want Gane to win, he is technical and skillful with high potential, and deserves to make a run for the title - it's just odds play here, the wide odds are silly and Rozenstruik has more than a punchers chance to find something in 25 minutes here.

They both fought JDS last time, Bigi Boy going first, really cracking the already cracked chin which probably helped Gane, who isn't remarkably powerful for a heavyweight, to get an easier TKO against JDS few months later. I mean Gane basically rocked JDS with a jab, I don't think that shot would have rocked JDS as bad two years ago. Either way it finished the fight that was mostly cruising for Gane, but JDS did land couple of heavy shots of his own in the end of 1st. I think if Jairzinho finds just a handful of openings like that, he has a good chance to win here.

Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Nikita Krylov vs. Magomed Ankalaev

Already touched upon this fight in the previous fight's preview, so it's the same situation basically. Krylov obviously isn't as powerful as Bigi Boy, but he is dangerous in other ways and very experienced. Ankalaev has been going from strength to strength all his career and has probably Krylov covered in all ranges, but the odds once again are a bit wide for a fight with such dangerous fighters. 

When you look at Krylov's record, you quickly realize the guy has only lost against very elite competition in recent years - Blachowicz is the current champ and Texeira current #1 contender. On the other hand, Krylov didn't look that great against Walker in all honesty. Sure he got the decision but looked extremely gassed by the end. 

Ankalaev on the other hand looked as comfortable as you could with a monster like Cutelaba, finishing him in the 1st hardly absorbing any damage. So yea, I look at the odds and want to play Krylov, and he is definitely an experienced fighter in his prime who can always snatch up something, but at the same time Ankalaev is so high level it is hard to pick against him. So in the end, guess the odds are kinda right? Krylov is never winning a decision and this goes mostly to a decision, so yeah.

Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev

Confidence in winner: 3

Montana De La Rosa vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

Close fight on paper but I think Silva hits hard and has good killer instinct on the ground as well. She is much more likely to finish this fight.

Still it's relatively early in both girls' careers so not much info to by, but Silva is both accurate and powerful striker, but can be beaten with volume. De La Rosa has more volume and is a willing grappler, but isn't necessarily the best at dragging the fight on the mat.

Obviously a close fight here, see it going to a decision a lot, but I still like Silva here.

Prediction: Mayra Bueno Silva

Confidence in winner: 3

Pedro Munhoz vs. Jimmie Rivera

Somehow I was under the impression that Rivera is chinny, but then looked at the murderer's row he has fought and all of them went to decisions except a headkick by Moraes. 

So Rivera actually has solid chin, but not as solid as Munhoz has, as Munhoz absorbs absolutely everything but has never gotten KOd. Eventually the wheels will fall off from these kind of fighters. 

Rivera ought to have the grappling advantage but they might end up pretty much negating each other in that realm so this might be a case of just standing and banging. 

I guess this is one of those underdog or pass fights, cause I see this being an extremely close striking match where Rivera might have some edge thanks to some grappling threat, longer reach and better kicks. Maybe I would still have Rivera as slight favorite. 

Worth noting they fought before and Rivera got a split, which indeed further confirms my analysis. Age-wise, Rivera is more likely to be closer to his prime now.

Prediction: Jimmie Rivera

Confidence in winner: 3

Alex Caceres vs. Kevin Croom

Croom claimed a big scalp last time around by taking out Roberts on short notice in 31 seconds. Now fighting 10 pounds down against Caceres you would think this is a step down in competition, but at the same time the last win might have been a fluke cause we didn't really learn much of him based on that.

We just know he hits hard and has good killer instinct when he has you hurt. Caceres on the other hand is very known quantity at this point. Good outside striker and grappler, but tends to sometimes give up positions and ends up losing decisions. He has become something of a gatekeeper and keeps fighting guys with only couple of fights in UFC, which has helped him get on a win streak here.

But yea, so little quality info available here that it's hard to make a pick. Seems like Croom might be a bit chinny, but Caceres is kind of a pillow fist, so unless he catches Croom with a headkick it's unlikely to be a finish from him, and Caceres has only been KOd once. So this kind of has a feel of a close, razor thin decision. So I suppose I pick whoever is the underdog.

Prediction: Kevin Croom

Confidence in winner: 2

Alexander Hernandez vs. Thiago Moises

Close fight, obviously Moises can win this by making it a grappling fight, but usually Hernandez has struggled against good strikers, not so much against grapplers. He has been steadily facing his level competition since he came to UFC before getting an easy win in his last fight. Moises is somewhere in between, competent but not at the level of some guys Hernandez has beaten.

Would still expect a close fight but Hernandez has had pretty solid takedown defence and has the speed and range in striking. 

Prediction: Alexander Hernandez

Confidence in winner: 3

Alexis Davis vs. Sabina Mazo

I would say Mazo is the better fighter, and likely to be the one to be improved as well, but Davis' forward pressuring, wrestling style ought to be tricky one for her to handle. If Mazo has practiced her takedown defence and straight shots and stays on her bike, she could have an absolute stormer of a performance here, on the other hand Davis might grind out an ugly split decision where she gets bloodied up.

Davis is already 36 so is unlikely to add any new layers to her game, her striking is slow and she is very hittable. Small cage does help her though in closing the distance. Mazo is great at kicks and clinch, but if anything kicking a lot would make her more susceptible to get taken down.

So all in all there is definitely a path to victory for Davis, gotta check the odds if she is playable here. Meh, they look about right, in those instances I rather play the favorite to win.

Prediction: Sabina Mazo

Confidence in winner: 3

Vince Cachero vs. Ronnie Lawrence

Ronnie Lawrence is basically a poor man's Sandhagen who gets hit coming in a lot but also grinds out lot of takedowns, but isn't very good at keeping the top position. He fights at a high output so is always likely to grind out a decision until he fights someone who either KOs him, matches his output or manages to outgrapple him.

So the question is if Cachero is any of those. I'm... not sure really. He has couple of KOs, looked rough in his UFC debut, but it was the debut and tough opponent in Emmers on short notice, so you can't say he is bad just based on that. I did not see that much of a glimpse though that would suggest to me that he is gonna find the killshot against Lawrence or defend takedowns well. I dunno, he is tough and durable, I give him that, but think he is losing most of the time here two rounds to one.

Prediction: Ronnie Lawrence

Confidence in winner: 1

Dustin Jacoby vs. Maxim Grishin

Both guys grabbed a win in their previous outings, but both against pretty much bottom of the barrel opposition.

Jacoby ought to have the striking edge here, and on top of probably being the more skillful fighter, he has much higher output. Grishin just tends to not throw very much. For his low volume he does have a lot of finishes, so guess a KO is his way to victory here, but Jacoby has only been TKO'd once and overall I would say it's a low possibility.

Grapping is a bit of an X factor here, I guess Grishin ought to pursue grappling, but I don't really see him being busy enough to hustle for the takedowns. Still, as a bigger guy that might make picking Grishin more appealing. Still think it's gonna be mostly kickboxing and Jacoby edges a decision. 

Prediction: Dustin Jacoby

Confidence in winner: 2